xAI has not released Grok 5 as of late August 2026, with the model still in active training on the Colossus 2 supercluster following repeated timeline slips from late 2025 targets through Q1 and Q2 2026 windows. Trader sentiment reflects skepticism around near-term launches after xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and began rolling out iterative 4.6 and 4.7 updates emphasizing speed, cost efficiency, and coding performance. Musk has stated a goal of a pre-year-end 2026 release for the much larger 6T–10T parameter model, which incorporates expanded compute and data sources including SpaceX engineering records. Key near-term catalysts include completion of the 4.x cadence, any Colossus scaling updates, and competitive benchmark releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could influence xAI's prioritization.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/08/31
8月31日
<1%
10月31日
18%
11月30日
21%
12月31日
70%
$8,565 Vol.
8月31日
$3,541 Vol.
<1%
10月31日
$1,769 Vol.
18%
11月30日
$21 Vol.
21%
12月31日
$1,711 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has not released Grok 5 as of late August 2026, with the model still in active training on the Colossus 2 supercluster following repeated timeline slips from late 2025 targets through Q1 and Q2 2026 windows. Trader sentiment reflects skepticism around near-term launches after xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and began rolling out iterative 4.6 and 4.7 updates emphasizing speed, cost efficiency, and coding performance. Musk has stated a goal of a pre-year-end 2026 release for the much larger 6T–10T parameter model, which incorporates expanded compute and data sources including SpaceX engineering records. Key near-term catalysts include completion of the 4.x cadence, any Colossus scaling updates, and competitive benchmark releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could influence xAI's prioritization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
音量
$8,565終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has not released Grok 5 as of late August 2026, with the model still in active training on the Colossus 2 supercluster following repeated timeline slips from late 2025 targets through Q1 and Q2 2026 windows. Trader sentiment reflects skepticism around near-term launches after xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and began rolling out iterative 4.6 and 4.7 updates emphasizing speed, cost efficiency, and coding performance. Musk has stated a goal of a pre-year-end 2026 release for the much larger 6T–10T parameter model, which incorporates expanded compute and data sources including SpaceX engineering records. Key near-term catalysts include completion of the 4.x cadence, any Colossus scaling updates, and competitive benchmark releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could influence xAI's prioritization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$8,565終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...xAI has not released Grok 5 as of late August 2026, with the model still in active training on the Colossus 2 supercluster following repeated timeline slips from late 2025 targets through Q1 and Q2 2026 windows. Trader sentiment reflects skepticism around near-term launches after xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and began rolling out iterative 4.6 and 4.7 updates emphasizing speed, cost efficiency, and coding performance. Musk has stated a goal of a pre-year-end 2026 release for the much larger 6T–10T parameter model, which incorporates expanded compute and data sources including SpaceX engineering records. Key near-term catalysts include completion of the 4.x cadence, any Colossus scaling updates, and competitive benchmark releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could influence xAI's prioritization.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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