Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 25–27°C for Hong Kong's March 28 high, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) latest forecast indicating a moderate 24–26°C range amid light easterly winds and scattered clouds, with potential for slight afternoon warming from urban heat island effects. This edges out 28°C+ (26%) due to suppressed instability—no strong southerly flows or high pressure ridges seen in ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models, which diverge by just 1–2°C. Historical March 28 averages hover at 23.5°C, but recent subtropical high positioning favors the upper 20s; upcoming HKO updates at 11 AM HKT could shift odds as diurnal max nears. Uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover impacting solar insolation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 28?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 28?
25°C 32%
27°C 32%
24°C 26%
28°C or higher 26%
18°C or below
6%
19°C
11%
20°C
8%
21°C
8%
22°C
11%
23°C
9%
24°C
14%
25°C
32%
26°C
19%
27°C
32%
28°C or higher
26%
25°C 32%
27°C 32%
24°C 26%
28°C or higher 26%
18°C or below
6%
19°C
11%
20°C
8%
21°C
8%
22°C
11%
23°C
9%
24°C
14%
25°C
32%
26°C
19%
27°C
32%
28°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 25–27°C for Hong Kong's March 28 high, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) latest forecast indicating a moderate 24–26°C range amid light easterly winds and scattered clouds, with potential for slight afternoon warming from urban heat island effects. This edges out 28°C+ (26%) due to suppressed instability—no strong southerly flows or high pressure ridges seen in ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models, which diverge by just 1–2°C. Historical March 28 averages hover at 23.5°C, but recent subtropical high positioning favors the upper 20s; upcoming HKO updates at 11 AM HKT could shift odds as diurnal max nears. Uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover impacting solar insolation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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