**Google and Meta lead trader sentiment for the #2 AI lab by end-October 2026 on the arena.ai Text Arena (Style Control On), with implied probabilities of 32.5% and 28.0%, amid a tight contest behind Anthropic’s dominant Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models.** Recent July–August releases, including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, xAI’s Grok 4.6, Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.2, and Chinese entries like Z.ai’s GLM-5.3 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, have intensified competition in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks. Google benefits from scale, product integration, and consistent Flash updates, while Meta leverages open-weight adoption and developer ecosystems. Lower odds for OpenAI (13.0%), Alibaba (11.7%), and Anthropic (10.5%) reflect uncertainty over whether any single lab can sustain a clear second-place edge through October amid rapid iteration and shifting leaderboard performance. Traders weigh these near-term model gains and ecosystem momentum as the primary drivers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Google 33%
Meta 28%
OpenAI 13%
Anthropic 11%
$21,434 Vol.
$21,434 Vol.

33%

Meta
28%

OpenAI
13%

Anthropic
11%

Alibaba
15%

SpaceXAI
1%

ByteDance
1%

Z.ai
1%

Moonshot
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Baidu
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Thinky
<1%

テンセント
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Nvidia
<1%
Google 33%
Meta 28%
OpenAI 13%
Anthropic 11%
$21,434 Vol.
$21,434 Vol.

33%

Meta
28%

OpenAI
13%

Anthropic
11%

Alibaba
15%

SpaceXAI
1%

ByteDance
1%

Z.ai
1%

Moonshot
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Baidu
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Thinky
<1%

テンセント
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Nvidia
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Google and Meta lead trader sentiment for the #2 AI lab by end-October 2026 on the arena.ai Text Arena (Style Control On), with implied probabilities of 32.5% and 28.0%, amid a tight contest behind Anthropic’s dominant Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models.** Recent July–August releases, including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, xAI’s Grok 4.6, Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.2, and Chinese entries like Z.ai’s GLM-5.3 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, have intensified competition in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks. Google benefits from scale, product integration, and consistent Flash updates, while Meta leverages open-weight adoption and developer ecosystems. Lower odds for OpenAI (13.0%), Alibaba (11.7%), and Anthropic (10.5%) reflect uncertainty over whether any single lab can sustain a clear second-place edge through October amid rapid iteration and shifting leaderboard performance. Traders weigh these near-term model gains and ecosystem momentum as the primary drivers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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