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icon for 12月31日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?

12月31日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?

icon for 12月31日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?

12月31日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?

12月 31

12月 31

$98,036 Vol.

2026/12/31
Polymarket

$98,036 Vol.

Polymarket

OpenAI

$21,085 Vol.

32%

Google

$16,961 Vol.

20%

Meta

$14,455 Vol.

16%

アリババ

$3,257 Vol.

13%

ムーンショット

$6,421 Vol.

13%

xAI

$8,411 Vol.

13%

Z.ai

$2,479 Vol.

9%

DeepSeek

$2,959 Vol.

9%

ByteDance

$2,815 Vol.

8%

Amazon

$2,727 Vol.

8%

マイクロソフト

$3,469 Vol.

8%

百度

$1,901 Vol.

7%

Meituan

$2,324 Vol.

6%

ミストラル

$8,772 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI’s GPT-5 series, now at 5.6 with recent efficiency and reasoning updates rolled out in early August 2026, maintains strong positioning on major leaderboards, while Anthropic’s Claude 5 family—including Fable 5 and Opus 5 released in June–July—has captured top spots in coding and long-horizon agent benchmarks. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.6 Flash variants, launched in July, emphasize token efficiency and multimodal performance but trail in several head-to-head evaluations. Traders are watching for any late-year frontier releases or benchmark shifts that could reorder the leaderboard before year-end, as frequent iteration cycles from the three leaders continue to compress capability gaps.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$98,036
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI’s GPT-5 series, now at 5.6 with recent efficiency and reasoning updates rolled out in early August 2026, maintains strong positioning on major leaderboards, while Anthropic’s Claude 5 family—including Fable 5 and Opus 5 released in June–July—has captured top spots in coding and long-horizon agent benchmarks. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.6 Flash variants, launched in July, emphasize token efficiency and multimodal performance but trail in several head-to-head evaluations. Traders are watching for any late-year frontier releases or benchmark shifts that could reorder the leaderboard before year-end, as frequent iteration cycles from the three leaders continue to compress capability gaps.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$98,036
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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よくある質問

「12月31日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?」はPolymarket上の14個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「OpenAI」で32%、次いで「Google」が20%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、32¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に32%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「12月31日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?」は$98Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Apr 30, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「12月31日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている14個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「12月31日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「OpenAI」で32%であり、市場がこの結果に32%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Google」で20%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「12月31日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。