Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests clustered within 3–5 points, with Iowa, Texas, Michigan, and the Ohio special election standing out as the tightest based on available surveys. These races feature open seats, retirements, or vulnerable incumbents in states where the national generic ballot tilts modestly toward Democrats and candidate recruitment has produced credible nominees on both sides. Trader positioning on Iowa and Texas as frontrunners for the narrowest margin reflects their combination of structural competitiveness and limited polling volatility so far. Late-cycle developments such as turnout patterns in rural versus suburban areas, any shifts in presidential approval, or final ad spending could consolidate support behind one outcome by altering relative margins across the field.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Iowa 13.9%
Texas 14%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 9.3%
$45,306 Vol.
$45,306 Vol.
2026/11/03
Iowa
14%
Texas
14%
Michigan
11%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Nebraska
8%
Alaska
8%
Maine
8%
New Hampshire
4%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
3%
Montana
2%
North Carolina
2%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
1%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
<1%
Iowa 13.9%
Texas 14%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 9.3%
$45,306 Vol.
$45,306 Vol.
2026/11/03
Iowa
$3,298 Vol.
14%
Texas
$2,351 Vol.
14%
Michigan
$3,508 Vol.
11%
Ohio (Special)
$9,015 Vol.
9%
Nebraska
$3,609 Vol.
8%
Alaska
$8,357 Vol.
8%
Maine
$1,995 Vol.
8%
New Hampshire
$806 Vol.
4%
Florida (Special)
$410 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,076 Vol.
3%
Montana
$1,653 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$1,557 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,569 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$1,117 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests clustered within 3–5 points, with Iowa, Texas, Michigan, and the Ohio special election standing out as the tightest based on available surveys. These races feature open seats, retirements, or vulnerable incumbents in states where the national generic ballot tilts modestly toward Democrats and candidate recruitment has produced credible nominees on both sides. Trader positioning on Iowa and Texas as frontrunners for the narrowest margin reflects their combination of structural competitiveness and limited polling volatility so far. Late-cycle developments such as turnout patterns in rural versus suburban areas, any shifts in presidential approval, or final ad spending could consolidate support behind one outcome by altering relative margins across the field.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
音量
$45,306終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests clustered within 3–5 points, with Iowa, Texas, Michigan, and the Ohio special election standing out as the tightest based on available surveys. These races feature open seats, retirements, or vulnerable incumbents in states where the national generic ballot tilts modestly toward Democrats and candidate recruitment has produced credible nominees on both sides. Trader positioning on Iowa and Texas as frontrunners for the narrowest margin reflects their combination of structural competitiveness and limited polling volatility so far. Late-cycle developments such as turnout patterns in rural versus suburban areas, any shifts in presidential approval, or final ad spending could consolidate support behind one outcome by altering relative margins across the field.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$45,306終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests clustered within 3–5 points, with Iowa, Texas, Michigan, and the Ohio special election standing out as the tightest based on available surveys. These races feature open seats, retirements, or vulnerable incumbents in states where the national generic ballot tilts modestly toward Democrats and candidate recruitment has produced credible nominees on both sides. Trader positioning on Iowa and Texas as frontrunners for the narrowest margin reflects their combination of structural competitiveness and limited polling volatility so far. Late-cycle developments such as turnout patterns in rural versus suburban areas, any shifts in presidential approval, or final ad spending could consolidate support behind one outcome by altering relative margins across the field.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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