Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 keynote announcing iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models for a September 18 release has driven the market-implied odds to 100% Yes. This aligns with Apple’s long-standing annual cadence for flagship iPhones, reinforced by supply-chain reports, iOS 27 timing, and official event scheduling that placed premium models on track for fall availability. Traders view the Pro variants as fulfilling the iPhone 18 series release in 2026, despite the base model shifting to spring 2027 under a split-launch strategy. While near-certain consensus reflects verified hardware shipments and pre-order windows, slim residual risks such as last-minute manufacturing delays or regulatory holds on new features could theoretically alter exact availability, though none appear imminent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
>99% 確率
$251,302 Vol.
$251,302 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
>99% 確率
$251,302 Vol.
$251,302 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 keynote announcing iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models for a September 18 release has driven the market-implied odds to 100% Yes. This aligns with Apple’s long-standing annual cadence for flagship iPhones, reinforced by supply-chain reports, iOS 27 timing, and official event scheduling that placed premium models on track for fall availability. Traders view the Pro variants as fulfilling the iPhone 18 series release in 2026, despite the base model shifting to spring 2027 under a split-launch strategy. While near-certain consensus reflects verified hardware shipments and pre-order windows, slim residual risks such as last-minute manufacturing delays or regulatory holds on new features could theoretically alter exact availability, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$251,302終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 keynote announcing iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models for a September 18 release has driven the market-implied odds to 100% Yes. This aligns with Apple’s long-standing annual cadence for flagship iPhones, reinforced by supply-chain reports, iOS 27 timing, and official event scheduling that placed premium models on track for fall availability. Traders view the Pro variants as fulfilling the iPhone 18 series release in 2026, despite the base model shifting to spring 2027 under a split-launch strategy. While near-certain consensus reflects verified hardware shipments and pre-order windows, slim residual risks such as last-minute manufacturing delays or regulatory holds on new features could theoretically alter exact availability, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$251,302終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 keynote announcing iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models for a September 18 release has driven the market-implied odds to 100% Yes. This aligns with Apple’s long-standing annual cadence for flagship iPhones, reinforced by supply-chain reports, iOS 27 timing, and official event scheduling that placed premium models on track for fall availability. Traders view the Pro variants as fulfilling the iPhone 18 series release in 2026, despite the base model shifting to spring 2027 under a split-launch strategy. While near-certain consensus reflects verified hardware shipments and pre-order windows, slim residual risks such as last-minute manufacturing delays or regulatory holds on new features could theoretically alter exact availability, though none appear imminent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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