The Fed has maintained its federal funds rate target range at 3.50–3.75 percent across the March and April 2026 FOMC meetings amid sticky inflation readings near 3 percent core PCE and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply risks. Minutes and statements emphasize a data-dependent stance, with participants noting balanced risks to the dual mandate and limited scope for easing while inflation remains above target and the labor market shows only modest softening at unemployment near 4.3–4.4 percent. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing negligible probability of a cut by mid-year given the central bank’s focus on credibility and recent communications projecting at most one modest reduction later in 2026. The June 16–17 meeting represents the final near-term catalyst, though a material downside surprise in inflation or employment data would be required to shift the hold bias.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 99.4%
その他 <1%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ <1%
$1,774,460 Vol.
$1,774,460 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
99%
その他
<1%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
<1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 99.4%
その他 <1%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ <1%
$1,774,460 Vol.
$1,774,460 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
$317,938 Vol.
99%
その他
$362,419 Vol.
<1%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$348,761 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe Fed has maintained its federal funds rate target range at 3.50–3.75 percent across the March and April 2026 FOMC meetings amid sticky inflation readings near 3 percent core PCE and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply risks. Minutes and statements emphasize a data-dependent stance, with participants noting balanced risks to the dual mandate and limited scope for easing while inflation remains above target and the labor market shows only modest softening at unemployment near 4.3–4.4 percent. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing negligible probability of a cut by mid-year given the central bank’s focus on credibility and recent communications projecting at most one modest reduction later in 2026. The June 16–17 meeting represents the final near-term catalyst, though a material downside surprise in inflation or employment data would be required to shift the hold bias.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$1,774,460終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe Fed has maintained its federal funds rate target range at 3.50–3.75 percent across the March and April 2026 FOMC meetings amid sticky inflation readings near 3 percent core PCE and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply risks. Minutes and statements emphasize a data-dependent stance, with participants noting balanced risks to the dual mandate and limited scope for easing while inflation remains above target and the labor market shows only modest softening at unemployment near 4.3–4.4 percent. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing negligible probability of a cut by mid-year given the central bank’s focus on credibility and recent communications projecting at most one modest reduction later in 2026. The June 16–17 meeting represents the final near-term catalyst, though a material downside surprise in inflation or employment data would be required to shift the hold bias.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$1,774,460終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Fed has maintained its federal funds rate target range at 3.50–3.75 percent across the March and April 2026 FOMC meetings amid sticky inflation readings near 3 percent core PCE and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply risks. Minutes and statements emphasize a data-dependent stance, with participants noting balanced risks to the dual mandate and limited scope for easing while inflation remains above target and the labor market shows only modest softening at unemployment near 4.3–4.4 percent. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing negligible probability of a cut by mid-year given the central bank’s focus on credibility and recent communications projecting at most one modest reduction later in 2026. The June 16–17 meeting represents the final near-term catalyst, though a material downside surprise in inflation or employment data would be required to shift the hold bias.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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