Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cadence, combined with multiple credible reports from mid-2026 confirming that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models are on track for a September 2026 debut alongside the first foldable iPhone, underpins the 96% market-implied probability for a 2026 release. This split-launch strategy—pushing only base iPhone 18 variants into spring 2027—still qualifies under typical resolution criteria because higher-end models carrying the iPhone 18 designation will ship within the calendar year. Supply-chain or component delays remain the main realistic risk, though Apple's recent in-house modem progress and production timelines suggest low likelihood of full slippage; regulatory hurdles appear minimal for a standard hardware rollout.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$114,346 Vol.
$114,346 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$114,346 Vol.
$114,346 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cadence, combined with multiple credible reports from mid-2026 confirming that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models are on track for a September 2026 debut alongside the first foldable iPhone, underpins the 96% market-implied probability for a 2026 release. This split-launch strategy—pushing only base iPhone 18 variants into spring 2027—still qualifies under typical resolution criteria because higher-end models carrying the iPhone 18 designation will ship within the calendar year. Supply-chain or component delays remain the main realistic risk, though Apple's recent in-house modem progress and production timelines suggest low likelihood of full slippage; regulatory hurdles appear minimal for a standard hardware rollout.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$114,346終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cadence, combined with multiple credible reports from mid-2026 confirming that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models are on track for a September 2026 debut alongside the first foldable iPhone, underpins the 96% market-implied probability for a 2026 release. This split-launch strategy—pushing only base iPhone 18 variants into spring 2027—still qualifies under typical resolution criteria because higher-end models carrying the iPhone 18 designation will ship within the calendar year. Supply-chain or component delays remain the main realistic risk, though Apple's recent in-house modem progress and production timelines suggest low likelihood of full slippage; regulatory hurdles appear minimal for a standard hardware rollout.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$114,346終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cadence, combined with multiple credible reports from mid-2026 confirming that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models are on track for a September 2026 debut alongside the first foldable iPhone, underpins the 96% market-implied probability for a 2026 release. This split-launch strategy—pushing only base iPhone 18 variants into spring 2027—still qualifies under typical resolution criteria because higher-end models carrying the iPhone 18 designation will ship within the calendar year. Supply-chain or component delays remain the main realistic risk, though Apple's recent in-house modem progress and production timelines suggest low likelihood of full slippage; regulatory hurdles appear minimal for a standard hardware rollout.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問