Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 28°C (33.5% implied probability) and 29°C (32.0%), driven by Spain's AEMET official guidance forecasting a 28°C maximum at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source—amid a dominant high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models differentiate the outcomes: stronger subsidence and full insolation could push peaks to 29°C via enhanced diel heating, while isolated afternoon cumulus clouds or slight northern shear might limit to 27-28°C. Recent post-storm warming after early April's Storm Kristin has elevated baseline expectations above Madrid's typical April average of 19°C. Watch AEMET's daily updates and ECMWF 12z runs for refinement ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on April 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 18?
28°C 36%
29°C 27%
27°C 21%
30°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/18
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
10%
27°C
21%
28°C
36%
29°C
27%
30°C
13%
31°C
4%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 36%
29°C 27%
27°C 21%
30°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/18
22°C or below
$190 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$139 Vol.
1%
24°C
$418 Vol.
1%
25°C
$95 Vol.
2%
26°C
$14 Vol.
10%
27°C
$47 Vol.
21%
28°C
$75 Vol.
36%
29°C
$17 Vol.
27%
30°C
$229 Vol.
13%
31°C
$85 Vol.
4%
32°C or higher
$465 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 28°C (33.5% implied probability) and 29°C (32.0%), driven by Spain's AEMET official guidance forecasting a 28°C maximum at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source—amid a dominant high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models differentiate the outcomes: stronger subsidence and full insolation could push peaks to 29°C via enhanced diel heating, while isolated afternoon cumulus clouds or slight northern shear might limit to 27-28°C. Recent post-storm warming after early April's Storm Kristin has elevated baseline expectations above Madrid's typical April average of 19°C. Watch AEMET's daily updates and ECMWF 12z runs for refinement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
音量
$1,616終了日
2026/04/18マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 28°C (33.5% implied probability) and 29°C (32.0%), driven by Spain's AEMET official guidance forecasting a 28°C maximum at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source—amid a dominant high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models differentiate the outcomes: stronger subsidence and full insolation could push peaks to 29°C via enhanced diel heating, while isolated afternoon cumulus clouds or slight northern shear might limit to 27-28°C. Recent post-storm warming after early April's Storm Kristin has elevated baseline expectations above Madrid's typical April average of 19°C. Watch AEMET's daily updates and ECMWF 12z runs for refinement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$1,616終了日
2026/04/18マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 28°C (33.5% implied probability) and 29°C (32.0%), driven by Spain's AEMET official guidance forecasting a 28°C maximum at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source—amid a dominant high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models differentiate the outcomes: stronger subsidence and full insolation could push peaks to 29°C via enhanced diel heating, while isolated afternoon cumulus clouds or slight northern shear might limit to 27-28°C. Recent post-storm warming after early April's Storm Kristin has elevated baseline expectations above Madrid's typical April average of 19°C. Watch AEMET's daily updates and ECMWF 12z runs for refinement ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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