Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants, have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo scores to the 1493–1506 range as of mid-September 2026, with Meta’s Muse Spark 1.2 close behind at 1498–1499. Trader sentiment reflects the tight clustering of frontier models and the slowing pace of gains compared with prior years, as competitive pressure from Google Gemini, OpenAI GPT-5 iterations, and open-weight entries like Qwen and Kimi continues. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, market-implied odds hinge on whether incremental updates or major launches before year-end can add the remaining points needed for higher thresholds, amid typical risks of delayed releases or leaderboard volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$185,940 Vol.
2026/12/31
↑ 1520
97%
↑ 1530
33%
↑ 1540
23%
↑ 1550
17%
↑ 1600
5%
↑ 1650
5%
↑ 1700
3%
$185,940 Vol.
↑ 1520
$32,961 Vol.
97%
↑ 1530
$14,052 Vol.
33%
↑ 1540
$5,453 Vol.
23%
↑ 1550
$53,195 Vol.
17%
↑ 1600
$25,370 Vol.
5%
↑ 1650
$9,216 Vol.
5%
↑ 1700
$9,036 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants, have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo scores to the 1493–1506 range as of mid-September 2026, with Meta’s Muse Spark 1.2 close behind at 1498–1499. Trader sentiment reflects the tight clustering of frontier models and the slowing pace of gains compared with prior years, as competitive pressure from Google Gemini, OpenAI GPT-5 iterations, and open-weight entries like Qwen and Kimi continues. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, market-implied odds hinge on whether incremental updates or major launches before year-end can add the remaining points needed for higher thresholds, amid typical risks of delayed releases or leaderboard volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
音量
$185,940終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants, have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo scores to the 1493–1506 range as of mid-September 2026, with Meta’s Muse Spark 1.2 close behind at 1498–1499. Trader sentiment reflects the tight clustering of frontier models and the slowing pace of gains compared with prior years, as competitive pressure from Google Gemini, OpenAI GPT-5 iterations, and open-weight entries like Qwen and Kimi continues. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, market-implied odds hinge on whether incremental updates or major launches before year-end can add the remaining points needed for higher thresholds, amid typical risks of delayed releases or leaderboard volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$185,940終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants, have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo scores to the 1493–1506 range as of mid-September 2026, with Meta’s Muse Spark 1.2 close behind at 1498–1499. Trader sentiment reflects the tight clustering of frontier models and the slowing pace of gains compared with prior years, as competitive pressure from Google Gemini, OpenAI GPT-5 iterations, and open-weight entries like Qwen and Kimi continues. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, market-implied odds hinge on whether incremental updates or major launches before year-end can add the remaining points needed for higher thresholds, amid typical risks of delayed releases or leaderboard volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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