The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race remains highly fragmented ahead of the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting broad uncertainty across a crowded field of declared candidates including Marcel Van Hattem (NOVO), Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Milton Cardoso (PSDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Germano Rigotto (MDB). Early surveys show no candidate consistently above 30 percent, as the open seat draws competing center-right, left, and centrist figures without an incumbent advantage or dominant coalition. This balance sustains tight implied probabilities, with separation likely hinging on coalition formations, further polling releases, and campaign momentum once formal activities intensify later this month. Historical patterns in Brazilian state Senate contests indicate that late shifts in voter turnout or alliances frequently reorder the leaderboard.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Milton Cardoso 36%
Manuela D'Ávila 34%
Marcel Van Hattem 32%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas 31%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
Milton Cardoso
36%
Manuela D'Ávila
24%
Marcel Van Hattem
22%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
31%
Regis Ethur
28%
Sanderson
11%
Rigotto
10%
Frederico Antunes
9%
Ric Jones
8%
Tania Peres
8%
Luciano do MLB
8%
Pimenta
8%
Renato Jaguarão
8%
Milton Cardoso 36%
Manuela D'Ávila 34%
Marcel Van Hattem 32%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas 31%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
Milton Cardoso
$69 Vol.
36%
Manuela D'Ávila
$110 Vol.
24%
Marcel Van Hattem
$150 Vol.
22%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
$69 Vol.
31%
Regis Ethur
$69 Vol.
28%
Sanderson
$102 Vol.
11%
Rigotto
$69 Vol.
10%
Frederico Antunes
$141 Vol.
9%
Ric Jones
$69 Vol.
8%
Tania Peres
$155 Vol.
8%
Luciano do MLB
$68 Vol.
8%
Pimenta
$69 Vol.
8%
Renato Jaguarão
$69 Vol.
8%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race remains highly fragmented ahead of the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting broad uncertainty across a crowded field of declared candidates including Marcel Van Hattem (NOVO), Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Milton Cardoso (PSDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Germano Rigotto (MDB). Early surveys show no candidate consistently above 30 percent, as the open seat draws competing center-right, left, and centrist figures without an incumbent advantage or dominant coalition. This balance sustains tight implied probabilities, with separation likely hinging on coalition formations, further polling releases, and campaign momentum once formal activities intensify later this month. Historical patterns in Brazilian state Senate contests indicate that late shifts in voter turnout or alliances frequently reorder the leaderboard.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
音量
$1,205終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race remains highly fragmented ahead of the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting broad uncertainty across a crowded field of declared candidates including Marcel Van Hattem (NOVO), Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Milton Cardoso (PSDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Germano Rigotto (MDB). Early surveys show no candidate consistently above 30 percent, as the open seat draws competing center-right, left, and centrist figures without an incumbent advantage or dominant coalition. This balance sustains tight implied probabilities, with separation likely hinging on coalition formations, further polling releases, and campaign momentum once formal activities intensify later this month. Historical patterns in Brazilian state Senate contests indicate that late shifts in voter turnout or alliances frequently reorder the leaderboard.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$1,205終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race remains highly fragmented ahead of the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting broad uncertainty across a crowded field of declared candidates including Marcel Van Hattem (NOVO), Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Milton Cardoso (PSDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Germano Rigotto (MDB). Early surveys show no candidate consistently above 30 percent, as the open seat draws competing center-right, left, and centrist figures without an incumbent advantage or dominant coalition. This balance sustains tight implied probabilities, with separation likely hinging on coalition formations, further polling releases, and campaign momentum once formal activities intensify later this month. Historical patterns in Brazilian state Senate contests indicate that late shifts in voter turnout or alliances frequently reorder the leaderboard.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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