Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and CNT/MDA in early April show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 2–9 points in first-round scenarios for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, but second-round head-to-heads are statistical ties or narrow Flávio leads, aligning with Polymarket trader consensus pricing Flávio at 40% over Lula's 38.5%. Flávio's surge reflects consolidation of right-wing votes after Ratinho Júnior's March withdrawal and amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, challenging Lula's incumbency edge despite his March 31 announcement of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate. High rejection rates for both frontrunners and polarized turnout dynamics keep the contest razor-thin; economic data, candidate registrations by August, or debates could create separation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 40.0%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 39%
レナン・サントス 6.5%
フェルナンド・ハダジ 4.3%
$51,986,281 Vol.
$51,986,281 Vol.
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
40%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
39%
レナン・サントス
6%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
4%
カミロ・サンタナ
2%
ロナウド・カイアド
2%
ロメウ・ゼマ
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
1%
ジェラウド・アルクミン
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・レベロ
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 40.0%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 39%
レナン・サントス 6.5%
フェルナンド・ハダジ 4.3%
$51,986,281 Vol.
$51,986,281 Vol.
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
40%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
39%
レナン・サントス
6%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
4%
カミロ・サンタナ
2%
ロナウド・カイアド
2%
ロメウ・ゼマ
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
1%
ジェラウド・アルクミン
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・レベロ
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and CNT/MDA in early April show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 2–9 points in first-round scenarios for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, but second-round head-to-heads are statistical ties or narrow Flávio leads, aligning with Polymarket trader consensus pricing Flávio at 40% over Lula's 38.5%. Flávio's surge reflects consolidation of right-wing votes after Ratinho Júnior's March withdrawal and amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, challenging Lula's incumbency edge despite his March 31 announcement of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate. High rejection rates for both frontrunners and polarized turnout dynamics keep the contest razor-thin; economic data, candidate registrations by August, or debates could create separation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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