Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on mid-70s highs for Los Angeles on March 27, with 74-75°F leading at 26% implied probability, closely trailed by 76-77°F (24%) and 72-73°F (23%), reflecting tight forecast model clusters from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles predicting 73-77°F peaks at LAX or downtown stations. Driving this sentiment is a developing upper-level ridge over the Southwest fostering adiabatic warming aloft, tempered by moderate onshore flow introducing coastal stratus clouds that cap extremes below 80°F. Differentiation hinges on marine layer persistence—thicker clouds favor 72-73°F via enhanced evaporative cooling, while sunnier breakdowns from light Santa Ana winds nudge toward 76-77°F—as seen in recent 12z model runs showing slight spread around a 75°F mean. Historical March baselines average 69°F, underscoring above-normal odds from this synoptic setup.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 27?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 27?
74-75°F 26%
76-77°F 25%
72-73°F 17%
78-79°F 12%
71°F or below
10%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
26%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
4%
90°F or higher
7%
74-75°F 26%
76-77°F 25%
72-73°F 17%
78-79°F 12%
71°F or below
10%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
26%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
4%
90°F or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on mid-70s highs for Los Angeles on March 27, with 74-75°F leading at 26% implied probability, closely trailed by 76-77°F (24%) and 72-73°F (23%), reflecting tight forecast model clusters from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles predicting 73-77°F peaks at LAX or downtown stations. Driving this sentiment is a developing upper-level ridge over the Southwest fostering adiabatic warming aloft, tempered by moderate onshore flow introducing coastal stratus clouds that cap extremes below 80°F. Differentiation hinges on marine layer persistence—thicker clouds favor 72-73°F via enhanced evaporative cooling, while sunnier breakdowns from light Santa Ana winds nudge toward 76-77°F—as seen in recent 12z model runs showing slight spread around a 75°F mean. Historical March baselines average 69°F, underscoring above-normal odds from this synoptic setup.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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