Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs drives current trader sentiment, with Muse Spark 1.3 launching September 2, 2026—roughly four weeks after 1.2—via the Meta Model API and Muse Code. The update delivered Meta’s largest gains yet in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding benchmarks while using fewer tokens and tool calls, prompting CEO Mark Zuckerberg to highlight “frontier performance” and tease both a larger codenamed Watermelon model and open-weights releases. This monthly-scale cadence, combined with competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on multimodal reasoning and developer APIs, creates uncertainty around the exact timing of 1.4+, spreading implied probabilities across early-to-late October dates with no dominant outcome. Key near-term catalysts include potential earnings commentary or internal benchmark disclosures that could clarify the next release window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日10月29日 24%
10月15日 15%
10月13日 15%
10月22日 15%
新規
新規
2026/10/01
10月1日まで
16%
10月2日
24%
10月3日
13%
10月4日
23%
10月5日
13%
10月6日
14%
10月7日
14%
10月8日
14%
10月9日
9%
10月10日
7%
10月11日
13%
10月12日
13%
10月13日
15%
10月14日
14%
10月15日
15%
10月16日
13%
10月17日
14%
10月18日
8%
10月19日
14%
10月20日
14%
10月21日
13%
10月22日
15%
10月23日
7%
10月24日
15%
10月25日
13%
10月26日
14%
10月27日
12%
10月28日
13%
10月29日
24%
10月30日
15%
10月31日
5%
10月31日までにリリースなし
14%
10月29日 24%
10月15日 15%
10月13日 15%
10月22日 15%
新規
新規
2026/10/01
10月1日まで
$24 Vol.
16%
10月2日
$24 Vol.
24%
10月3日
$24 Vol.
13%
10月4日
$24 Vol.
23%
10月5日
$24 Vol.
13%
10月6日
$24 Vol.
14%
10月7日
$24 Vol.
14%
10月8日
$24 Vol.
14%
10月9日
$29 Vol.
9%
10月10日
$24 Vol.
7%
10月11日
$24 Vol.
13%
10月12日
$24 Vol.
13%
10月13日
$24 Vol.
15%
10月14日
$24 Vol.
14%
10月15日
$24 Vol.
15%
10月16日
$24 Vol.
13%
10月17日
$24 Vol.
14%
10月18日
$24 Vol.
8%
10月19日
$24 Vol.
14%
10月20日
$24 Vol.
14%
10月21日
$24 Vol.
13%
10月22日
$24 Vol.
15%
10月23日
$24 Vol.
7%
10月24日
$24 Vol.
15%
10月25日
$24 Vol.
13%
10月26日
$24 Vol.
14%
10月27日
$24 Vol.
12%
10月28日
$24 Vol.
13%
10月29日
$24 Vol.
24%
10月30日
$24 Vol.
15%
10月31日
$32 Vol.
5%
10月31日までにリリースなし
$24 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs drives current trader sentiment, with Muse Spark 1.3 launching September 2, 2026—roughly four weeks after 1.2—via the Meta Model API and Muse Code. The update delivered Meta’s largest gains yet in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding benchmarks while using fewer tokens and tool calls, prompting CEO Mark Zuckerberg to highlight “frontier performance” and tease both a larger codenamed Watermelon model and open-weights releases. This monthly-scale cadence, combined with competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on multimodal reasoning and developer APIs, creates uncertainty around the exact timing of 1.4+, spreading implied probabilities across early-to-late October dates with no dominant outcome. Key near-term catalysts include potential earnings commentary or internal benchmark disclosures that could clarify the next release window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
音量
$787終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs drives current trader sentiment, with Muse Spark 1.3 launching September 2, 2026—roughly four weeks after 1.2—via the Meta Model API and Muse Code. The update delivered Meta’s largest gains yet in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding benchmarks while using fewer tokens and tool calls, prompting CEO Mark Zuckerberg to highlight “frontier performance” and tease both a larger codenamed Watermelon model and open-weights releases. This monthly-scale cadence, combined with competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on multimodal reasoning and developer APIs, creates uncertainty around the exact timing of 1.4+, spreading implied probabilities across early-to-late October dates with no dominant outcome. Key near-term catalysts include potential earnings commentary or internal benchmark disclosures that could clarify the next release window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$787終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs drives current trader sentiment, with Muse Spark 1.3 launching September 2, 2026—roughly four weeks after 1.2—via the Meta Model API and Muse Code. The update delivered Meta’s largest gains yet in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding benchmarks while using fewer tokens and tool calls, prompting CEO Mark Zuckerberg to highlight “frontier performance” and tease both a larger codenamed Watermelon model and open-weights releases. This monthly-scale cadence, combined with competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on multimodal reasoning and developer APIs, creates uncertainty around the exact timing of 1.4+, spreading implied probabilities across early-to-late October dates with no dominant outcome. Key near-term catalysts include potential earnings commentary or internal benchmark disclosures that could clarify the next release window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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