Tight clustering of trader odds around 8–10°C for Munich's March 28 high temperature stems from ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on this range amid a cool northerly airflow from a persistent Scandinavian high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in 850 hPa temperature profiles—around 0°C to 2°C—and timing of any weak frontal passages, with ECMWF ensembles skewing slightly cooler at 9°C (25% implied probability) versus GFS hints of diurnal warming to 10°C (18%). Historical March 28 averages hover near 9°C, but short-range model spread reflects jet stream waviness, introducing 11.5% odds for 5°C or below if cloud cover thickens; DWD's next update on March 27 will be pivotal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月28日のミュンヘンの最高気温は?
3月28日のミュンヘンの最高気温は?
8℃ 21%
9℃ 20%
10℃ 18%
7°C 14%
5°C以下
9%
6°C
9%
7°C
14%
8℃
24%
9℃
25%
10℃
18%
11℃
12%
12°C
9%
13°C
6%
14℃
9%
15℃以上
2%
8℃ 21%
9℃ 20%
10℃ 18%
7°C 14%
5°C以下
9%
6°C
9%
7°C
14%
8℃
24%
9℃
25%
10℃
18%
11℃
12%
12°C
9%
13°C
6%
14℃
9%
15℃以上
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight clustering of trader odds around 8–10°C for Munich's March 28 high temperature stems from ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on this range amid a cool northerly airflow from a persistent Scandinavian high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in 850 hPa temperature profiles—around 0°C to 2°C—and timing of any weak frontal passages, with ECMWF ensembles skewing slightly cooler at 9°C (25% implied probability) versus GFS hints of diurnal warming to 10°C (18%). Historical March 28 averages hover near 9°C, but short-range model spread reflects jet stream waviness, introducing 11.5% odds for 5°C or below if cloud cover thickens; DWD's next update on March 27 will be pivotal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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