Recent ensemble forecasts from global models show Moscow under southerly flow with mostly cloudy skies and light showers possible on September 25, supporting daytime maxima near the 14–16 °C climatological average. Key differentiators among the tightly bunched mid-range outcomes include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and modest warm advection versus radiational cooling under broken cloud; these factors create the narrow spread captured by the near-equal probabilities for 12–18 °C. The modest 23 % market weight on 19 °C or higher reflects residual uncertainty in longer-range guidance and the possibility of brief sunny breaks, while sub-11 °C outcomes remain discounted given the absence of strong cold-air advection. Updated runs from the Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF expected in the next 24–48 hours will narrow resolution criteria around official Moscow observations.