Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward milder conditions, with a 29% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching 16°C or higher on March 27, driven by recent Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) ensemble forecasts showing short-range model means around 14-16°C amid a high-pressure ridge forecast to build over the Korean Peninsula. This outweighs cooler outcomes like 12°C (11%) due to southerly winds advecting warmer air masses, though high uncertainty—evident in the flat probability distribution—stems from model divergences in ECMWF and GFS runs over cloud cover, frontal passages, and urban heat effects. Historical March 27 highs average 12-13°C (1981-2010 baseline), but recent mild anomalies boost warmer odds; watch KMA's 48-hour update for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月27日のソウルの最高気温は?
3月27日のソウルの最高気温は?
16℃以上 30%
15°C 18%
14℃ 16%
13℃ 16%
$12,244 Vol.
$12,244 Vol.
6℃以下
<1%
7℃
<1%
8℃
2%
9°C
4%
10°C
4%
11℃
7%
12°C
11%
13℃
16%
14℃
16%
15°C
18%
16℃以上
30%
16℃以上 30%
15°C 18%
14℃ 16%
13℃ 16%
$12,244 Vol.
$12,244 Vol.
6℃以下
<1%
7℃
<1%
8℃
2%
9°C
4%
10°C
4%
11℃
7%
12°C
11%
13℃
16%
14℃
16%
15°C
18%
16℃以上
30%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward milder conditions, with a 29% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching 16°C or higher on March 27, driven by recent Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) ensemble forecasts showing short-range model means around 14-16°C amid a high-pressure ridge forecast to build over the Korean Peninsula. This outweighs cooler outcomes like 12°C (11%) due to southerly winds advecting warmer air masses, though high uncertainty—evident in the flat probability distribution—stems from model divergences in ECMWF and GFS runs over cloud cover, frontal passages, and urban heat effects. Historical March 27 highs average 12-13°C (1981-2010 baseline), but recent mild anomalies boost warmer odds; watch KMA's 48-hour update for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問