Persistent cloud cover and scattered light rain across the Sichuan Basin are capping solar insolation and suppressing daytime heating for September 24, keeping forecast highs clustered near the 23–26 °C range in the latest model guidance. High humidity and light northeasterly flow further limit temperature recovery, consistent with climatological late-September patterns of frequent autumn precipitation that reduce diurnal ranges. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across mid-20 °C outcomes reflects this narrow uncertainty band, while low odds on extremes align with the absence of clear-sky or strong advection signals in current forecasts. Updated model runs and official briefings from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 48 hours will refine the expected maximum.