OpenAI’s September 1 blog post on Astra’s “critical” cybersecurity threshold—its first model to meet that Preparedness Framework bar—has anchored trader expectations for an imminent public release. The post explicitly states the company plans to make Astra available “soon” after completing safety work, including new monitoring and refusal training, following earlier development pauses tied to July’s Hugging Face incident. This language, paired with Astra’s strong performance on ExploitBench and zero-day discovery benchmarks, has driven the market’s heavy weighting toward September 2–3 while keeping a modest probability on a full-month delay. Competitive pressure from models like Anthropic’s Mythos and OpenAI’s history of rapid frontier releases further support the early-September clustering, though the phased rollout (limited cyber capabilities for initial testers via Daybreak) introduces some timing uncertainty around general availability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月2日まで 30.0%
9月30日までにリリースなし 14%
9月13日 5%
9月7日 3.5%
新規
$16,623 Vol.
新規
$16,623 Vol.
2026/09/02
2026年9月2日まで
30%
9月3日
38%
9月4日
3%
9月5日
2%
9月6日
2%
9月7日
3%
9月8日
3%
9月9日
2%
9月10日
2%
9月11日
1%
9月12日
2%
9月13日
5%
9月14日
1%
9月15日
<1%
9月16日
3%
9月17日
2%
9月18日
1%
9月19日
2%
9月20日
2%
9月21日
3%
9月22日
2%
9月23日
2%
9月24日
1%
9月25日
3%
9月26日
2%
9月27日
1%
9月28日
3%
9月29日
2%
9月30日
2%
9月30日までにリリースなし
14%
2026年9月2日まで 30.0%
9月30日までにリリースなし 14%
9月13日 5%
9月7日 3.5%
新規
$16,623 Vol.
新規
$16,623 Vol.
2026/09/02
2026年9月2日まで
$1,019 Vol.
30%
9月3日
$1,116 Vol.
38%
9月4日
$916 Vol.
3%
9月5日
$520 Vol.
2%
9月6日
$520 Vol.
2%
9月7日
$520 Vol.
3%
9月8日
$520 Vol.
3%
9月9日
$520 Vol.
2%
9月10日
$440 Vol.
2%
9月11日
$435 Vol.
1%
9月12日
$430 Vol.
2%
9月13日
$657 Vol.
5%
9月14日
$567 Vol.
1%
9月15日
$779 Vol.
<1%
9月16日
$430 Vol.
3%
9月17日
$430 Vol.
2%
9月18日
$435 Vol.
1%
9月19日
$430 Vol.
2%
9月20日
$430 Vol.
2%
9月21日
$440 Vol.
3%
9月22日
$430 Vol.
2%
9月23日
$440 Vol.
2%
9月24日
$430 Vol.
1%
9月25日
$440 Vol.
3%
9月26日
$440 Vol.
2%
9月27日
$445 Vol.
1%
9月28日
$440 Vol.
3%
9月29日
$430 Vol.
2%
9月30日
$440 Vol.
2%
9月30日までにリリースなし
$1,133 Vol.
14%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 blog post on Astra’s “critical” cybersecurity threshold—its first model to meet that Preparedness Framework bar—has anchored trader expectations for an imminent public release. The post explicitly states the company plans to make Astra available “soon” after completing safety work, including new monitoring and refusal training, following earlier development pauses tied to July’s Hugging Face incident. This language, paired with Astra’s strong performance on ExploitBench and zero-day discovery benchmarks, has driven the market’s heavy weighting toward September 2–3 while keeping a modest probability on a full-month delay. Competitive pressure from models like Anthropic’s Mythos and OpenAI’s history of rapid frontier releases further support the early-September clustering, though the phased rollout (limited cyber capabilities for initial testers via Daybreak) introduces some timing uncertainty around general availability.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
音量
$16,623終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 blog post on Astra’s “critical” cybersecurity threshold—its first model to meet that Preparedness Framework bar—has anchored trader expectations for an imminent public release. The post explicitly states the company plans to make Astra available “soon” after completing safety work, including new monitoring and refusal training, following earlier development pauses tied to July’s Hugging Face incident. This language, paired with Astra’s strong performance on ExploitBench and zero-day discovery benchmarks, has driven the market’s heavy weighting toward September 2–3 while keeping a modest probability on a full-month delay. Competitive pressure from models like Anthropic’s Mythos and OpenAI’s history of rapid frontier releases further support the early-September clustering, though the phased rollout (limited cyber capabilities for initial testers via Daybreak) introduces some timing uncertainty around general availability.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$16,623終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 1 blog post on Astra’s “critical” cybersecurity threshold—its first model to meet that Preparedness Framework bar—has anchored trader expectations for an imminent public release. The post explicitly states the company plans to make Astra available “soon” after completing safety work, including new monitoring and refusal training, following earlier development pauses tied to July’s Hugging Face incident. This language, paired with Astra’s strong performance on ExploitBench and zero-day discovery benchmarks, has driven the market’s heavy weighting toward September 2–3 while keeping a modest probability on a full-month delay. Competitive pressure from models like Anthropic’s Mythos and OpenAI’s history of rapid frontier releases further support the early-September clustering, though the phased rollout (limited cyber capabilities for initial testers via Daybreak) introduces some timing uncertainty around general availability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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