MetService's latest forecast, updated April 2, projects a maximum temperature of 19°C in Wellington today under fine conditions turning partly cloudy with northerlies strengthening in exposed areas and a slight chance of showers, driving trader consensus to a 98.7% implied probability for this outcome on Polymarket. This aligns with numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS, which show limited daytime heating due to cloud cover and cool sea breezes typical for autumn in the region, where April highs average 17–19°C historically. NIWA guidance similarly supports mid-teens to low-20s, but MetService's precision for local stations carries weight. Realistic challenges include unexpected prolonged clear skies or lighter winds allowing brief spikes to 20°C+, though model ensembles indicate low likelihood; monitor hourly observations from Wellington Airport through evening for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?
19°C 99.0%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
22°C or higher <1%
$113,346 Vol.
$113,346 Vol.
2026/04/03
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.0%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
22°C or higher <1%
$113,346 Vol.
$113,346 Vol.
2026/04/03
19°C
$14,166 Vol.
99%
20°C
$13,232 Vol.
1%
21°C
$10,780 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$12,125 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast, updated April 2, projects a maximum temperature of 19°C in Wellington today under fine conditions turning partly cloudy with northerlies strengthening in exposed areas and a slight chance of showers, driving trader consensus to a 98.7% implied probability for this outcome on Polymarket. This aligns with numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS, which show limited daytime heating due to cloud cover and cool sea breezes typical for autumn in the region, where April highs average 17–19°C historically. NIWA guidance similarly supports mid-teens to low-20s, but MetService's precision for local stations carries weight. Realistic challenges include unexpected prolonged clear skies or lighter winds allowing brief spikes to 20°C+, though model ensembles indicate low likelihood; monitor hourly observations from Wellington Airport through evening for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
音量
$113,346終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast, updated April 2, projects a maximum temperature of 19°C in Wellington today under fine conditions turning partly cloudy with northerlies strengthening in exposed areas and a slight chance of showers, driving trader consensus to a 98.7% implied probability for this outcome on Polymarket. This aligns with numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS, which show limited daytime heating due to cloud cover and cool sea breezes typical for autumn in the region, where April highs average 17–19°C historically. NIWA guidance similarly supports mid-teens to low-20s, but MetService's precision for local stations carries weight. Realistic challenges include unexpected prolonged clear skies or lighter winds allowing brief spikes to 20°C+, though model ensembles indicate low likelihood; monitor hourly observations from Wellington Airport through evening for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$113,346終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ETMetService's latest forecast, updated April 2, projects a maximum temperature of 19°C in Wellington today under fine conditions turning partly cloudy with northerlies strengthening in exposed areas and a slight chance of showers, driving trader consensus to a 98.7% implied probability for this outcome on Polymarket. This aligns with numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS, which show limited daytime heating due to cloud cover and cool sea breezes typical for autumn in the region, where April highs average 17–19°C historically. NIWA guidance similarly supports mid-teens to low-20s, but MetService's precision for local stations carries weight. Realistic challenges include unexpected prolonged clear skies or lighter winds allowing brief spikes to 20°C+, though model ensembles indicate low likelihood; monitor hourly observations from Wellington Airport through evening for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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