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テクノロジー·Apple

Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

Market icon
テクノロジー·Apple

Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

NEW
Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$9,056 Vol.

Polymarket

March 20

$8,600 Vol.

69%

March 31

$456 Vol.

86%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
音量
$9,056
終了日
Mar 31, 2026
マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 5:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Grok, xAI's newly launched iOS app, rocketed to #1 among free apps in the US Apple App Store last week, fueled by Elon Musk's high-profile promotion and integration of real-time X data, displacing ChatGPT after its own prior dominance. Trader sentiment leans bearish on its staying power, with implied probabilities hovering around 40-50% for dethronement by year-end, reflecting app store volatility where viral hype often fades within days amid aggressive competitor pushes from OpenAI's GPT-4o updates, Google's Gemini refinements, and Anthropic's Claude expansions. Key risks include post-launch novelty drop-off and holiday download surges favoring shopping apps like Temu; watch Musk's X activity and December App Store charts for momentum shifts.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「March 31」で86%、次いで「March 20」が69%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、86¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に86%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 16, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?」の現在のフロントランナーは「March 31」で86%であり、市場がこの結果に86%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「March 20」で69%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。