Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 3°C or higher in Toronto on March 27 at 68.5% implied probability, driven by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model runs projecting daytime highs of 4–7°C amid a ridge of high pressure ushering mild southerly flow. Current observations show overnight lows around 0°C with light winds, aligning with seasonal norms where late-March averages hover near 6°C, though variability from Lake Ontario moderation tempers extremes. Recent GFS updates have nudged odds upward from prior cooler biases, while slim chances of lingering frontal systems explain tail risks below 0°C; watch 12Z model refresh for potential shifts before resolution via official Pearson Airport data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Toronto on March 27?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 27?
3°C or higher 68%
2°C 15%
1°C 10.8%
0°C 5.5%
-7°C or below
<1%
-6°C
1%
-5°C
1%
-4°C
1%
-3°C
2%
-2°C
2%
-1°C
2%
0°C
6%
1°C
11%
2°C
15%
3°C or higher
68%
3°C or higher 68%
2°C 15%
1°C 10.8%
0°C 5.5%
-7°C or below
<1%
-6°C
1%
-5°C
1%
-4°C
1%
-3°C
2%
-2°C
2%
-1°C
2%
0°C
6%
1°C
11%
2°C
15%
3°C or higher
68%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 3°C or higher in Toronto on March 27 at 68.5% implied probability, driven by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model runs projecting daytime highs of 4–7°C amid a ridge of high pressure ushering mild southerly flow. Current observations show overnight lows around 0°C with light winds, aligning with seasonal norms where late-March averages hover near 6°C, though variability from Lake Ontario moderation tempers extremes. Recent GFS updates have nudged odds upward from prior cooler biases, while slim chances of lingering frontal systems explain tail risks below 0°C; watch 12Z model refresh for potential shifts before resolution via official Pearson Airport data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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