The open Senate race in Rio Grande do Sul for two seats on October 4, 2026, features no incumbents and a fragmented field of more than a dozen pre-candidates from parties including PT, PSOL, MDB, Novo, PL, PSDB, and Cidadania. Recent Genial/Quaest polling shows a technical tie among top contenders such as Manuela D'Ávila, Germano Rigotto, Paulo Pimenta, Marcel Van Hattem, and Ubiratan Sanderson, with first- and second-preference votes closely bunched in single digits to low teens. A July debate among eight pre-candidates highlighted shared themes like state debt and institutional issues without producing clear separation. Trader consensus on 2nd-place probabilities remains compressed because the multi-candidate structure and absence of dominant frontrunners keep outcomes highly sensitive to late shifts in alliances, turnout, and additional surveys.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日レナート・ジャグアラン 27%
マヌエラ・ダヴィラ 25%
ピメンタ 25%
サンデルソン 24%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
レナート・ジャグアラン
27%
マヌエラ・ダヴィラ
25%
ピメンタ
25%
サンデルソン
24%
リゴット
23%
マルセル・ヴァン・ハッテン
22%
ミルトン・カルドーゾ
19%
フレデリコ・アントゥネス
19%
リック・ジョーンズ
11%
ルシアーノ・ド・MLB
9%
レジス・エチュール
8%
ダニエラ・ムリェーレス・ソシアリスタス
8%
タニア・ペレス
24%
レナート・ジャグアラン 27%
マヌエラ・ダヴィラ 25%
ピメンタ 25%
サンデルソン 24%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
レナート・ジャグアラン
$20 Vol.
27%
マヌエラ・ダヴィラ
$20 Vol.
25%
ピメンタ
$20 Vol.
25%
サンデルソン
$20 Vol.
24%
リゴット
$20 Vol.
23%
マルセル・ヴァン・ハッテン
$20 Vol.
22%
ミルトン・カルドーゾ
$20 Vol.
19%
フレデリコ・アントゥネス
$20 Vol.
19%
リック・ジョーンズ
$59 Vol.
11%
ルシアーノ・ド・MLB
$101 Vol.
9%
レジス・エチュール
$87 Vol.
8%
ダニエラ・ムリェーレス・ソシアリスタス
$71 Vol.
8%
タニア・ペレス
$280 Vol.
24%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The open Senate race in Rio Grande do Sul for two seats on October 4, 2026, features no incumbents and a fragmented field of more than a dozen pre-candidates from parties including PT, PSOL, MDB, Novo, PL, PSDB, and Cidadania. Recent Genial/Quaest polling shows a technical tie among top contenders such as Manuela D'Ávila, Germano Rigotto, Paulo Pimenta, Marcel Van Hattem, and Ubiratan Sanderson, with first- and second-preference votes closely bunched in single digits to low teens. A July debate among eight pre-candidates highlighted shared themes like state debt and institutional issues without producing clear separation. Trader consensus on 2nd-place probabilities remains compressed because the multi-candidate structure and absence of dominant frontrunners keep outcomes highly sensitive to late shifts in alliances, turnout, and additional surveys.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
音量
$757終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The open Senate race in Rio Grande do Sul for two seats on October 4, 2026, features no incumbents and a fragmented field of more than a dozen pre-candidates from parties including PT, PSOL, MDB, Novo, PL, PSDB, and Cidadania. Recent Genial/Quaest polling shows a technical tie among top contenders such as Manuela D'Ávila, Germano Rigotto, Paulo Pimenta, Marcel Van Hattem, and Ubiratan Sanderson, with first- and second-preference votes closely bunched in single digits to low teens. A July debate among eight pre-candidates highlighted shared themes like state debt and institutional issues without producing clear separation. Trader consensus on 2nd-place probabilities remains compressed because the multi-candidate structure and absence of dominant frontrunners keep outcomes highly sensitive to late shifts in alliances, turnout, and additional surveys.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$757終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The open Senate race in Rio Grande do Sul for two seats on October 4, 2026, features no incumbents and a fragmented field of more than a dozen pre-candidates from parties including PT, PSOL, MDB, Novo, PL, PSDB, and Cidadania. Recent Genial/Quaest polling shows a technical tie among top contenders such as Manuela D'Ávila, Germano Rigotto, Paulo Pimenta, Marcel Van Hattem, and Ubiratan Sanderson, with first- and second-preference votes closely bunched in single digits to low teens. A July debate among eight pre-candidates highlighted shared themes like state debt and institutional issues without producing clear separation. Trader consensus on 2nd-place probabilities remains compressed because the multi-candidate structure and absence of dominant frontrunners keep outcomes highly sensitive to late shifts in alliances, turnout, and additional surveys.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問