**Maduro faces US federal drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism charges after his January 2026 capture by US forces in Caracas.** He and his wife remain in pretrial detention at Brooklyn’s MDC pending a June 2027 trial, with defense motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity grounds scheduled for November 2026 argument. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time because acquittal, charge dismissal, or negotiated resolution remain plausible before or during proceedings that are still months away. Shorter or mid-range sentences carry low implied odds given the serious charges and potential mandatory minimums, while a 60+ year outcome reflects the risk of conviction on conspiracy counts carrying life exposure if the case proceeds to verdict without dismissal. Recent developments, including Maduro’s September motion citing sovereign immunity and his wife’s health-related release request, underscore ongoing legal uncertainty that continues to shape positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日刑務所に入らない 59%
60年以上 28%
20年未満 11.3%
40～60 1.6%
$792,587 Vol.
$792,587 Vol.
2027/12/30
刑務所に入らない
59%
20年未満
11%
20～40
1%
40～60
2%
60年以上
28%
刑務所に入らない 59%
60年以上 28%
20年未満 11.3%
40～60 1.6%
$792,587 Vol.
$792,587 Vol.
2027/12/30
刑務所に入らない
$498,693 Vol.
59%
20年未満
$113,411 Vol.
11%
20～40
$60,619 Vol.
1%
40～60
$27,942 Vol.
2%
60年以上
$91,921 Vol.
28%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Maduro faces US federal drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism charges after his January 2026 capture by US forces in Caracas.** He and his wife remain in pretrial detention at Brooklyn’s MDC pending a June 2027 trial, with defense motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity grounds scheduled for November 2026 argument. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time because acquittal, charge dismissal, or negotiated resolution remain plausible before or during proceedings that are still months away. Shorter or mid-range sentences carry low implied odds given the serious charges and potential mandatory minimums, while a 60+ year outcome reflects the risk of conviction on conspiracy counts carrying life exposure if the case proceeds to verdict without dismissal. Recent developments, including Maduro’s September motion citing sovereign immunity and his wife’s health-related release request, underscore ongoing legal uncertainty that continues to shape positioning.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
音量
$792,587終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Maduro faces US federal drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism charges after his January 2026 capture by US forces in Caracas.** He and his wife remain in pretrial detention at Brooklyn’s MDC pending a June 2027 trial, with defense motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity grounds scheduled for November 2026 argument. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time because acquittal, charge dismissal, or negotiated resolution remain plausible before or during proceedings that are still months away. Shorter or mid-range sentences carry low implied odds given the serious charges and potential mandatory minimums, while a 60+ year outcome reflects the risk of conviction on conspiracy counts carrying life exposure if the case proceeds to verdict without dismissal. Recent developments, including Maduro’s September motion citing sovereign immunity and his wife’s health-related release request, underscore ongoing legal uncertainty that continues to shape positioning.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$792,587終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...**Maduro faces US federal drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism charges after his January 2026 capture by US forces in Caracas.** He and his wife remain in pretrial detention at Brooklyn’s MDC pending a June 2027 trial, with defense motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity grounds scheduled for November 2026 argument. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time because acquittal, charge dismissal, or negotiated resolution remain plausible before or during proceedings that are still months away. Shorter or mid-range sentences carry low implied odds given the serious charges and potential mandatory minimums, while a 60+ year outcome reflects the risk of conviction on conspiracy counts carrying life exposure if the case proceeds to verdict without dismissal. Recent developments, including Maduro’s September motion citing sovereign immunity and his wife’s health-related release request, underscore ongoing legal uncertainty that continues to shape positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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