Traders' 72% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any introduced federal legislation targeting sports prediction markets, amid Congress's focus on higher-priority issues like appropriations and debt ceiling negotiations in late 2024. The incoming 119th Congress, with Republican majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, shows little appetite for new regulatory burdens on gaming-adjacent sectors, as sports betting expands in 38 states post-2018 Supreme Court ruling. Existing CFTC prohibitions on gaming event contracts already limit such markets, diminishing urgency for a 2026 ban. No recent hearings, endorsements, or scandals have shifted sentiment, with next potential catalyst being early 2025 committee assignments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders' 72% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any introduced federal legislation targeting sports prediction markets, amid Congress's focus on higher-priority issues like appropriations and debt ceiling negotiations in late 2024. The incoming 119th Congress, with Republican majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, shows little appetite for new regulatory burdens on gaming-adjacent sectors, as sports betting expands in 38 states post-2018 Supreme Court ruling. Existing CFTC prohibitions on gaming event contracts already limit such markets, diminishing urgency for a 2026 ban. No recent hearings, endorsements, or scandals have shifted sentiment, with next potential catalyst being early 2025 committee assignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders' 72% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any introduced federal legislation targeting sports prediction markets, amid Congress's focus on higher-priority issues like appropriations and debt ceiling negotiations in late 2024. The incoming 119th Congress, with Republican majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, shows little appetite for new regulatory burdens on gaming-adjacent sectors, as sports betting expands in 38 states post-2018 Supreme Court ruling. Existing CFTC prohibitions on gaming event contracts already limit such markets, diminishing urgency for a 2026 ban. No recent hearings, endorsements, or scandals have shifted sentiment, with next potential catalyst being early 2025 committee assignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$0終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 72% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any introduced federal legislation targeting sports prediction markets, amid Congress's focus on higher-priority issues like appropriations and debt ceiling negotiations in late 2024. The incoming 119th Congress, with Republican majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, shows little appetite for new regulatory burdens on gaming-adjacent sectors, as sports betting expands in 38 states post-2018 Supreme Court ruling. Existing CFTC prohibitions on gaming event contracts already limit such markets, diminishing urgency for a 2026 ban. No recent hearings, endorsements, or scandals have shifted sentiment, with next potential catalyst being early 2025 committee assignments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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