Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady Fed funds rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting resilient labor market data and persistent inflation pressures. March's FOMC decision on March 18 held rates unchanged amid hotter-than-expected March CPI energy gains of 12.5% year-over-year and February PCE inflation steady at 2.8%, compounded by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict elevating price forecasts. Recent weekly jobless claims at 219,000 for early April underscore economic strength, aligning with Fed projections for just one 2026 rate cut later in the year. Traders eye today's April 28-29 meeting and upcoming May PCE data for potential shifts, though downside risks to cuts remain minimal absent softer indicators.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 90%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 7.6%
その他 2.2%
停止–利下げ–停止 <1%
$982,444 Vol.
$982,444 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
90%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
8%
その他
2%
停止–利下げ–停止
<1%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
<1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 90%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 7.6%
その他 2.2%
停止–利下げ–停止 <1%
$982,444 Vol.
$982,444 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
$37,899 Vol.
90%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$19,614 Vol.
8%
その他
$220,113 Vol.
2%
停止–利下げ–停止
$178,072 Vol.
<1%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
$526,745 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady Fed funds rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting resilient labor market data and persistent inflation pressures. March's FOMC decision on March 18 held rates unchanged amid hotter-than-expected March CPI energy gains of 12.5% year-over-year and February PCE inflation steady at 2.8%, compounded by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict elevating price forecasts. Recent weekly jobless claims at 219,000 for early April underscore economic strength, aligning with Fed projections for just one 2026 rate cut later in the year. Traders eye today's April 28-29 meeting and upcoming May PCE data for potential shifts, though downside risks to cuts remain minimal absent softer indicators.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$982,444終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady Fed funds rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting resilient labor market data and persistent inflation pressures. March's FOMC decision on March 18 held rates unchanged amid hotter-than-expected March CPI energy gains of 12.5% year-over-year and February PCE inflation steady at 2.8%, compounded by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict elevating price forecasts. Recent weekly jobless claims at 219,000 for early April underscore economic strength, aligning with Fed projections for just one 2026 rate cut later in the year. Traders eye today's April 28-29 meeting and upcoming May PCE data for potential shifts, though downside risks to cuts remain minimal absent softer indicators.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$982,444終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady Fed funds rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting resilient labor market data and persistent inflation pressures. March's FOMC decision on March 18 held rates unchanged amid hotter-than-expected March CPI energy gains of 12.5% year-over-year and February PCE inflation steady at 2.8%, compounded by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict elevating price forecasts. Recent weekly jobless claims at 219,000 for early April underscore economic strength, aligning with Fed projections for just one 2026 rate cut later in the year. Traders eye today's April 28-29 meeting and upcoming May PCE data for potential shifts, though downside risks to cuts remain minimal absent softer indicators.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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