Resilient U.S. labor market data and elevated inflation readings underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures. These releases have reinforced trader consensus for the Fed to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end, consistent with recent central bank communications favoring patience. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 policy decision remain key near-term catalysts that could influence positioning, though a sharper-than-expected inflation cooldown or labor market softening would be required to meaningfully shift odds toward a 25 basis point adjustment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 93%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 6.3%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$8,665,558 Vol.
$8,665,558 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
1%
変更なし
93%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 93%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 6.3%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$8,665,558 Vol.
$8,665,558 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$1,141,035 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$901,054 Vol.
1%
変更なし
$1,249,850 Vol.
93%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$3,925,829 Vol.
6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$1,447,917 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Resilient U.S. labor market data and elevated inflation readings underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures. These releases have reinforced trader consensus for the Fed to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end, consistent with recent central bank communications favoring patience. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 policy decision remain key near-term catalysts that could influence positioning, though a sharper-than-expected inflation cooldown or labor market softening would be required to meaningfully shift odds toward a 25 basis point adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$8,665,558終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Resilient U.S. labor market data and elevated inflation readings underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures. These releases have reinforced trader consensus for the Fed to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end, consistent with recent central bank communications favoring patience. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 policy decision remain key near-term catalysts that could influence positioning, though a sharper-than-expected inflation cooldown or labor market softening would be required to meaningfully shift odds toward a 25 basis point adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$8,665,558終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resilient U.S. labor market data and elevated inflation readings underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures. These releases have reinforced trader consensus for the Fed to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end, consistent with recent central bank communications favoring patience. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 policy decision remain key near-term catalysts that could influence positioning, though a sharper-than-expected inflation cooldown or labor market softening would be required to meaningfully shift odds toward a 25 basis point adjustment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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