Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close clustering of major weather models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles around 28–30°C for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 18, with timeanddate.com forecasting a 29°C peak under cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk. This tight spread stems from a recent warming trend following April 16's overcast high of 24°C, as a building high-pressure ridge enhances solar insolation while low wind speeds (4–8 mph) limit mixing. Differentiating factors include subtle cloud cover evolution—partly sunny scenarios could push toward 30°C, while persistent overcast caps at 28°C—and diurnal timing at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport station. New 12Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates on April 17 may refine these implied probabilities amid springtime variability in the Sichuan Basin.