Anthropic's recent model releases drive the current odds, with Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple independent leaderboards like BenchLM and LM Market Cap through September 22 on metrics including agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work. Its early September launch established it as the frontier leader among widely available models. The September 22 debut of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic positions as matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 performance on key benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost and higher speed, introduces fresh uncertainty just days before resolution. Traders assign claude-fable-5.1-max a strong but sub-50% chance while favoring "Other" at 55.5%, reflecting the tight competitive landscape with models like GPT-6 Astra and the possibility of rapid shifts or non-Claude frontrunners by September 28.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日その他 55%
claude-fable-5.1-max 43%
claude-opus-5-max 4.4%
claude-opus-4-6-high 1.1%
新規
新規
2026/09/28
その他
55%
claude-fable-5.1-max
43%
claude-opus-5-max
4%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
claude-opus-5-high
<1%
その他 55%
claude-fable-5.1-max 43%
claude-opus-5-max 4.4%
claude-opus-4-6-high 1.1%
新規
新規
2026/09/28
その他
$369 Vol.
55%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$201 Vol.
43%
claude-opus-5-max
$73 Vol.
4%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$113 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-5-high
$73 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent model releases drive the current odds, with Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple independent leaderboards like BenchLM and LM Market Cap through September 22 on metrics including agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work. Its early September launch established it as the frontier leader among widely available models. The September 22 debut of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic positions as matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 performance on key benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost and higher speed, introduces fresh uncertainty just days before resolution. Traders assign claude-fable-5.1-max a strong but sub-50% chance while favoring "Other" at 55.5%, reflecting the tight competitive landscape with models like GPT-6 Astra and the possibility of rapid shifts or non-Claude frontrunners by September 28.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
音量
$829終了日
2026/09/28マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent model releases drive the current odds, with Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple independent leaderboards like BenchLM and LM Market Cap through September 22 on metrics including agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work. Its early September launch established it as the frontier leader among widely available models. The September 22 debut of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic positions as matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 performance on key benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost and higher speed, introduces fresh uncertainty just days before resolution. Traders assign claude-fable-5.1-max a strong but sub-50% chance while favoring "Other" at 55.5%, reflecting the tight competitive landscape with models like GPT-6 Astra and the possibility of rapid shifts or non-Claude frontrunners by September 28.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$829終了日
2026/09/28マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent model releases drive the current odds, with Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple independent leaderboards like BenchLM and LM Market Cap through September 22 on metrics including agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work. Its early September launch established it as the frontier leader among widely available models. The September 22 debut of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic positions as matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 performance on key benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost and higher speed, introduces fresh uncertainty just days before resolution. Traders assign claude-fable-5.1-max a strong but sub-50% chance while favoring "Other" at 55.5%, reflecting the tight competitive landscape with models like GPT-6 Astra and the possibility of rapid shifts or non-Claude frontrunners by September 28.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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