Brazil's Senate has historically shielded STF justices from impeachment despite periodic opposition requests, reflecting the high constitutional thresholds—two-thirds approval in both chambers—and institutional incentives to preserve judicial independence. Recent congressional probes, including the April 2026 Banco Master report recommending proceedings against Gilmar Mendes, Alexandre de Moraes, and Dias Toffoli, have not advanced beyond recommendations, consistent with prior patterns under multiple administrations. The short window until 2027, coupled with STF efforts to tighten its own impeachment rules and broad legislative support for the court's role in recent high-profile cases, reinforces trader consensus that removal remains improbable. Shifts in Senate composition after future elections or an unforeseen crisis generating cross-party momentum could still alter the trajectory.