Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena text and coding boards, driven by their July releases and strong agentic performance. This has shaped trader views toward Anthropic holding an edge heading into year-end. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 3.1/3.7 series remain close behind on reasoning and multimodal tasks, while xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh on August 12 boosted its position with improved agentic loops at lower cost. Upcoming frontier drops expected from OpenAI in September, xAI later this month, Google in mid-September, and Meta in November could shift relative rankings quickly on evolving benchmarks like Humanity's Last Exam or SWE-bench. Rapid iteration across labs keeps the #1 position fluid through December.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$126,171 Vol.
OpenAI
34%
20%
アリババ
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
ムーンショット
8%
DeepSeek
8%
百度
7%
マイクロソフト
5%
Amazon
4%
Meituan
4%
ミストラル
3%
$126,171 Vol.
OpenAI
34%
20%
アリババ
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
ムーンショット
8%
DeepSeek
8%
百度
7%
マイクロソフト
5%
Amazon
4%
Meituan
4%
ミストラル
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena text and coding boards, driven by their July releases and strong agentic performance. This has shaped trader views toward Anthropic holding an edge heading into year-end. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 3.1/3.7 series remain close behind on reasoning and multimodal tasks, while xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh on August 12 boosted its position with improved agentic loops at lower cost. Upcoming frontier drops expected from OpenAI in September, xAI later this month, Google in mid-September, and Meta in November could shift relative rankings quickly on evolving benchmarks like Humanity's Last Exam or SWE-bench. Rapid iteration across labs keeps the #1 position fluid through December.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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