Polymarket traders price an 79.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data amid sticky inflation. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% and released April 10—driven by energy price spikes tied to the Iran war, tempering cut expectations. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling labor market strength. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March, projecting one cut sometime in 2026 while emphasizing elevated inflation risks. Upcoming April CPI (May 12) and jobs data will be pivotal catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 80%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 14%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 4.1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ 2.3%
$3,712,118 Vol.
$3,712,118 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
2%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
14%
変更なし
80%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
1%
変更なし 80%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 14%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 4.1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ 2.3%
$3,712,118 Vol.
$3,712,118 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$171,427 Vol.
2%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$123,043 Vol.
14%
変更なし
$187,530 Vol.
80%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$3,029,566 Vol.
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$200,552 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 79.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data amid sticky inflation. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% and released April 10—driven by energy price spikes tied to the Iran war, tempering cut expectations. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling labor market strength. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March, projecting one cut sometime in 2026 while emphasizing elevated inflation risks. Upcoming April CPI (May 12) and jobs data will be pivotal catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$3,712,118終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 79.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data amid sticky inflation. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% and released April 10—driven by energy price spikes tied to the Iran war, tempering cut expectations. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling labor market strength. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March, projecting one cut sometime in 2026 while emphasizing elevated inflation risks. Upcoming April CPI (May 12) and jobs data will be pivotal catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$3,712,118終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price an 79.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data amid sticky inflation. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% and released April 10—driven by energy price spikes tied to the Iran war, tempering cut expectations. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling labor market strength. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March, projecting one cut sometime in 2026 while emphasizing elevated inflation risks. Upcoming April CPI (May 12) and jobs data will be pivotal catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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