Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini app for select users and on testing platforms like LM Arena as of May 5 have sharply boosted trader sentiment for a near-term release, positioning May 19 at 37.5% implied probability due to its alignment with Google I/O on May 19-20, where DeepMind historically unveils major large language model upgrades. The 23% on "No release by May 31" reflects hedging against unannounced delays common in Google's iterative rollout strategy amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus updates. Earlier dates like May 14 (19.5%) capture optimism from accelerated testing, though official confirmation remains absent; watch I/O keynotes for resolution catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日May 19 38%
No release by May 31 28%
May 13 12%
May 14 6%
新規
$34,184 Vol.
新規
$34,184 Vol.
2026/05/31
On or prior to May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
1%
May 10
1%
May 11
3%
May 12
15%
May 13
12%
May 14
9%
May 15
2%
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
4%
May 19
38%
May 20
6%
May 21
4%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
3%
May 26
2%
May 27
3%
May 28
<1%
May 29
1%
May 30
1%
May 31
1%
No release by May 31
25%
May 19 38%
No release by May 31 28%
May 13 12%
May 14 6%
新規
$34,184 Vol.
新規
$34,184 Vol.
2026/05/31
On or prior to May 6
$1,423 Vol.
<1%
May 7
$784 Vol.
<1%
May 8
$499 Vol.
<1%
May 9
$2,773 Vol.
1%
May 10
$2,853 Vol.
1%
May 11
$554 Vol.
3%
May 12
$567 Vol.
15%
May 13
$604 Vol.
12%
May 14
$526 Vol.
9%
May 15
$524 Vol.
2%
May 16
$2,606 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$2,618 Vol.
1%
May 18
$551 Vol.
4%
May 19
$879 Vol.
38%
May 20
$657 Vol.
6%
May 21
$591 Vol.
4%
May 22
$571 Vol.
2%
May 23
$2,581 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$2,626 Vol.
1%
May 25
$596 Vol.
3%
May 26
$601 Vol.
2%
May 27
$586 Vol.
3%
May 28
$586 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$611 Vol.
1%
May 30
$2,990 Vol.
1%
May 31
$2,757 Vol.
1%
No release by May 31
$671 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini app for select users and on testing platforms like LM Arena as of May 5 have sharply boosted trader sentiment for a near-term release, positioning May 19 at 37.5% implied probability due to its alignment with Google I/O on May 19-20, where DeepMind historically unveils major large language model upgrades. The 23% on "No release by May 31" reflects hedging against unannounced delays common in Google's iterative rollout strategy amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus updates. Earlier dates like May 14 (19.5%) capture optimism from accelerated testing, though official confirmation remains absent; watch I/O keynotes for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
音量
$34,184終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini app for select users and on testing platforms like LM Arena as of May 5 have sharply boosted trader sentiment for a near-term release, positioning May 19 at 37.5% implied probability due to its alignment with Google I/O on May 19-20, where DeepMind historically unveils major large language model upgrades. The 23% on "No release by May 31" reflects hedging against unannounced delays common in Google's iterative rollout strategy amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus updates. Earlier dates like May 14 (19.5%) capture optimism from accelerated testing, though official confirmation remains absent; watch I/O keynotes for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$34,184終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini app for select users and on testing platforms like LM Arena as of May 5 have sharply boosted trader sentiment for a near-term release, positioning May 19 at 37.5% implied probability due to its alignment with Google I/O on May 19-20, where DeepMind historically unveils major large language model upgrades. The 23% on "No release by May 31" reflects hedging against unannounced delays common in Google's iterative rollout strategy amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus updates. Earlier dates like May 14 (19.5%) capture optimism from accelerated testing, though official confirmation remains absent; watch I/O keynotes for resolution catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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