**Intense competition among Chinese labs and established U.S. players drives the closely matched odds for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of October.** Recent releases such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max, and DeepSeek’s V4-Flash have delivered strong math and reasoning performance on arena.ai benchmarks at lower costs, narrowing gaps with Anthropic and OpenAI models that currently lead overall. Traders see high uncertainty for the third slot because multiple labs can rapidly shift rankings through model updates or new capability demonstrations before the resolution date, with Alibaba holding the highest implied probability among named contenders due to its scale and recent progress.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アリババ 42%
DeepSeek 29%
Google 23%
OpenAI 21%

アリババ
42%

DeepSeek
29%

25%

OpenAI
21%

SpaceXAI
20%

Moonshot
15%

Baidu
16%

テンセント
17%

Anthropic
15%

Meta
14%

Z.ai
9%

シャオミ
9%

MiniMax
6%

メイトゥアン
6%

バイトダンス
6%

ミストラル
6%

マイクロソフト
6%

Nvidia
6%

StepFun
5%

Amazon
1%
アリババ 42%
DeepSeek 29%
Google 23%
OpenAI 21%

アリババ
42%

DeepSeek
29%

25%

OpenAI
21%

SpaceXAI
20%

Moonshot
15%

Baidu
16%

テンセント
17%

Anthropic
15%

Meta
14%

Z.ai
9%

シャオミ
9%

MiniMax
6%

メイトゥアン
6%

バイトダンス
6%

ミストラル
6%

マイクロソフト
6%

Nvidia
6%

StepFun
5%

Amazon
1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Intense competition among Chinese labs and established U.S. players drives the closely matched odds for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of October.** Recent releases such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max, and DeepSeek’s V4-Flash have delivered strong math and reasoning performance on arena.ai benchmarks at lower costs, narrowing gaps with Anthropic and OpenAI models that currently lead overall. Traders see high uncertainty for the third slot because multiple labs can rapidly shift rankings through model updates or new capability demonstrations before the resolution date, with Alibaba holding the highest implied probability among named contenders due to its scale and recent progress.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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