Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to pause amid persistent inflation pressures. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—fueled by energy shocks from Middle East tensions that spiked oil to $115 per barrel before a fragile ceasefire eased it toward $95. Fed minutes released April 8 revealed some officials' openness to hikes, while major banks like Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan now forecast no 2026 cuts. This strong positioning could face challenges from sustained oil declines, softer April CPI data due May 12, or cooling labor indicators ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially reviving cut expectations under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 91%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 6.2%
その他 2.0%
停止–利下げ–停止 <1%
$968,285 Vol.
$968,285 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
91%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
6%
その他
2%
停止–利下げ–停止
1%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 91%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 6.2%
その他 2.0%
停止–利下げ–停止 <1%
$968,285 Vol.
$968,285 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
$36,893 Vol.
91%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$18,558 Vol.
6%
その他
$219,591 Vol.
2%
停止–利下げ–停止
$176,985 Vol.
1%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
$516,258 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to pause amid persistent inflation pressures. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—fueled by energy shocks from Middle East tensions that spiked oil to $115 per barrel before a fragile ceasefire eased it toward $95. Fed minutes released April 8 revealed some officials' openness to hikes, while major banks like Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan now forecast no 2026 cuts. This strong positioning could face challenges from sustained oil declines, softer April CPI data due May 12, or cooling labor indicators ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially reviving cut expectations under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$968,285終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to pause amid persistent inflation pressures. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—fueled by energy shocks from Middle East tensions that spiked oil to $115 per barrel before a fragile ceasefire eased it toward $95. Fed minutes released April 8 revealed some officials' openness to hikes, while major banks like Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan now forecast no 2026 cuts. This strong positioning could face challenges from sustained oil declines, softer April CPI data due May 12, or cooling labor indicators ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially reviving cut expectations under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$968,285終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to pause amid persistent inflation pressures. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—fueled by energy shocks from Middle East tensions that spiked oil to $115 per barrel before a fragile ceasefire eased it toward $95. Fed minutes released April 8 revealed some officials' openness to hikes, while major banks like Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan now forecast no 2026 cuts. This strong positioning could face challenges from sustained oil declines, softer April CPI data due May 12, or cooling labor indicators ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially reviving cut expectations under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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