Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts drive the 100% market-implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 8 at 26°C, with the latest update—issued today—projecting a daily maximum near 25°C under cloudy skies clearing later, aligning with observed peaks from hourly AMeDAS stations and consistent model ensembles showing limited intensification potential. Above-normal May conditions (daily normal 22.8°C) reflect lingering warm air masses, but partial cloud cover caps solar heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected full clearing or downslope winds boosting afternoon temps to 27°C+, though low-altitude moisture and steering patterns make this unlikely; final JMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 8?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 8?
26°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$119,320 Vol.
$119,320 Vol.
2026/05/08
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$119,320 Vol.
$119,320 Vol.
2026/05/08
17°C or below
$5,569 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,576 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,937 Vol.
No
20°C
$5,692 Vol.
No
21°C
$6,226 Vol.
No
22°C
$19,345 Vol.
No
23°C
$16,315 Vol.
No
24°C
$12,289 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,518 Vol.
No
26°C
$21,604 Vol.
Yes
27°C or higher
$19,249 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts drive the 100% market-implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 8 at 26°C, with the latest update—issued today—projecting a daily maximum near 25°C under cloudy skies clearing later, aligning with observed peaks from hourly AMeDAS stations and consistent model ensembles showing limited intensification potential. Above-normal May conditions (daily normal 22.8°C) reflect lingering warm air masses, but partial cloud cover caps solar heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected full clearing or downslope winds boosting afternoon temps to 27°C+, though low-altitude moisture and steering patterns make this unlikely; final JMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
音量
$119,320終了日
2026/05/08マーケット開始日
May 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts drive the 100% market-implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 8 at 26°C, with the latest update—issued today—projecting a daily maximum near 25°C under cloudy skies clearing later, aligning with observed peaks from hourly AMeDAS stations and consistent model ensembles showing limited intensification potential. Above-normal May conditions (daily normal 22.8°C) reflect lingering warm air masses, but partial cloud cover caps solar heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected full clearing or downslope winds boosting afternoon temps to 27°C+, though low-altitude moisture and steering patterns make this unlikely; final JMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$119,320終了日
2026/05/08マーケット開始日
May 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts drive the 100% market-implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 8 at 26°C, with the latest update—issued today—projecting a daily maximum near 25°C under cloudy skies clearing later, aligning with observed peaks from hourly AMeDAS stations and consistent model ensembles showing limited intensification potential. Above-normal May conditions (daily normal 22.8°C) reflect lingering warm air masses, but partial cloud cover caps solar heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected full clearing or downslope winds boosting afternoon temps to 27°C+, though low-altitude moisture and steering patterns make this unlikely; final JMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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