Recent forecasts for Chengdu indicate a high near 26–28°C on September 22 amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers, consistent with expanding Huaxi regional rainfall that limits daytime heating. Light southerly winds and high humidity further moderate peaks, while model consensus shows modest spread tied to the exact timing and coverage of precipitation. Historical September baselines in the Sichuan basin hover around 25–27°C, but ongoing moisture influx from the south and east creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24–27°C. Updated CMA and global model runs over the next 48 hours will clarify whether stronger afternoon clearing allows a brief spike toward 28°C or sustained overcast keeps readings capped lower.