Google's history of repeated delays on flagship Gemini Pro releases, including the prolonged slippage of Gemini 3.5 Pro beyond its May 2026 I/O promise and July target, combined with the recent September 2 launch of Gemini 3.8 Flash, forms the main driver behind the evenly distributed October probabilities. Traders see the next Pro variant as likely falling in early-to-mid October amid ongoing internal testing, partner feedback integration, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models, yet the lack of firm public timelines or confirmed benchmarks creates the observed 23–25% clustering across multiple dates. This uncertainty reflects Google's conservative rollout approach for frontier large language models and the typical 30-day cadence between major updates, with no release by month-end holding only 14.5% implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日10月16日 48%
10月18日 27%
10月24日 27%
10月19日 25%
新規
新規
2026/10/01
2026年10月1日まで
12%
10月2日
1%
10月3日
5%
10月4日
5%
10月5日
1%
10月6日
7%
10月7日
25%
10月8日
11%
10月9日
1%
10月10日
8%
10月11日
19%
10月12日
9%
10月13日
12%
10月14日
5%
10月15日
13%
10月16日
48%
10月17日
5%
10月18日
27%
10月19日
25%
10月20日
25%
10月21日
14%
10月22日
7%
10月23日
6%
10月24日
27%
10月25日
5%
10月26日
7%
10月27日
14%
10月28日
5%
10月29日
13%
10月30日
6%
10月31日
5%
10月31日までにリリースなし
8%
10月16日 48%
10月18日 27%
10月24日 27%
10月19日 25%
新規
新規
2026/10/01
2026年10月1日まで
$58 Vol.
12%
10月2日
$39 Vol.
1%
10月3日
$50 Vol.
5%
10月4日
$50 Vol.
5%
10月5日
$39 Vol.
1%
10月6日
$50 Vol.
7%
10月7日
$50 Vol.
25%
10月8日
$50 Vol.
11%
10月9日
$39 Vol.
1%
10月10日
$50 Vol.
8%
10月11日
$50 Vol.
19%
10月12日
$50 Vol.
9%
10月13日
$50 Vol.
12%
10月14日
$50 Vol.
5%
10月15日
$50 Vol.
13%
10月16日
$42 Vol.
48%
10月17日
$50 Vol.
5%
10月18日
$42 Vol.
27%
10月19日
$42 Vol.
25%
10月20日
$42 Vol.
25%
10月21日
$53 Vol.
14%
10月22日
$50 Vol.
7%
10月23日
$50 Vol.
6%
10月24日
$42 Vol.
27%
10月25日
$50 Vol.
5%
10月26日
$50 Vol.
7%
10月27日
$42 Vol.
14%
10月28日
$50 Vol.
5%
10月29日
$50 Vol.
13%
10月30日
$50 Vol.
6%
10月31日
$50 Vol.
5%
10月31日までにリリースなし
$55 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's history of repeated delays on flagship Gemini Pro releases, including the prolonged slippage of Gemini 3.5 Pro beyond its May 2026 I/O promise and July target, combined with the recent September 2 launch of Gemini 3.8 Flash, forms the main driver behind the evenly distributed October probabilities. Traders see the next Pro variant as likely falling in early-to-mid October amid ongoing internal testing, partner feedback integration, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models, yet the lack of firm public timelines or confirmed benchmarks creates the observed 23–25% clustering across multiple dates. This uncertainty reflects Google's conservative rollout approach for frontier large language models and the typical 30-day cadence between major updates, with no release by month-end holding only 14.5% implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
音量
$1,537終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's history of repeated delays on flagship Gemini Pro releases, including the prolonged slippage of Gemini 3.5 Pro beyond its May 2026 I/O promise and July target, combined with the recent September 2 launch of Gemini 3.8 Flash, forms the main driver behind the evenly distributed October probabilities. Traders see the next Pro variant as likely falling in early-to-mid October amid ongoing internal testing, partner feedback integration, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models, yet the lack of firm public timelines or confirmed benchmarks creates the observed 23–25% clustering across multiple dates. This uncertainty reflects Google's conservative rollout approach for frontier large language models and the typical 30-day cadence between major updates, with no release by month-end holding only 14.5% implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,537終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Google's history of repeated delays on flagship Gemini Pro releases, including the prolonged slippage of Gemini 3.5 Pro beyond its May 2026 I/O promise and July target, combined with the recent September 2 launch of Gemini 3.8 Flash, forms the main driver behind the evenly distributed October probabilities. Traders see the next Pro variant as likely falling in early-to-mid October amid ongoing internal testing, partner feedback integration, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models, yet the lack of firm public timelines or confirmed benchmarks creates the observed 23–25% clustering across multiple dates. This uncertainty reflects Google's conservative rollout approach for frontier large language models and the typical 30-day cadence between major updates, with no release by month-end holding only 14.5% implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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