Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cycle, backed by supply-chain reports and analyst consensus from sources like Bloomberg, drives the 96.5% market-implied odds that at least premium iPhone 18 models will reach consumers in 2026. Recent coverage highlights a planned September launch for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant featuring upgrades such as variable-aperture cameras, while base models may shift to spring 2027. This split strategy aligns with Apple's history of incremental hardware refreshes and iOS updates without full-year gaps. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential manufacturing delays on advanced components or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear unlikely to eliminate all 2026 availability given current timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$116,503 Vol.
$116,503 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$116,503 Vol.
$116,503 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cycle, backed by supply-chain reports and analyst consensus from sources like Bloomberg, drives the 96.5% market-implied odds that at least premium iPhone 18 models will reach consumers in 2026. Recent coverage highlights a planned September launch for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant featuring upgrades such as variable-aperture cameras, while base models may shift to spring 2027. This split strategy aligns with Apple's history of incremental hardware refreshes and iOS updates without full-year gaps. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential manufacturing delays on advanced components or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear unlikely to eliminate all 2026 availability given current timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$116,503終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cycle, backed by supply-chain reports and analyst consensus from sources like Bloomberg, drives the 96.5% market-implied odds that at least premium iPhone 18 models will reach consumers in 2026. Recent coverage highlights a planned September launch for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant featuring upgrades such as variable-aperture cameras, while base models may shift to spring 2027. This split strategy aligns with Apple's history of incremental hardware refreshes and iOS updates without full-year gaps. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential manufacturing delays on advanced components or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear unlikely to eliminate all 2026 availability given current timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$116,503終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cycle, backed by supply-chain reports and analyst consensus from sources like Bloomberg, drives the 96.5% market-implied odds that at least premium iPhone 18 models will reach consumers in 2026. Recent coverage highlights a planned September launch for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant featuring upgrades such as variable-aperture cameras, while base models may shift to spring 2027. This split strategy aligns with Apple's history of incremental hardware refreshes and iOS updates without full-year gaps. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential manufacturing delays on advanced components or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear unlikely to eliminate all 2026 availability given current timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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