**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 24 centers on 78–79°F (48.5% implied probability) and 76–77°F (37.5%), with modest weight on 80–81°F (9.5%).** These probabilities reflect expectations for a moderate coastal maximum at the primary observing site, most likely Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). Key scientific drivers include the persistent marine layer—a cool, moist air mass from the Pacific that promotes low clouds and fog, limiting solar heating and capping daytime highs near the coast. Onshore southwest winds of 5–15 mph further moderate temperatures by advecting cooler marine air inland. NWS point forecasts for LAX indicate a high near 81°F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions after morning low clouds, while downtown or inland spots are projected warmer (around 87°F). Historical September averages at LAX hover in the mid-70s, providing context for why traders favor the upper 70s over higher readings. Recent model consensus and updated NWS guidance emphasize limited warming potential today, with no strong offshore flow or clear-sky setup to push readings into the low 80s. As the day progresses, any faster burn-off of stratus could support the small probability mass on 80–81°F, while thicker marine influence would reinforce the 76–79°F range. Market-implied odds aggregate trader assessments of these atmospheric variables ahead of the official daily maximum observation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月24日のロサンゼルスの最高気温は?
78〜79°F 49%
76~77°F 35%
80~81°F 9%
74~75°F 3%
$31,737 Vol.
$31,737 Vol.
71°F以下
<1%
72~73°F
2%
74~75°F
3%
76~77°F
35%
78〜79°F
49%
80~81°F
9%
82〜83°F
3%
84~85°F
1%
86~87°F
<1%
88~89°F
<1%
90°F以上
<1%
78〜79°F 49%
76~77°F 35%
80~81°F 9%
74~75°F 3%
$31,737 Vol.
$31,737 Vol.
71°F以下
<1%
72~73°F
2%
74~75°F
3%
76~77°F
35%
78〜79°F
49%
80~81°F
9%
82〜83°F
3%
84~85°F
1%
86~87°F
<1%
88~89°F
<1%
90°F以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Sep 22, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 24 centers on 78–79°F (48.5% implied probability) and 76–77°F (37.5%), with modest weight on 80–81°F (9.5%).** These probabilities reflect expectations for a moderate coastal maximum at the primary observing site, most likely Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). Key scientific drivers include the persistent marine layer—a cool, moist air mass from the Pacific that promotes low clouds and fog, limiting solar heating and capping daytime highs near the coast. Onshore southwest winds of 5–15 mph further moderate temperatures by advecting cooler marine air inland. NWS point forecasts for LAX indicate a high near 81°F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions after morning low clouds, while downtown or inland spots are projected warmer (around 87°F). Historical September averages at LAX hover in the mid-70s, providing context for why traders favor the upper 70s over higher readings. Recent model consensus and updated NWS guidance emphasize limited warming potential today, with no strong offshore flow or clear-sky setup to push readings into the low 80s. As the day progresses, any faster burn-off of stratus could support the small probability mass on 80–81°F, while thicker marine influence would reinforce the 76–79°F range. Market-implied odds aggregate trader assessments of these atmospheric variables ahead of the official daily maximum observation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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