Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月9日の東京の最高気温は？
7月9日の東京の最高気温は？
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$101,456 Vol.
$101,456 Vol.
2026/07/09
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$101,456 Vol.
$101,456 Vol.
2026/07/09
23°C or below
$3,991 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,721 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,123 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,657 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,843 Vol.
No
28°C
$6,224 Vol.
No
29°C
$19,459 Vol.
No
30°C
$13,631 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$18,733 Vol.
No
32°C
$8,963 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$15,111 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
音量
$101,456終了日
2026/07/09マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$101,456終了日
2026/07/09マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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