Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月31日〜9月6日 23%
9月14日～9月20日 23%
9月21日〜9月27日 23%
9月7日〜9月13日 22%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
8月31日より前
21%
8月31日〜9月6日
23%
9月7日〜9月13日
22%
9月14日～9月20日
23%
9月21日〜9月27日
23%
9月28日〜10月4日
21%
10月5日～10月11日
21%
10月12日～10月18日
21%
10月19日〜10月25日
21%
10月26日～11月1日
21%
11月1日までにリリースなし
22%
8月31日〜9月6日 23%
9月14日～9月20日 23%
9月21日〜9月27日 23%
9月7日〜9月13日 22%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
8月31日より前
$0 Vol.
21%
8月31日〜9月6日
$0 Vol.
23%
9月7日〜9月13日
$0 Vol.
22%
9月14日～9月20日
$0 Vol.
23%
9月21日〜9月27日
$0 Vol.
23%
9月28日〜10月4日
$0 Vol.
21%
10月5日～10月11日
$0 Vol.
21%
10月12日～10月18日
$0 Vol.
21%
10月19日〜10月25日
$0 Vol.
21%
10月26日～11月1日
$0 Vol.
21%
11月1日までにリリースなし
$39 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
音量
$39終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$39終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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