Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment sites, burying much of its near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile under rubble and leaving the program largely dormant. IAEA reports confirm restricted inspector access, unresolved questions on undeclared sites, and no verified resumption of enrichment as of September 2026, while a June memorandum of understanding commits Tehran to maintaining the status quo. The IAEA's recent referral of Iran's file to the UN Security Council over safeguards noncompliance reinforces diplomatic pressure without evidence of imminent breakout. Traders assign 95.2% probability to no nuclear weapon by end-2026 due to these structural setbacks. Late shifts remain possible via accelerated underground construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain or recovery of stockpiles if inspections stay blocked.