Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran’s declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering most centrifuges inoperable and trapping stockpiles of 60% highly enriched uranium under rubble. IAEA inspectors have been denied access since the attacks, creating a loss of continuity of knowledge over Iran’s nuclear material and activities. Satellite imagery shows ongoing construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz, yet no verified enrichment or weaponization is occurring. The IAEA’s September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council underscores compliance concerns but highlights the program’s current dormancy rather than rapid progress toward a weapon. These setbacks, combined with the short timeline remaining before 2027, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear breakout remains unlikely in the immediate term.