Current forecast models from global and regional meteorological agencies indicate Shanghai's September 24 high temperature will likely peak near 29°C, aligning with the market's leading 38% implied probability. Late-September climatology for the Yangtze River Delta typically features daytime maxima of 26–30°C under weakening East Asian monsoon influence, with recent upper-level ridging and reduced cloud cover supporting modest warming. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, though a passing frontal boundary or increased humidity could cap readings at 27–28°C, reflected in the clustered 19.5–20% probabilities for adjacent outcomes. No major tropical systems or anomalous heat advection are evident in the latest runs, keeping extremes below 10% probability. Updated model outputs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.