Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Manila on May 2?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 2?
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$41,435 Vol.
$41,435 Vol.
2026/05/02
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$41,435 Vol.
$41,435 Vol.
2026/05/02
30°C or below
$4,720 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,783 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,867 Vol.
No
33°C
$5,474 Vol.
No
34°C
$4,839 Vol.
No
35°C
$4,936 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,727 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$3,790 Vol.
No
38°C
$2,577 Vol.
No
39°C
$1,909 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$3,813 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
音量
$41,435終了日
2026/05/02マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$41,435終了日
2026/05/02マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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