Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment, a record that continues to shape trader assessments amid dozens of petitions filed against figures such as Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes. Recent attempts, including a 2026 CPI report recommending proceedings tied to the Banco Master case and opposition pressure following Bolsonaro-related rulings, have stalled due to Senate leadership refusals to advance cases, procedural thresholds requiring broad majorities, and institutional caution against direct confrontation with the judiciary. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes further raised standing and voting barriers before partial reversal. While 2026 elections could alter Senate composition and create openings, cross-party reluctance and entrenched rules sustain the strong consensus against removal by the end of 2026. Late-breaking scandals or unified congressional majorities remain the primary variables that could still shift outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$83,291 Vol.
$83,291 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$83,291 Vol.
$83,291 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment, a record that continues to shape trader assessments amid dozens of petitions filed against figures such as Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes. Recent attempts, including a 2026 CPI report recommending proceedings tied to the Banco Master case and opposition pressure following Bolsonaro-related rulings, have stalled due to Senate leadership refusals to advance cases, procedural thresholds requiring broad majorities, and institutional caution against direct confrontation with the judiciary. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes further raised standing and voting barriers before partial reversal. While 2026 elections could alter Senate composition and create openings, cross-party reluctance and entrenched rules sustain the strong consensus against removal by the end of 2026. Late-breaking scandals or unified congressional majorities remain the primary variables that could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
音量
$83,291終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment, a record that continues to shape trader assessments amid dozens of petitions filed against figures such as Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes. Recent attempts, including a 2026 CPI report recommending proceedings tied to the Banco Master case and opposition pressure following Bolsonaro-related rulings, have stalled due to Senate leadership refusals to advance cases, procedural thresholds requiring broad majorities, and institutional caution against direct confrontation with the judiciary. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes further raised standing and voting barriers before partial reversal. While 2026 elections could alter Senate composition and create openings, cross-party reluctance and entrenched rules sustain the strong consensus against removal by the end of 2026. Late-breaking scandals or unified congressional majorities remain the primary variables that could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$83,291終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment, a record that continues to shape trader assessments amid dozens of petitions filed against figures such as Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes. Recent attempts, including a 2026 CPI report recommending proceedings tied to the Banco Master case and opposition pressure following Bolsonaro-related rulings, have stalled due to Senate leadership refusals to advance cases, procedural thresholds requiring broad majorities, and institutional caution against direct confrontation with the judiciary. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes further raised standing and voting barriers before partial reversal. While 2026 elections could alter Senate composition and create openings, cross-party reluctance and entrenched rules sustain the strong consensus against removal by the end of 2026. Late-breaking scandals or unified congressional majorities remain the primary variables that could still shift outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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