Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 around 17°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering subsidence, partly cloudy skies, and mild southerly winds—elevating the market-implied probability for 17°C to 49.5% as traders align with this model consensus. This setup marks a warmer-than-average outcome, exceeding mid-April climatological highs of 13-15°C (Saffir-Simpson not applicable), with recent 12-hourly model runs over the past day refining the 16-18°C cluster by incorporating observed April 17 mild conditions. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential cloud increases or wind shifts, potentially favoring 16°C (14%) or 18°C (27.5%); new ECMWF updates and IMGW bulletins due within 24 hours could shift trader sentiment further.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
17°C 49%
18°C 27%
16°C 15%
19°C 7%
新規
$11,923 Vol.
新規
$11,923 Vol.
2026/04/18
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
15%
17°C
49%
18°C
27%
19°C
7%
20°C or higher
2%
17°C 49%
18°C 27%
16°C 15%
19°C 7%
新規
$11,923 Vol.
新規
$11,923 Vol.
2026/04/18
10°C or below
$2,054 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,588 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,154 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,051 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,359 Vol.
1%
15°C
$569 Vol.
2%
16°C
$412 Vol.
15%
17°C
$411 Vol.
49%
18°C
$454 Vol.
27%
19°C
$1,303 Vol.
7%
20°C or higher
$1,576 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 around 17°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering subsidence, partly cloudy skies, and mild southerly winds—elevating the market-implied probability for 17°C to 49.5% as traders align with this model consensus. This setup marks a warmer-than-average outcome, exceeding mid-April climatological highs of 13-15°C (Saffir-Simpson not applicable), with recent 12-hourly model runs over the past day refining the 16-18°C cluster by incorporating observed April 17 mild conditions. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential cloud increases or wind shifts, potentially favoring 16°C (14%) or 18°C (27.5%); new ECMWF updates and IMGW bulletins due within 24 hours could shift trader sentiment further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$11,923終了日
2026/04/18マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 around 17°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering subsidence, partly cloudy skies, and mild southerly winds—elevating the market-implied probability for 17°C to 49.5% as traders align with this model consensus. This setup marks a warmer-than-average outcome, exceeding mid-April climatological highs of 13-15°C (Saffir-Simpson not applicable), with recent 12-hourly model runs over the past day refining the 16-18°C cluster by incorporating observed April 17 mild conditions. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential cloud increases or wind shifts, potentially favoring 16°C (14%) or 18°C (27.5%); new ECMWF updates and IMGW bulletins due within 24 hours could shift trader sentiment further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$11,923終了日
2026/04/18マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETLatest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 around 17°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering subsidence, partly cloudy skies, and mild southerly winds—elevating the market-implied probability for 17°C to 49.5% as traders align with this model consensus. This setup marks a warmer-than-average outcome, exceeding mid-April climatological highs of 13-15°C (Saffir-Simpson not applicable), with recent 12-hourly model runs over the past day refining the 16-18°C cluster by incorporating observed April 17 mild conditions. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential cloud increases or wind shifts, potentially favoring 16°C (14%) or 18°C (27.5%); new ECMWF updates and IMGW bulletins due within 24 hours could shift trader sentiment further.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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