This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed April 8 under Pakistani mediation as a two-week pause in the 2026 conflict, has been extended by President Trump pending an Iranian proposal on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation. Sporadic violations, including reported exchanges of fire near the strait on May 7 and continued Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, have tested the truce, yet both sides have publicly affirmed its continuation while accusing the other of breaches. Iran has used the period to assert control over Hormuz transit through bilateral fees and agreements, while talks remain stalled with no confirmed follow-on meetings. Upcoming diplomatic signals from Tehran or US statements on the blockade could shift the trajectory before scheduled resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed April 8 under Pakistani mediation as a two-week pause in the 2026 conflict, has been extended by President Trump pending an Iranian proposal on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation. Sporadic violations, including reported exchanges of fire near the strait on May 7 and continued Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, have tested the truce, yet both sides have publicly affirmed its continuation while accusing the other of breaches. Iran has used the period to assert control over Hormuz transit through bilateral fees and agreements, while talks remain stalled with no confirmed follow-on meetings. Upcoming diplomatic signals from Tehran or US statements on the blockade could shift the trajectory before scheduled resolution windows.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 24 surges to 90%20%
The US military struck two Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after exchanges of fire, raising doubts about the ceasefire. However, no official confirmation of US kinetic military action on Iranian soil was reported, so the market remained confident the ceasefire would hold through May 24.
May 21 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 22 rises to 94%4%
President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, injecting some uncertainty into the negotiations but not indicating a breakdown of the ceasefire, which kept market confidence high for May 22 and beyond.
May 21 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 99%5%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, escalating tensions but not constituting a kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not officially ending the ceasefire. This event caused some market volatility but confidence remained high.
May 21 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 22 jumps to 95%13%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue efforts to reignite ceasefire negotiations with the US, while President Trump suggested talks could occur by phone. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 20 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue ceasefire negotiations with the US, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement that supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange more US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move increased market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 21.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid renewed ceasefire talks
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, signaling ongoing negotiations and raising market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 21 and May 22.
May 20 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 90%8%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, raising tensions but not causing a confirmed kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not breaking the ceasefire. This event introduced some uncertainty but did not derail ceasefire expectations.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire extension with the US, signaling ongoing negotiations despite earlier confusion. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed April 8 under Pakistani mediation as a two-week pause in the 2026 conflict, has been extended by President Trump pending an Iranian proposal on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation. Sporadic violations, including reported exchanges of fire near the strait on May 7 and continued Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, have tested the truce, yet both sides have publicly affirmed its continuation while accusing the other of breaches. Iran has used the period to assert control over Hormuz transit through bilateral fees and agreements, while talks remain stalled with no confirmed follow-on meetings. Upcoming diplomatic signals from Tehran or US statements on the blockade could shift the trajectory before scheduled resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed April 8 under Pakistani mediation as a two-week pause in the 2026 conflict, has been extended by President Trump pending an Iranian proposal on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation. Sporadic violations, including reported exchanges of fire near the strait on May 7 and continued Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, have tested the truce, yet both sides have publicly affirmed its continuation while accusing the other of breaches. Iran has used the period to assert control over Hormuz transit through bilateral fees and agreements, while talks remain stalled with no confirmed follow-on meetings. Upcoming diplomatic signals from Tehran or US statements on the blockade could shift the trajectory before scheduled resolution windows.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 24 surges to 90%20%
The US military struck two Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after exchanges of fire, raising doubts about the ceasefire. However, no official confirmation of US kinetic military action on Iranian soil was reported, so the market remained confident the ceasefire would hold through May 24.
May 21 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 22 rises to 94%4%
President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, injecting some uncertainty into the negotiations but not indicating a breakdown of the ceasefire, which kept market confidence high for May 22 and beyond.
May 21 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 99%5%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, escalating tensions but not constituting a kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not officially ending the ceasefire. This event caused some market volatility but confidence remained high.
May 21 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 22 jumps to 95%13%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue efforts to reignite ceasefire negotiations with the US, while President Trump suggested talks could occur by phone. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 20 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue ceasefire negotiations with the US, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement that supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange more US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move increased market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 21.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid renewed ceasefire talks
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, signaling ongoing negotiations and raising market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 21 and May 22.
May 20 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 90%8%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, raising tensions but not causing a confirmed kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not breaking the ceasefire. This event introduced some uncertainty but did not derail ceasefire expectations.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire extension with the US, signaling ongoing negotiations despite earlier confusion. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
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