Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 82-83°F (32.5% implied probability) as Miami's highest temperature on March 26, edging out 80-81°F (31.5%), reflecting NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 81.5-82.5°F amid persistent southerly winds and Gulf sea surface temperatures 1-2°F above March norms. Historical data shows late-March highs averaging 80°F at Miami International Airport, but recent model runs indicate a warm bias from high pressure ridging, differentiating the top bins; cooler outliers risk a transient frontal boundary, though only 9% odds for 78-79°F. Key watch: 00Z model updates Thursday could shift odds if Euro strengthens the ridge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月26日のマイアミの最高気温は?
3月26日のマイアミの最高気温は?
80~81°F 35%
82〜83°F 33%
84〜85°F 19%
78~79°F 9%
$14,471 Vol.
$14,471 Vol.
71°F以下
<1%
72〜73°F
1%
華氏74〜75度
1%
76~77°F
3%
78~79°F
9%
80~81°F
35%
82〜83°F
33%
84〜85°F
19%
86~87°F
3%
88〜89°F
4%
90°F以上
1%
80~81°F 35%
82〜83°F 33%
84〜85°F 19%
78~79°F 9%
$14,471 Vol.
$14,471 Vol.
71°F以下
<1%
72〜73°F
1%
華氏74〜75度
1%
76~77°F
3%
78~79°F
9%
80~81°F
35%
82〜83°F
33%
84〜85°F
19%
86~87°F
3%
88〜89°F
4%
90°F以上
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 82-83°F (32.5% implied probability) as Miami's highest temperature on March 26, edging out 80-81°F (31.5%), reflecting NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 81.5-82.5°F amid persistent southerly winds and Gulf sea surface temperatures 1-2°F above March norms. Historical data shows late-March highs averaging 80°F at Miami International Airport, but recent model runs indicate a warm bias from high pressure ridging, differentiating the top bins; cooler outliers risk a transient frontal boundary, though only 9% odds for 78-79°F. Key watch: 00Z model updates Thursday could shift odds if Euro strengthens the ridge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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