Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with "No" implying a 91.5% probability, driven by late April 2026 reports that Apple halted development after the October 2025 M5 refresh flopped. Total sales languish around 600,000 units since the 2024 debut, plagued by high return rates, the device's 1.3-pound weight causing discomfort, and persistent $3,499 pricing amid competition from lighter Meta Quest alternatives. The Vision Pro team has been reassigned—some to Siri enhancements—shifting focus to AI-powered smart glasses over premium mixed-reality headsets. While WWDC in June could reveal software boosts or surprise pivots, supply chain silence and no mass production signals reinforce the unlikelihood, barring an abrupt strategic reversal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with "No" implying a 91.5% probability, driven by late April 2026 reports that Apple halted development after the October 2025 M5 refresh flopped. Total sales languish around 600,000 units since the 2024 debut, plagued by high return rates, the device's 1.3-pound weight causing discomfort, and persistent $3,499 pricing amid competition from lighter Meta Quest alternatives. The Vision Pro team has been reassigned—some to Siri enhancements—shifting focus to AI-powered smart glasses over premium mixed-reality headsets. While WWDC in June could reveal software boosts or surprise pivots, supply chain silence and no mass production signals reinforce the unlikelihood, barring an abrupt strategic reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$4,332終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with "No" implying a 91.5% probability, driven by late April 2026 reports that Apple halted development after the October 2025 M5 refresh flopped. Total sales languish around 600,000 units since the 2024 debut, plagued by high return rates, the device's 1.3-pound weight causing discomfort, and persistent $3,499 pricing amid competition from lighter Meta Quest alternatives. The Vision Pro team has been reassigned—some to Siri enhancements—shifting focus to AI-powered smart glasses over premium mixed-reality headsets. While WWDC in June could reveal software boosts or surprise pivots, supply chain silence and no mass production signals reinforce the unlikelihood, barring an abrupt strategic reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$4,332終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with "No" implying a 91.5% probability, driven by late April 2026 reports that Apple halted development after the October 2025 M5 refresh flopped. Total sales languish around 600,000 units since the 2024 debut, plagued by high return rates, the device's 1.3-pound weight causing discomfort, and persistent $3,499 pricing amid competition from lighter Meta Quest alternatives. The Vision Pro team has been reassigned—some to Siri enhancements—shifting focus to AI-powered smart glasses over premium mixed-reality headsets. While WWDC in June could reveal software boosts or surprise pivots, supply chain silence and no mass production signals reinforce the unlikelihood, barring an abrupt strategic reversal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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