Recent poor results in the May 2026 local, Senedd, and Scottish Parliament elections triggered a leadership crisis for Keir Starmer, with nearly 100 Labour MPs publicly calling for his resignation or an exit timetable and several cabinet ministers and junior officials stepping down in protest. Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, issued a sharp public rebuke and signaled interest in a leadership contest. Starmer has retained his large Commons majority and committed to remaining in post while addressing cost-of-living pressures, NHS waiting lists, and defense funding. Additional ministerial exits in June have added to internal party strain. Traders price a low probability of departure before mid-June but rising odds later in 2026, reflecting ongoing speculation about a potential challenge before the next general election due by 2029.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns resign over military spending dispute
December 31 jumps to 81%8%
The resignations of Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns in June 2026 over defence funding disputes exposed deep government divisions and further weakened Starmer's authority, intensifying speculation about his imminent departure.
Keir Starmer faces ministerial resignations amid leadership crisis
July 31 rises to 40%2%
Multiple junior ministers resigned in early June 2026, signaling a government in crisis and increasing speculation about Starmer's imminent departure, reflected in falling market prices for near-term exit dates.
Labour party poll shows just 25 % confidence in Starmer’s leadership
A poll released showing only ~25 % of Labour members thought the party was moving in the right direction caused the market’s Yes‑price for the October 31 outcome to jump from 51 % to 75 % within a few days.
Market prices surge for Starmer's removal by October 31, 2025 amid leadership challenge rumors
October 31 surges to 77%26%
Speculation about a leadership challenge and potential successors like Wes Streeting caused a sharp increase in market pricing for Starmer's exit by October 31, reflecting heightened expectations of his departure in the second half of 2025.
Housing minister Miatta Fahnbulleh resigns, urges Starmer to set departure timetable
July 31 drops to 37%13%
GB News reported that Housing, Communities and Local Government minister Miatta Fahnbulleh resigned, becoming the first cabinet member to quit and openly urging Starmer to set a timetable for his departure. The resignation knocked the “July 31” price down to 37 % as traders saw an accelerating leadership crisis.
Andy Burnham announces leadership challenge against Starmer
December 31 jumps to 74%5%
Andy Burnham declared he would challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership if he wins the Makerfield by-election, intensifying the leadership contest and uncertainty over Starmer's future.
Makerfield by-election announced for June 18, pivotal for Labour leadership
June 15 plunges to 2%48%
The by-election triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons' resignation will allow Andy Burnham to attempt a return to Parliament, potentially challenging Starmer for party leadership. This event increased market focus on mid-June as a critical timeframe for Starmer's future.
Starmer delivers King’s Speech amid rebellion, fails to quiet dissent
December 31 plunges to 72%17%
Starmer’s King’s Speech (13 May) and subsequent attempts to placate rebels failed, causing a brief rally in the “December 31” odds (up to 89 % on 17 May) followed by a sharp fall to 72 % on 1 June as the market realised leadership pressure persisted.
Labour rebels plot to defeat Starmer over £5bn benefits cut, frontbench resigns
July 31 plunges to 23%27%
Labour MPs and ministers publicly opposed Starmer's welfare reforms, with resignations and rebellion increasing pressure on his leadership and causing market prices for earlier exit dates to drop sharply.
Additional junior‑minister and aide resignations widen revolt against Starmer
July 31 drops to 38%12%
A flurry of resignations by junior ministers and aides over the weekend (including further cabinet aides) saw the “July 31” contract drop sharply from 50 % to the high‑30 % range, reflecting short‑term market fear that the leadership revolt was deepening.
Starmer's Exit Odds Shift Away from June and July Options
June 15 plunges to 8%42%
As Starmer refused to resign and prepared to fight any formal leadership challenge, the probability of an immediate exit in June or July collapsed, shifting expectations to a later date.
Senior aides resign amid growing pressure on Starmer
June 15 plunges to 8%42%
Starmer lost his deputy prime minister, US ambassador, and top strategist within two weeks, increasing perceptions of instability and contributing to sharp market drops in short-term resignation timing probabilities.
Labour party polls show plummeting support for Starmer
June 15 plunges to 8%42%
Polls of Labour party members revealed only 25% believed the party was moving in the right direction and only 26% had a positive opinion of Starmer, fueling market declines in short-term resignation odds.
Starmer faces intensified internal rebellion with over 95 Labour MPs demanding resignation
December 31 rises to 74%2%
By late May, the number of Labour MPs calling for Starmer's resignation grew to over 95, including several ministers and aides, marking a peak in internal party dissent and pushing market prices for his exit higher.
Labour MPs intensify calls for Starmer to set resignation timetable
June 15 plunges to 3%47%
Following poor election results and multiple resignations, Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer either resign or announce a departure timetable. This internal pressure contributed to a sharp decline in short-term resignation market prices, reflecting skepticism about an imminent exit.
Labour members poll shows record 45 % demand Starmer’s resignation
December 31 surges to 85%17%
A poll of Labour members showed 45 % now want Starmer to step down, up from 28 % in October. The surge in internal opposition pushed the “December 31” price from 68 % to 85 % YES within a week, the highest level recorded in the series.
Health secretary and junior ministers resign, 95 Labour MPs demand Starmer’s exit
June 15 plunges to 0%50%
Two days after the disastrous 2026 local elections, Wes Streeting (Health Secretary) and three junior ministers quit, and a total of 95 Labour MPs signed a letter calling for Starmer’s resignation. The wave of resignations drove the market’s price for the June 15 outcome from about 50 % to 0 % as traders priced in a near‑certain leadership overthrow.
UK to host international meeting on reopening Strait of Hormuz amid Middle East conflict
Prime Minister Starmer announced a virtual meeting of 35 countries to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz after regional conflict, reflecting his active international leadership despite domestic challenges. This event had limited direct impact on the Starmer Out market but contextualizes his premiership environment.
Starmer vows to fight next election, refuses to set resignation timetable
December 31 rises to 74%1%
A Wandsworth Guardian piece reported Starmer’s vow to fight the next general election despite mounting pressure, which helped stabilize the “December 31” price at 74 % after it had been volatile earlier in May.
Senior Cabinet ministers rally around Starmer amid leadership crisis
December 31 dips to 71%2%
Despite the ongoing scandal and political pressure, senior Cabinet ministers publicly supported Starmer, helping stabilize his position and contributing to a partial recovery in the market probability for his staying until the end of 2026.
YouGov/Times poll finds 51 % view Starmer as as sleazy as Boris Johnson
December 31 surges to 84%29%
A YouGov/Times poll released on 20 May showed 51 % of respondents thought Starmer was as sleazy as Boris Johnson, underscoring his plummeting personal popularity. The market’s “December 31” outcome rose sharply from the mid‑50 % level to 59 % and kept climbing to 84 % by 11 June.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat, sparking party row
June 30 drops to 30%5%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election fueled internal party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges, affecting market confidence in Starmer’s near-term survival.
OBR reveals £1.6 bn shortfall in government’s welfare‑cut plan
December 31 jumps to 73%11%
The OBR published a revised estimate showing the government’s promised welfare‑saving £5 bn was actually only £3.4 bn, deepening the fiscal credibility crisis. The surprise shortfall revived fears of a leadership collapse, pushing the “December 31” probability to a new peak of 73 %.
Wes Streeting speaks in Commons, emphasizing Labour’s struggle against nationalism
June 15 dips to 3%3%
Wes Streeting’s first Commons speech after his resignation highlighted the party’s internal split, sustaining the market’s bearish view on a near‑term resignation and keeping the "June 15" odds near the low single‑digit level.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat, sparking party row
December 31 jumps to 76%5%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election fueled internal Labour Party tensions and speculation about Starmer’s leadership, contributing to market volatility.
Conservative leader Badenoch calls for Starmer’s resignation after Robbins dismissal
July 31 drops to 41%9%
GB News reported Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch publicly demanding Starmer’s resignation following the dismissal of senior diplomat Olly Robbins (related to the Mandelson vetting crisis). The statement coincided with the final collapse of the “July 31” probability (price fell from 50 % to 41 %).
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament, sparking internal party conflict
June 30 drops to 30%9%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election was seen as an attempt to prevent a leadership challenge to Starmer, highlighting internal party tensions and affecting market sentiment on Starmer’s future.
Starmer vows to continue governing despite mounting leadership pressure
December 31 drops to 73%14%
In response to ongoing criticism and calls for resignation, Starmer publicly committed to carrying on with his government’s work, causing a brief market correction in the probability of his departure by December 31.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham's bid for parliamentary seat, sparking internal party row
December 31 rises to 74%4%
The Labour Party's decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election was seen as an attempt to prevent a leadership challenge to Starmer. This deepened internal divisions and uncertainty about Starmer's future.
Keir Starmer chairs first Cabinet meeting since Wes Streeting’s resignation
December 31 jumps to 74%6%
Starmer convened his new Cabinet, reaffirming his intention to remain as Prime Minister despite ongoing leadership challenges and calls for resignation, temporarily stabilizing market sentiment.
Keir Starmer publicly refuses to resign amid mounting pressure
Starmer stated he would not walk away as Prime Minister despite the leadership crisis and electoral setbacks, signaling his intent to fight the next election. This stance caused some market stabilization but maintained uncertainty about his eventual departure.
Over 90 Labour MPs demand Starmer set departure date amid leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 73%8%
A significant number of Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to announce a departure timetable, reflecting deep party divisions and sharply increasing market probabilities of his exit by year-end.
Keir Starmer Resignation Odds Peak at 87%
December 31 dips to 72%2%
Market odds reached their highest point, with Ladbrokes pricing Starmer as short as 1/7 to leave before the next general election. This reflected the culmination of multiple scandals and declining polling.
Starmer warns leadership challenge would damage Labour’s election chances
June 15 rises to 4%1%
Starmer warned that a leadership challenge could jeopardise the next election, prompting a brief rally in the June 15 market (price ticked up from 3 % to 4 % on 31 May). The move reflected traders’ belief he might temporarily stabilise the party.
Starmer visits China seeking economic boost amid strained US ties
December 31 surges to 88%15%
Starmer’s visit to China aimed to improve economic relations and offset domestic challenges, but also exposed him to criticism over national security and human rights concerns, influencing market perceptions of his political stability and contributing to price fluctuations.
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting says he will contest any leadership challenge
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting declared he would stand in any leadership contest, keeping the leadership question alive and maintaining the “July 31” contract at roughly 39 % through the end of the analysis window.
Market surges on intensified speculation of Starmer's imminent exit
December 31 jumps to 87%14%
Following sustained political turmoil and leadership challenges, betting markets sharply increased the probability of Starmer leaving office by year-end, reflecting heightened investor confidence in his departure.
Starmer's Mandelson scandal peaks with May 17 price surge
December 31 surges to 89%18%
The May 17 price peak at 89% coincided with the peak of the Mandelson scandal coverage, showing the market's sensitivity to the ongoing political crisis.
Wes Streeting confirms he will stand in leadership contest against Starmer
December 31 jumps to 70%5%
After resigning, Wes Streeting announced his intention to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership, escalating the internal party crisis. This announcement increased market expectations of a leadership change before the end of 2026, particularly affecting mid-year resignation probabilities.
Reports emerge that Starmer plans to step down amid Labour turmoil
December 31 rises to 76%2%
Amid growing internal party pressure and resignations, reports indicated Starmer intends to announce a timetable for an orderly departure, signaling an imminent end to his premiership and driving market prices higher.
Starmer reportedly plans to resign on his own terms
July 31 drops to 37%13%
Reports that Starmer had privately told allies he intended to step down (India Today) pushed the market’s “July 31” odds down from 50 % to 37 % by 11 June, indicating belief that the leadership change would occur before the end of July.
Starmer plans to step down on own terms amid Labour turmoil
December 31 rises to 72%3%
Reports emerged that Starmer intends to announce a timetable for stepping down as Prime Minister, reflecting escalating internal party pressure and signaling an impending leadership change.
Reports emerge that Keir Starmer plans to resign with an orderly transition
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Amid mounting pressure and internal party turmoil, reports surfaced that Starmer intends to step down as Prime Minister, planning an orderly transition rather than an abrupt exit, reflecting the culmination of the crisis.
Wes Streeting announces leadership challenge against Keir Starmer
June 30 rises to 68%4%
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned and declared his intention to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership, intensifying the leadership crisis and causing market shifts with increased odds of Starmer leaving by June 30, 2026.
Keir Starmer reportedly plans to step down on his own terms amid Labour turmoil
December 31 jumps to 80%7%
Reports emerged that Starmer intends to announce a timetable for stepping down as Prime Minister, reflecting the culmination of internal party pressure and resignations. This news influenced the December 31 outcome price, increasing expectations of his eventual departure.
Keir Starmer reportedly plans orderly resignation amid Labour rebellion
December 31 jumps to 72%5%
Reports emerged that Starmer intended to step down as Prime Minister on his own terms, announcing a timeline for an orderly transition, reflecting acceptance of his weakened position and influencing market expectations for the December 31 outcome.
Streeting officially challenges Starmer for Labour leadership
June 15 rises to 4%2%
Altcoin Observer noted Streeting’s formal leadership challenge announcement on 17 May, which caused a brief rebound in the “June 15” market (price rising to 4 % before falling again) and cemented the market’s view that Starmer’s tenure would not survive past early summer.
Keir Starmer announces plans to step down as UK Prime Minister
December 31 surges to 88%20%
Starmer informed close allies of his intention to resign and is discussing a timeline for departure, causing a sharp increase in market prices for his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Labour lawmakers call for Starmer to resign following Mandelson revelations
December 31 surges to 92%21%
Increased pressure from within the Labour Party for Starmer to step down reached a peak, reflected in the market's high 'Yes' probability for his departure.
Reports emerge that Keir Starmer plans to step down as Prime Minister
Amid mounting internal party pressure and public protests, Starmer reportedly told close allies he intends to announce a timeline for an orderly transition, causing a significant jump in market prices for his exit by the end of 2025.
Market spikes on rising odds of Starmer resignation
December 31 surges to 92%25%
Market prices for Starmer's removal surged to a high of 92% for December 31, reflecting growing belief in his imminent departure amid ongoing party unrest and scandals.
Reports emerge Keir Starmer preparing to stand down with orderly timetable
June 30 surges to 64%36%
Media reports and insider leaks suggested Starmer was planning an orderly departure timetable, increasing market speculation about his exit, especially affecting the June 30 and December 31 outcomes with rising probabilities for resignation within 2026.
Reports say Keir Starmer preparing to stand down with orderly timetable
December 31 surges to 80%18%
Multiple reports, including from Daily Mail and ITV, indicated Starmer privately intends to resign and is setting a departure timetable, though no official announcement was made, causing market spikes in longer-term resignation odds.
Reports say Keir Starmer preparing to stand down amid Labour revolt
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
Reports emerged that Starmer had privately told friends he intended to stand down and was setting an orderly timetable for departure, though no official announcement was made. This fueled market speculation and caused sharp declines in prices for earlier resignation dates.
Wes Streeting challenges Keir Starmer for Labour leadership amid tensions
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting officially announced his leadership challenge against Starmer, reflecting deepening party divisions. This announcement increased market expectations for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Market surge in Starmer resignation odds amid intensified leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 92%36%
Market prices for Starmer leaving office by December 31 peaked at 92% on May 16, reflecting heightened expectations of his resignation due to ongoing political instability and ministerial departures.
Reports say Keir Starmer may be preparing to stand down amid Labour revolt
December 31 surges to 87%18%
Reports emerged that Starmer had privately told friends he intends to stand down and set an orderly timetable for his departure, though no official resignation was announced. This fueled market speculation and increased the likelihood of Starmer leaving office by the end of 2025 and mid-2026.
Keir Starmer faces leadership challenge amid Labour Party unrest
June 30 jumps to 32%6%
Labour MPs openly called for Starmer's resignation, with threats of leadership challenges and support for successors like Wes Streeting, increasing market uncertainty and YES pricing for Starmer's removal by June 30, 2026.
Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign or set departure timetable
June 15 drops to 2%6%
Over 95 Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation or a clear timetable for departure, reflecting deep party fractures and driving market prices sharply down for short-term departure outcomes.
Keir Starmer hit by frontbench resignation as Labour rebels plot to defeat PM
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
Frontbench resignations and rebellion over welfare cuts intensified pressure on Starmer, signaling deep party divisions and weakening his leadership, contributing to market declines in short-term resignation odds.
Over 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign
December 31 dips to 73%2%
Following poor election results and internal dissent, more than 70 Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer announce a timetable for departure, intensifying the leadership crisis and impacting market prices for his continued tenure.
Health secretary Wes Streeting resigns, sparking mutiny in Starmer’s government
June 30 surges to 74%38%
Health secretary Wes Streeting announced his resignation, marking the start of a “mutiny”. The news coincided with the market’s biggest swing for the "June 30" outcome, which rose dramatically on May 15‑16 before falling again as the resignation intensified uncertainty.
Starmer apologizes to Epstein victims amid leadership pressure
December 31 jumps to 88%14%
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson, acknowledging the damage caused and facing increased calls for his resignation, which influenced market volatility and price swings.
Starmer’s leadership support surges amid intensified Mandelson-Epstein scandal revelations
December 31 surges to 87%25%
Following new revelations and Starmer’s public apology for Mandelson’s appointment, the market saw a sharp increase in the probability of Starmer leaving by December 31, reflecting heightened political instability and leadership doubts.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson‑Epstein fallout
December 31 jumps to 88%14%
The resignation of Starmer’s chief of staff over the Mandelson scandal signaled internal turmoil and reinforced market expectations of a possible leadership change, contributing to the final surge toward 88% confidence.
MP Catherine West announces leadership challenge against Starmer
December 31 rises to 73%3%
Following mounting pressure and poor election results, MP Catherine West announced her intention to mount a leadership campaign, intensifying the internal party challenge and increasing market expectations of Starmer's exit before the end of 2025.
Wes Streeting challenges Keir Starmer for Labour leadership amid cross-party tensions
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting officially announced his intention to challenge Starmer for Labour Party leadership, signaling significant internal party tensions. This announcement increased market odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Starmer faces intensified calls to resign as party fractures deepen
December 31 jumps to 89%5%
With mounting pressure from MPs and ministers, Starmer's position became increasingly untenable, reflected in market peaks for his departure by year-end.
Reports emerge that Keir Starmer may be preparing to stand down
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Media reports and insider accounts suggested Starmer was planning an orderly departure timetable amid mounting pressure, fueling market speculation and causing significant price movements in the resignation timing markets.
Labour Party unrest intensifies with leadership challenge threat
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Labour MPs openly called for Starmer's resignation and threatened a leadership challenge, with Wes Streeting announcing his intention to challenge Starmer. This internal party strife increased market odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Wes Streeting resigns as Health Secretary, citing lost confidence in Starmer
Wes Streeting resigned from his cabinet position, publicly stating he had lost confidence in Starmer's leadership and that Starmer would not lead Labour into the next general election. This resignation intensified the leadership crisis and caused significant market price fluctuations.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing loss of confidence in Starmer
June 15 dips to 0%2%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting announced his resignation, saying he had lost confidence in Starmer’s leadership. The resignation was the catalyst for the market’s collapse of the “June 15” contract to 0 % and a further slide in the “June 30” line, as traders interpreted it as a sign that a leadership challenge was imminent.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting quits, signaling a possible leadership challenge
June 15 plunges to 8%42%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting announced he would resign from the cabinet, citing a loss of confidence in Starmer. The resignation was interpreted as the first concrete step toward a leadership contest, pushing the market’s “June 15” price down from 50 % to 8 % YES within two days.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, saying he lost confidence in Prime Minister Starmer
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned, publicly stating he had lost confidence in Starmer. The resignation, coming days after the local‑election turmoil, spiked market expectations that Starmer could be forced out before year‑end, lifting the Yes‑price on the December 31 outcome.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing lost confidence in Starmer
December 31 surges to 74%23%
Wes Streeting resigned on May 14, 2026, stating he had lost confidence in Starmer's leadership and that Starmer would not lead Labour into the next general election. This high-profile resignation was a major blow to Starmer and intensified market expectations of his exit.
Joint UK‑Norway naval patrols announced to counter Russian submarines
June 30 surges to 67%27%
The defence agreement with Norway was portrayed as a strong security move, giving a modest boost to confidence in Starmer’s leadership for the June‑30 and May‑31 outcomes.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
December 31 jumps to 74%5%
The resignation of Starmer's chief of staff, who advised on Mandelson's appointment, deepened the crisis and raised questions about Starmer's leadership and accountability, pushing market probabilities for his exit higher.
Keir Starmer appoints Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman in premiership reset
December 31 surges to 67%18%
In response to electoral defeats and internal dissent, Starmer appointed former PM Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman to advisory roles to stabilize his leadership, temporarily boosting market confidence for his tenure through December 31, 2026.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting quits, urges Starmer to set a resignation timetable
June 30 plunges to 14%55%
Streeting resigned as Health Secretary (Richmond & Twickenham Times) and publicly called for Starmer to set a resignation timetable. The announcement coincided with a plunge of the “Starmer out by June 30” price from ~55 % to under 20 % over the next few days, reflecting market belief that a leadership challenge was imminent.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, says Starmer will not lead Labour into next election
June 30 drops to 14%14%
Streeting resigned as Health Secretary, publicly stating he had lost confidence in Starmer. The announcement pushed the “June 30” probability from 28 % on 15 May to 14 % on 16 May and sent the “June 15” line to near‑zero (2 % on 15 May, 0 % on 9 Jun).
Starmer apologizes to Epstein victims and faces calls to resign
May 31 dips to 21%4%
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson and faced mounting pressure from opposition and some Labour lawmakers, further eroding confidence in his leadership and impacting market prices for near-term departure outcomes.
Keir Starmer faces fierce standoff with leadership rivals amid looming resignations
June 30 dips to 45%1%
Reports emerged of multiple leadership rivals preparing to challenge Starmer, with Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband among potential contenders. This heightened internal party conflict and uncertainty about Starmer's future, contributing to market price fluctuations and increased probability of his resignation by mid-2026.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, blaming loss of confidence in Starmer
June 15 plunges to 2%48%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting quit, citing a loss of confidence in Starmer’s leadership. The move was interpreted as the most damaging ministerial exit and triggered a sharp collapse in the “June 15” contract (down to 2 %) and pulled the “June 30” probability even lower.
Starmer apologises to victims after Mandelson‑Epstein investigation expands
A new police investigation into Mandelson’s alleged leaks to Epstein revived the scandal, causing a sharp price jump for the “Yes” outcome as traders feared a leadership crisis.
Keir Starmer meets Wes Streeting amid leadership challenge
December 31 rises to 69%1%
Starmer met with former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who had resigned and announced plans to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership, signaling a serious internal party contest and increasing pressure on Starmer.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, signaling leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 80%8%
Streeting's resignation as a senior cabinet minister marked a critical escalation in the leadership crisis, increasing market expectations for Starmer's departure before year-end.
Wes Streeting challenges Keir Starmer for Labour leadership amid tensions
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting officially announced a leadership challenge against Starmer, reflecting internal party tensions and increasing market odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Junior ministers resign and 70+ Labour MPs demand Starmer’s resignation after local election losses
June 30 plunges to 13%21%
After the disastrous May 2026 local elections, two junior ministers (Fahnbulleh and Phillips) submitted resignation letters and over 70 Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to step down. The market’s “June 30” contract slid from 34 % to 13 % within a week, and the “June 15” contract plunged to 2 % as traders priced in an imminent leadership challenge.
Keir Starmer faces critical cabinet meeting amid growing calls to resign
December 31 drops to 73%6%
On May 12, 2026, Starmer faced a split cabinet and mounting pressure to resign after widespread Labour rebellion following poor election results. Despite this, he declared his intention to remain in office, but the event underscored the fragility of his leadership and contributed to market price volatility.
Jess Phillips resigns from Keir Starmer's government amid growing calls for PM's resignation
December 31 surges to 72%22%
Jess Phillips, safeguarding minister, resigned from the government, marking the second ministerial resignation in a day and signaling deepening instability within Starmer's administration, which pushed market prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Three junior ministers quit, urging Starmer to resign
June 30 drops to 28%13%
Three junior ministers (Phillips, Davies‑Jones, Fahnbulleh) tendered resignations, each publicly demanding Starmer step down. The news caused a short‑term dip in the “June 30” market from 41 % to 28 % and helped explain the swing of -23 points on 7 May → 9 May.
Starmer announces teen social‑media ban options
May 19 jumps to 12%10%
Starmer’s statement that a ban on teenage social‑media use was “not off the table” sparked public debate and drove Yes prices for the May 19 outcome sharply upward.
Over 95 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign or set departure timetable
December 31 dips to 73%1%
The number of Labour MPs calling for Starmer's resignation increased to over 95, with some cabinet ministers and aides resigning, marking a peak in internal party rebellion and market uncertainty about his tenure.
Labour MP Clive Lewis urges Starmer to step down
May 31 surges to 57%38%
On 12 May 2026, leading Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly called for Starmer’s resignation, citing the party’s disastrous local election results. The declaration sparked a brief market rally for the “May 31” outcome (price jumped to 57 % before falling back to 5 % by the end of the month).
Health Secretary Wes Streeting gears up to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership
May 31 plunges to 3%16%
Wes Streeting, Health Secretary, announced he was preparing to challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership on 12 May 2026. The move signalled a credible leadership coup, sending the market’s Yes probability for the “May 31” outcome sharply down from 19 % to 3 % as traders saw an imminent leadership battle rather than an outright removal.
Three ministerial resignations force Starmer onto the defensive
June 15 drops to 0%7%
Three junior ministers (Phillips, Davies‑Jones, Fahnbulleh) quit, each calling for Starmer to step down. This cascade of resignations drove the “June 15” probability from 7 % on 27 May to 0 % on 9 Jun – the market interpreting the resignations as a near‑certain collapse of Starmer’s tenure.
Starmer vows to continue after high-stakes cabinet meeting
Despite multiple resignations and calls for his resignation, Starmer declared his intention to remain in office after a critical cabinet meeting, temporarily stabilizing his position but not quelling dissent.
Close to 100 Labour MPs call for Starmer to resign or announce timetable
December 31 surges to 72%22%
A significant number of Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation or a clear timetable for his departure, increasing political pressure and market expectations of his exit.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing lost confidence in Starmer
December 31 jumps to 74%6%
Wes Streeting's resignation as Health Secretary marked a significant blow to Starmer's leadership, intensifying the internal party crisis and pushing market prices higher for Starmer's departure by the end of 2026.
Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign after poor local election results
October 31 surges to 74%23%
Following disastrous local election results, over 90 Labour MPs, including senior ministers, publicly called for Starmer to resign or set an exit timetable. This intensified the leadership crisis and was a critical factor in the market's rising probability of Starmer leaving office by October 31.
Four junior ministers resign and over 95 Labour MPs call for Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 drops to 74%14%
This mass resignation and public call for Starmer's departure marked the peak of the leadership crisis, severely undermining his position and causing a sharp drop in market confidence for his continuation beyond mid-2026.
Multiple junior ministers resign amid growing calls for Starmer to step down
December 31 rises to 73%4%
A wave of resignations from junior ministers and aides reflected the peak of internal rebellion, severely undermining Starmer's position and causing market prices to reflect a high chance of his departure by year-end.
Three ministerial resignations hit Keir Starmer's government, including Jess Phillips
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips and two others resigned, publicly calling for Starmer to step down. This wave of resignations intensified the leadership crisis, sharply reducing market confidence in Starmer's ability to remain PM through June and May deadlines.
Four ministers resign amid Labour leadership crisis
June 30 drops to 46%9%
Ministers including Miatta Fahnbulleh and Jess Phillips resigned from Starmer's cabinet, citing dissatisfaction with his leadership and calling for an orderly transition, escalating pressure on the Prime Minister.
Donald Trump criticizes Keir Starmer amid UK Labour leadership crisis
December 31 drops to 73%13%
US President Donald Trump publicly criticized Starmer's energy policy and leadership amid growing Labour turmoil, highlighting international attention and adding pressure on Starmer. This contributed to market declines in Starmer's tenure probabilities.
Starmer’s approval spikes after successful UK‑Japan cybersecurity pact
December 31 drops to 74%7%
A high‑profile agreement with Japan on cybersecurity and critical minerals was portrayed as a diplomatic win, temporarily easing political pressure on Starmer and causing a brief price dip before the market resumed its upward trend.
Deputy PM Angela Rayner calls for Starmer to set resignation timetable
July 31 drops to 37%13%
At a cabinet meeting the day after the May 11 speech, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner publicly urged Starmer to set a timetable for his departure. The “July 31” market price, which had been steady at 50 % early May, slid sharply to 37 % YES by May 27 as traders priced in a possible mid‑year leadership vote.
Keir Starmer refuses to resign, pledges to continue despite mounting pressure
Starmer's defiant stance at a critical cabinet meeting temporarily stabilized his position but did not quell the rebellion, leading to continued market uncertainty and volatility in shorter-term outcomes.
Over 90 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 72%7%
After poor election performances and internal dissent, more than 90 Labour MPs demanded Starmer's resignation, with several ministers and aides resigning, sharply increasing market expectations of his departure.
Trump criticizes Starmer amid UK Labour leadership crisis
May 31 drops to 27%8%
US President Donald Trump publicly criticized Keir Starmer's energy policy, adding international scrutiny to the Labour leader during a period of internal party turmoil.
Four junior ministers quit, intensifying pressure on Starmer to resign
June 15 plunges to 6%44%
Four junior ministers – including Home Office minister Jess Phillips – resigned, joining the growing list of MPs demanding Starmer step down. The cascade of resignations triggered a sharp fall in the "June 15" probability, which slid from 50 % to 6 % within a day.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood joins calls for Starmer to resign
July 31 drops to 41%9%
Home Secretary Mahmood publicly called for Starmer’s resignation, joining a cascade of ministerial exits. The news coincided with the market’s steepest drop in “July 31” odds, which slid from 50 % to 41 % on May 31, reflecting heightened exit risk.
Multiple ministerial resignations and over 70 Labour MPs call for Starmer's resignation
Following devastating local election results, several junior ministers and aides resigned, and a large number of Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer step down, sharply increasing market odds for his exit by mid-2026.
Three back-to-back ministerial resignations hit Starmer amid leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 73%23%
On May 12, 2026, ministers Jess Phillips, Alex Davies-Jones, and Miatta Fahnbulleh resigned, citing dissatisfaction with Starmer's leadership and government performance. This further destabilized Starmer's position and increased market expectations of his departure by year-end.
Labour MPs demand exit plan after local election setback
June 30 plunges to 16%19%
Live India reported that dozens of Labour MPs formally demanded a timetable for Starmer’s departure after a crushing set of local‑election defeats. The mounting internal pressure coincided with a steep fall in the “June 30” price, reflecting growing belief that Starmer could be out before summer.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament, sparking party row
December 31 surges to 88%17%
Labour’s National Executive Committee, including Starmer, blocked popular Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election, fueling internal party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges.
Starmer cabinet meeting shows leadership under threat but he refuses to resign
December 31 surges to 89%22%
Starmer's refusal to resign despite growing dissent and resignations from junior ministers highlighted the deepening crisis, causing market volatility and a spike in perceived likelihood of his departure by year-end.
Four junior ministers quit, MP rebellion intensifies
June 30 plunges to 14%57%
Four junior ministers resigned and dozens of MPs renewed calls for Starmer’s removal. The market’s Yes‑probability fell sharply, dropping from 71 % to 14 % for the “June 30” outcome over the following week, reflecting belief that a resignation was now imminent and could occur before the end of June.
Three junior ministers resign, intensifying pressure on Starmer
June 30 plunges to 26%22%
Three junior ministers quit within hours, citing loss of confidence in Starmer. The wave of resignations pushed the June 30 market down sharply – from roughly 48 % on 5 May to 26 % on 26 May (priceBefore = 48, priceAfter = 26).
Over 80 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 69%9%
By May 2026, more than 80 Labour MPs had publicly demanded Starmer's resignation or a timetable for his departure, reflecting a deepening leadership crisis and widespread loss of confidence within his party, which was mirrored by a sharp decline in market prices for his staying beyond mid-2026.
Four junior ministers resign amid growing Labour rebellion against Starmer
December 31 rises to 70%2%
The resignations of junior ministers including Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting amid widespread calls from Labour MPs for Starmer to step down marked a peak in the leadership crisis, pushing market prices for his exit to near certainty by year-end.
Keir Starmer vows to continue as PM despite mounting resignations and calls to quit
December 31 jumps to 69%6%
Starmer held a high-stakes cabinet meeting and declared his intention to remain in office, attempting to stabilize his leadership amid growing dissent, which temporarily bolstered market confidence in his tenure.
Three back‑to‑back ministerial resignations hit Starmer’s government
May 31 plunges to 0%19%
GB News reported three successive ministerial resignations – including Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips – on 12 May. The wave of departures intensified market pessimism, pushing the “Starmer out by May 31” price to 0 % and the “June 15” price to 2 % within a day.
Starmer tells cabinet he will remain prime minister despite mounting resignations
July 31 drops to 44%6%
Starmer publicly defied the rebellion in a televised cabinet meeting, pledging to stay in office. The market’s “July 31” outcome briefly fell from 50 % to the low‑40 % range as traders weighed the risk of an imminent leadership contest.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing lost confidence in Starmer
May 31 plunges to 0%19%
Wes Streeting's resignation as Health Secretary was a significant blow to Starmer, publicly stating he had lost confidence in the Prime Minister's leadership, further undermining Starmer's position and fueling market expectations of his imminent departure.
Growing Labour rebellion with over 90 MPs demanding Starmer's resignation
December 31 jumps to 69%8%
By mid-May 2026, internal party rebellion peaked with numerous MPs and ministers publicly calling for Starmer to step down, reflecting a collapse in his authority and driving market prices to near certainty of his exit by year-end.
Starmer defies calls to resign at critical cabinet meeting
December 31 jumps to 72%6%
Despite mounting resignations and calls for his departure, Starmer told his cabinet he would remain in office, arguing the party's fundamentals were sound. This defiance caused some market recovery in longer-term exit probabilities.
Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 84%13%
Over 95 Labour MPs demanded Starmer's resignation or a departure timetable, with prominent cabinet members and aides resigning, intensifying the political turmoil and pushing market prices for Starmer's exit higher.
Four junior ministers resign amid growing calls for Starmer to quit
June 15 dips to 3%4%
On May 12, 2026, four junior ministers including Jess Phillips resigned, citing lack of leadership, intensifying pressure on Starmer and causing significant market price drops for near-term exit outcomes.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
May 31 plunges to 25%29%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer's judgment, contributing to market volatility and a spike in the probability of Starmer leaving by May 31.
UK Starmer MPs quit, analysts say he’s unlikely to last the year
A CNBC report highlighted that over 70 Labour MPs were calling for Starmer’s resignation after the local‑election loss, pushing the Yes‑price for the June 15 outcome down to zero as the market priced in an imminent leadership change.
Starmer faces critical cabinet meeting amid calls to quit
December 31 dips to 69%4%
Starmer prepared to meet his cabinet amid escalating internal rebellion and public calls for his resignation, highlighting the precariousness of his position as Prime Minister.
Three ministerial resignations deepen Keir Starmer's leadership crisis
May 31 plunges to 1%18%
Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips, Victims Minister Alex Davies-Jones, and Communities Minister Miatta Fahnbulleh resigned, criticizing Starmer's leadership and increasing pressure on him to step down, which contributed to a sharp drop in market confidence for Starmer's departure by May 31 and June 15.
Multiple Labour ministers and aides resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 82%16%
Following disastrous local elections and growing backbench rebellion, several ministers including Wes Streeting resigned, signaling a critical loss of support for Starmer and pushing market prices higher for his exit by year-end.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping to deepen UK-China ties amid global turbulence
Starmer's visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping aimed to strengthen UK-China relations and secure economic benefits. While this diplomatic effort was significant, it had limited impact on the market's assessment of Starmer's tenure, with only minor price fluctuations.
Growing Labour MP revolt with calls for Starmer to resign
December 31 surges to 71%22%
By mid-May 2026, over 70 Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to quit, reflecting deep party divisions and escalating pressure on his premiership, which was mirrored by market price increases for his departure.
Starmer meets Chinese President Xi in Beijing
December 31 surges to 83%17%
Starmer’s high‑profile diplomatic trip to China was intended to boost economic prospects, temporarily lifting optimism for the longer‑term dates but not enough to reverse the overall downward trend.
Three ministerial resignations hit Keir Starmer's government amid leadership crisis
December 31 drops to 70%5%
Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips, Victims Minister Alex Davies-Jones, and Communities Minister Miatta Fahnbulleh resigned, criticizing Starmer's leadership and escalating pressure on his premiership.
Starmer faces split cabinet amid growing calls to resign
December 31 jumps to 74%5%
On May 12, 2026, Starmer confronted a divided cabinet with multiple ministerial resignations and widespread calls for his resignation, yet he refused to step down. This event reflected deep party fractures and influenced market prices, especially for the December 31 exit outcome.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing lost confidence in Starmer
June 15 plunges to 8%42%
Wes Streeting's resignation as health secretary was a critical blow to Starmer's leadership, signaling deep cabinet fractures and escalating calls for his resignation, sharply impacting market prices for near-term departure outcomes.
Wes Streeting Resigns as Health Secretary Amid Growing Cabinet Mutiny
June 30 surges to 56%36%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting and several junior ministers resigned, stating they had lost confidence in Starmer's leadership following the local election disaster.
Starmer defies calls to resign, vows to fight next general election
June 30 plunges to 30%37%
Despite mounting pressure and resignations, Starmer publicly refused to set a resignation timetable, signaling his intent to continue, which caused mixed market reactions across outcomes.
Over 95 Labour MPs call for Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 71%10%
By mid-May 2026, over 95 Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable following poor election results and internal party turmoil. This widespread dissent, combined with multiple ministerial resignations, intensified market expectations of Starmer's exit by the end of 2025 and into 2026.
Multiple junior ministers resign amid leadership crisis
June 15 plunges to 6%44%
Following Streeting's resignation, several junior ministers including Jess Phillips resigned, intensifying the leadership crisis and increasing market expectations of Starmer's imminent departure.
Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer amid Labour turmoil
June 30 jumps to 46%6%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting announced his intention to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership, securing backing from 81 MPs to trigger a leadership contest. This development heightened market expectations for Starmer's removal by June 30, 2026.
Over 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer's resignation after election losses
June 30 surges to 71%31%
Following the poor election results, at least 70 Labour MPs called for Starmer to resign or set a timetable for his departure, increasing market speculation about his imminent exit and leadership instability.
Labour chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson scandal
December 31 surges to 86%37%
The resignation of a key political ally and architect of Starmer's election campaign further weakened the Prime Minister's position and authority.
Labour blocks Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's bid for Parliament seat
Labour's National Executive Committee, including Starmer, blocked Burnham's candidacy, seen as a potential leadership challenger, reflecting internal party tensions and affecting market confidence in Starmer's stability, impacting May 19 and May 31 outcomes.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping, calls for deeper UK-China ties amid global turbulence
December 31 rises to 70%2%
Starmer's diplomatic efforts to strengthen UK-China relations aimed to boost economic prospects and stabilize his leadership image, contributing to a rise in the December 31 market outcome despite domestic challenges.
Keir Starmer delivers defiant speech amid Labour election losses and leadership calls
December 31 surges to 72%21%
Following disastrous local election results and multiple ministerial resignations, Starmer addressed the nation insisting he would not resign, temporarily stabilizing his position but failing to quell internal party rebellion, causing market uncertainty especially for near-term departure dates.
Labour MPs and ministers publicly call for Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 73%25%
Over 95 Labour MPs, including cabinet ministers and junior ministers, demanded Starmer's resignation following poor election results and internal party fractures, signaling a critical threat to his premiership.
Keir Starmer delivers speech to ward off Labour leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 66%13%
Following disastrous local election results and mounting calls for his resignation, Starmer addressed the nation to rally support and prevent a leadership contest, temporarily stabilizing his position.
Starmer apologizes for Mandelson appointment amid mounting pressure
December 31 rises to 73%4%
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson as ambassador despite his Epstein ties, acknowledging the damage to trust and increasing calls for his resignation, which influenced market prices for later outcomes.
Starmer announces plan to ban teen social‑media use
May 31 rises to 23%4%
Starmer’s proposal to consider an Australia‑style ban on teenage social‑media access was viewed as a bold policy move, nudging the May‑31 price up from 19% to 23% as the market saw a potential distraction from leadership pressures.
Labour suffers major losses in local elections, prompting calls for Starmer's resignation
June 30 surges to 55%23%
Labour lost control of multiple councils in May 2026 local elections, leading to over 40 MPs publicly calling for Starmer to resign, significantly boosting market odds for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Starmer vows to fight next election, refuses to set resignation timetable
December 31 surges to 85%19%
After the disastrous local‑election results, Starmer delivered a televised speech pledging to stay on and fight the next general election. The declaration halted the market’s slide and lifted the December 31 price from 66 % (5 May) to 85 % (18 May).
Keir Starmer vows to fight on after historic local election losses
December 31 jumps to 65%9%
Following devastating local election defeats where Labour lost 1,500 councillors, Starmer delivered a speech refusing to resign and pledging to rebuild the party. Despite his defiance, the market reacted with volatility reflecting ongoing doubts about his leadership stability.
Keir Starmer considers resignation amid Labour Party crisis
June 30 surges to 64%36%
Reports emerged that Starmer was considering resignation amid a political crisis within Labour, exacerbated by poor election results and cabinet resignations, leading to a surge in market pricing for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Labour MPs threaten leadership challenge against Keir Starmer
June 30 jumps to 33%7%
Following election losses, Labour MPs including Catherine West openly called for Starmer's resignation and threatened a leadership challenge if no action was taken by May 11. This increased market expectations of Starmer's removal by June 30.
Over 70 Labour MPs, including two senior ministers, call for Starmer’s resignation
December 31 surges to 88%19%
More than 70 Labour MPs, including senior cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood, publicly called for Starmer to resign after his leadership speech failed to restore confidence. The unprecedented rebellion drove the market up sharply for the "December 31" outcome as traders priced in a heightened risk of a resignation before year‑end.
Keir Starmer delivers speech to ward off Labour leadership contest after local election losses
June 30 surges to 55%23%
Following significant Labour losses in local elections, Starmer addressed the nation to rally support and prevent a leadership challenge. Despite this, calls for his resignation increased, pushing market prices higher for his exit by June 30, 2026.
Keir Starmer delivers make-or-break speech amid mounting resignation calls
December 31 surges to 86%19%
Following disastrous local election results, Starmer addressed the nation to quell demands for his resignation. Despite the speech, internal party dissent persisted, causing market fluctuations and uncertainty about his leadership duration.
Polling shows Labour support at historic lows and Starmer's approval rating worst since 1977
December 31 surges to 79%29%
Polling data revealed Labour trailing and Starmer's personal approval at record lows, increasing market odds of his eventual resignation by year-end.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, intensifying leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 74%7%
Labour's poor results in the 2026 local elections led to increased calls for Starmer's resignation from MPs and ministers, reflected in a sharp rise in the market price for a December 31 resignation and a drop for earlier dates.
Keir Starmer delivers key speech to ward off Labour leadership challenge
December 31 rises to 68%2%
Following disastrous local election results, Starmer addressed the nation to rally support and prevent a leadership contest. Despite his efforts, internal party dissent continued, and calls for his resignation grew, impacting market perceptions of his tenure.
More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign after poor local election results
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Following disappointing local election outcomes, over 70 Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation, reflecting deep party division and escalating pressure on his leadership, which caused significant market volatility and a sharp increase in the December 31 outcome probability.
Over 70 Labour MPs and senior ministers call for Starmer's resignation after election losses
Following disastrous local election results, numerous Labour MPs and cabinet members publicly demanded Starmer resign or set a departure timetable, marking a leadership crisis.
Labour suffers disastrous local elections, calls for Starmer to resign surge
December 31 jumps to 78%9%
Following poor election results, over 90 Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer's resignation, intensifying the leadership crisis and causing sharp market price swings, especially for short-term outcomes.
Multiple junior ministers resign amid growing calls for Starmer to quit
May 31 surges to 56%37%
Several junior ministers resigned in protest against Starmer's leadership, escalating internal party rebellion and sharply increasing market expectations of his departure by May 31, 2026.
MP Catherine West threatens leadership challenge unless Starmer sets exit timetable
July 31 drops to 39%11%
MP Catherine West threatened to trigger a formal leadership challenge unless Starmer set a timetable for his exit. The announcement added pressure on the “July 31” contract, which fell from 50 % to 39 % over the next two weeks as traders priced in a higher chance of a near‑term ouster.
UK gilt yields rise as bond market nerves over Starmer leadership challenge
July 31 drops to 39%11%
Gilt yields jumped as bond markets reacted to the leadership turmoil, raising borrowing costs. The spike reinforced traders’ belief that a leadership change could bring fiscal uncertainty, pushing the “July 31” line down further.
Over 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign after failed leadership speech
December 31 surges to 88%20%
Following a speech intended to shore up support, a large number of Labour MPs openly demanded Starmer's resignation, signaling a deep party rebellion and escalating the leadership crisis, causing market prices for his exit to spike.
Over 70 Labour MPs call for Starmer's resignation after speech fails to quell rebellion
December 31 rises to 69%4%
Following a speech by Starmer, more than 70 Labour MPs publicly demanded his resignation or a timetable for departure, highlighting the deep divisions and leadership crisis within the party.
Over 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign after failed leadership speech
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
After a speech intended to shore up his leadership, more than 70 Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation, reflecting a significant loss of party support and escalating the leadership crisis. This event contributed to a sharp decline in the May 31 outcome price.
Starmer’s leadership speech fails to quell rebellion – MPs threaten leadership challenge
June 30 surges to 64%36%
Starmer delivered a televised leadership speech after Labour’s crushing May 7 local‑election losses. In the same day senior MPs, including Catherine West, publicly warned they would trigger a leadership challenge if he did not step down by May 11. The market’s price for the “June 30” outcome jumped from 28 % to 64 % YES within 24 hours, reflecting heightened expectations of a resignation before the end of June.
Starmer vows to stay on after local election defeats
December 31 surges to 87%17%
Following disastrous local‑election results, Starmer delivered a televised speech in London insisting he will stay in office. The address temporarily halted the leadership revolt, and the market’s Yes‑probability surged from 70 % to 79 % on 11 May, moving the most likely out‑date out to the latest charted option (December 31).
Keir Starmer faces growing cabinet resignations and calls for resignation
December 31 drops to 44%6%
Following the local election defeats, multiple junior ministers and parliamentary private secretaries resigned, with at least 70 Labour MPs publicly calling for Starmer to step down, reflecting deep party divisions and escalating the leadership crisis.
Revelations of Mandelson's failed security vetting and police investigation intensify
May 31 surges to 54%35%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming ambassador, leading to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant and a criminal investigation. This scandal severely undermined Starmer's leadership and caused a sharp market reaction, especially for the May 31 outcome.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
December 31 surges to 83%17%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying pressure on Starmer and causing a significant market price spike for the December 31 outcome.
Keir Starmer delivers leadership speech refusing to resign after election losses
December 31 surges to 75%27%
Starmer addressed the party, acknowledging poor election results but vowed to remain as Prime Minister and reset Labour's direction, aiming to counter internal dissent and external political rivals.
Labour MPs begin collecting signatures demanding Starmer set resignation timetable
June 30 plunges to 17%23%
Following poor election results, Labour MPs including Catherine West pushed for Starmer to commit to stepping down by September, signaling an imminent leadership challenge and increasing market speculation on Starmer's departure.
Mass cabinet resignations and calls for Starmer’s exit after local election defeat
A wave of cabinet resignations and public calls for Starmer’s resignation were reported after the disastrous local election results, pushing market participants to believe a leadership crisis was imminent, which drove the Yes‑price up sharply in May‑June 2026.
Six parliamentary private secretaries resign amid calls for Keir Starmer to step down
October 31 surges to 74%23%
On May 11, 2026, six PPSs resigned, reflecting deep divisions within Labour and escalating pressure on Starmer to resign. This event marked a significant escalation in the leadership crisis, contributing to market moves indicating increased likelihood of Starmer's departure by October 31.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament, sparking internal party conflict
June 30 jumps to 30%7%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election fueled speculation of internal party strife and potential leadership challenges to Starmer, affecting market sentiment negatively for the June 30 outcome.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
May 31 jumps to 29%10%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite his Epstein ties. This resignation highlighted internal turmoil and increased market concerns about Starmer's leadership stability, reflected in rising probabilities for his departure by May 31, 2026.
Starmer declares government a '10-year project' amid resignation calls
December 31 rises to 65%3%
Facing mounting pressure to quit, Starmer declared his government a long-term project and vowed to fight on, signaling his intent to resist immediate resignation despite internal dissent.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 surges to 86%20%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the controversial appointment of Mandelson, intensifying the political storm and raising doubts about Starmer’s leadership.
Starmer announces release of Mandelson appointment files
The government committed to publishing documents about Mandelson’s ambassadorship, a move seen as an attempt to contain the scandal but which underscored the depth of the issue, pushing odds lower.
Labour MP Catherine West calls for leadership contest against Starmer after local election losses
December 31 jumps to 72%7%
Following disastrous local election results, MP Catherine West announced plans to trigger a leadership contest if no cabinet minister challenges Starmer, signaling deep party unrest and increasing exit odds.
Labour suffers worst‑ever local‑election loss, Reform UK wins 1,400 seats
December 31 drops to 66%7%
The disastrous local elections – Labour lost more than 1,300 councillors and control of dozens of councils – triggered a wave of calls for Starmer’s resignation. The market’s “December 31” odds fell sharply from 73 % on 8 May to 66 % on 9 May, while the “June 30” line plunged from 44 % to 27 % as participants priced an imminent leadership crisis.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, Starmer refuses to resign
Labour's poor performance in local elections led to increased pressure on Starmer, but he publicly stated he would not resign, causing market uncertainty and some price declines for near-term resignation outcomes.
Labour Suffers Crushing Defeats in Local Elections
June 30 plunges to 20%22%
The ruling Labour Party lost hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and the Greens, triggering an immediate internal rebellion against Starmer's leadership.
Starmer plans anti‑antisemitism summit to restore Labour’s credibility
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
After the May 7 local‑election setbacks, Starmer announced a summit on antisemitism, attempting to regain voter confidence. The announcement coincided with a modest rise in the “December 31” price from 52 % to 62 % YES, indicating traders viewed the move as a temporary boost to Starmer’s standing.
Labour suffers devastating local election losses, sparking calls for Starmer's resignation
December 31 surges to 72%22%
Labour's heavy losses in local elections led to a surge in public and party calls for Starmer to resign, triggering a sharp increase in market pricing for his departure by year-end and intensifying leadership crisis fears.
Labour suffers historic defeat in 2026 local elections
October 31 surges to 71%20%
The 2026 local elections delivered a historic loss for Labour, with the party surrendering hundreds of council seats. The result spurred a sharp rise in the “October 31” market from 51 % to 71 % within two days as traders priced in an imminent resignation.
Labour suffers catastrophic local election losses, triggering resignations and calls for Starmer's exit
December 31 surges to 69%19%
Labour lost 1,500 councillors in England and power in Wales and Scotland in May 2026 local elections, sparking a wave of resignations including Health Secretary Wes Streeting and junior ministers Jess Phillips and Miatta Fahnbulleh. Over 90 Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable, sharply increasing market prices for Starmer's exit by various dates.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, triggering leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 74%24%
Labour lost 1,500 councillors and control in Wales, with poor results in Scotland, intensifying calls from Labour MPs and ministers for Starmer to resign or announce an exit plan, sharply increasing market odds of his departure.
Labour suffers disastrous local election losses, triggering mass resignations and calls for Starmer to quit
December 31 jumps to 71%10%
Labour lost 1,500 councillors and control in Wales and Scotland, leading to resignations of ministers including Wes Streeting and Jess Phillips, and over 90 MPs publicly demanding Starmer's resignation, sharply increasing market odds of his departure by year-end.
Starmer refuses to resign after Labour's local election defeats
December 31 jumps to 62%12%
Despite Labour's crushing losses in local elections and calls from MPs for his resignation, Starmer vowed to remain in office and fight on, though his political standing weakened significantly.
Starmer proposes teenage social‑media ban, sparking public backlash
December 31 plunges to 49%35%
The Prime Minister’s suggestion to consider an Australia‑style ban on social‑media for under‑16s triggered criticism and concerns over civil liberties, causing a sharp drop in confidence in his leadership.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections triggering leadership crisis
June 15 plunges to 7%43%
Labour's poor performance in the May 2026 local elections led to a surge in calls for Starmer's resignation from over 70 Labour MPs and several ministers, sparking a major leadership crisis and causing sharp market declines in short-term exit probabilities.
Labour suffers crushing local‑election defeats, MPs call for Starmer’s resignation
June 15 plunges to 2%48%
Labour’s disastrous local‑election results triggered a wave of resignations and calls for Starmer’s ouster. The market’s “June 30” and “June 15” outcomes fell sharply, with the latter hitting a historic low of 2 % on May 31, reflecting near‑certain removal in investors’ view.
Labour suffers crushing losses in local elections, sparking mass calls for Starmer's resignation
December 31 jumps to 73%10%
Labour's poor results in the 2026 local elections led to over 95 Labour MPs publicly calling for Starmer to resign, with several ministers and aides resigning, marking a critical point in the leadership crisis and sharply increasing market odds of his departure.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat, sparking party row
June 30 rises to 41%3%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary by-election fueled internal Labour Party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges to Starmer, influencing market uncertainty around his tenure.
Potential leadership challenge looms after local elections
December 31 rises to 62%2%
Following poor local election results, speculation about a leadership challenge against Starmer increased, affecting market expectations for his departure timing, particularly for the December 31 outcome.
Labour suffers crushing local election losses, sparking leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 74%15%
Labour's poor performance in local elections led to a surge in calls for Starmer's resignation, with over 95 MPs demanding his departure, causing sharp market reactions especially for near-term exit dates.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, sparking leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 68%15%
Labour's poor performance in May 2026 local elections triggered a surge in calls for Starmer's resignation, with over 95 MPs demanding his departure, causing sharp market moves reflecting increased likelihood of exit by year-end.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, Reform UK gains ground
May 15 plunges to 0%25%
The poor performance of Labour in the May 7 local elections, with significant gains by Reform UK, led to a sharp drop in market confidence for Starmer's short-term survival, especially for May 15 and May 19 outcomes.
Labour suffers catastrophic loss in 2026 local elections
December 31 jumps to 65%12%
The 2026 local elections produced the worst ever Labour performance, with the party losing more than 1,400 council seats and being ousted from power in Wales. The shock results triggered a wave of internal criticism and a sharp rise in market odds that Starmer would be out by the end of the year, pushing the “December 31” line up from 53 % to 65 % in the week after the vote.
Labour suffers catastrophic local election losses, triggering mass resignations and calls for Starmer's exit
December 31 surges to 79%39%
The May 7, 2026 local elections were disastrous for Labour, losing 1,500 councillors and control in Wales and Scotland. This led to multiple ministerial resignations including Wes Streeting and Jess Phillips, and over 90 Labour MPs publicly demanding Starmer resign or set an exit timetable, sharply increasing market odds of his departure.
Labour suffers big losses in local elections, Starmer refuses to quit
June 30 surges to 69%29%
Labour's poor performance in the May 7 local and regional elections, with significant losses and gains by Reform UK, intensified pressure on Starmer's leadership. Despite calls for resignation from within his party, Starmer insisted he would not step down, causing a moderate increase in the market probability for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Labour suffers disastrous local election losses, triggering ministerial resignations
December 31 surges to 71%22%
Labour lost 1,500 councillors and control in Wales and Scotland, prompting multiple junior minister resignations and calls from around 90 Labour MPs for Starmer to resign, sharply increasing market expectations of his departure.
Labour suffers disastrous local election losses, triggering leadership crisis
Labour lost 1,500 councillors in England and was ousted in Wales and Scotland, sparking calls from around 90 Labour MPs for Keir Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable. This electoral setback intensified pressure on Starmer and led to multiple ministerial resignations, significantly impacting market expectations for his removal.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham's bid for Parliament, sparking internal party row
May 19 drops to 6%8%
The decision to block a popular rival's parliamentary bid fueled speculation of internal party conflict and leadership challenges to Starmer, reflecting growing instability within Labour ahead of local elections.
Starmer defends his position after election setbacks
Starmer publicly pledged to stay on despite the election defeats, but the statement failed to restore market confidence, contributing to a further price drop.
Local elections deliver losses for Labour, Reform UK gains
June 30 plunges to 18%23%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, seen as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership, increasing speculation about a leadership challenge and contributing to market declines in the probability of Starmer staying through May and June.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, sparking leadership crisis
May 31 plunges to 0%19%
Labour's poor performance in May 2026 local elections intensified internal party dissent, with over 95 MPs publicly calling for Starmer to resign and several ministers quitting, sharply reducing market confidence in his staying power beyond mid-2026.
Labour suffers big losses in local elections, Reform UK gains
May 31 drops to 6%13%
Labour's poor performance in local and regional elections was seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, leading to increased speculation about his future and a sharp drop in market prices for the May 31 outcome.
Labour suffers historic losses in 2026 local elections, triggering mass resignations
May 31 plunges to 0%19%
Labour's catastrophic results in the 2026 local elections led to a leadership crisis with over 95 MPs calling for Starmer's resignation and multiple ministerial resignations, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting. This event sharply increased market odds for Starmer's departure by the end of May 2026.
Labour suffers devastating local election losses, sparking calls for Starmer's resignation
December 31 surges to 70%20%
Labour's poor performance in local elections intensified pressure on Starmer, leading to multiple ministerial resignations and a surge in calls from MPs for his departure, sharply increasing market odds for his exit by year-end.
Labour suffers losses in local and regional elections, raising leadership doubts
May 31 drops to 5%14%
Labour’s poor performance in May elections, attributed to Starmer’s missteps and the Mandelson scandal, fueled speculation about a leadership challenge, causing a decline in the May 31 outcome price and pressure on Starmer’s tenure.
Local elections deliver losses for Labour and wins for Reform UK
May 31 plunges to 4%15%
Labour suffered major losses in local and regional elections, with Starmer stating he would not resign despite the poor results. This triggered renewed discussion about potential leadership challenges.
Labour suffers historic losses in UK local elections
December 31 plunges to 48%19%
Labour lost 1,500 councillors in England, was ousted from power in Wales, and had its worst-ever result in the Scottish Parliament election, triggering widespread criticism of Starmer's leadership and calls for his resignation.
Labour Party suffers major losses in local and regional elections
June 30 drops to 39%6%
The poor performance in local elections was widely interpreted as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, fueling speculation about his potential resignation.
Labour suffers heavy losses in 2026 UK local elections
June 30 drops to 40%10%
Labour lost control of several councils and many seats, while Reform UK made gains. This poor performance sparked internal criticism and raised questions about Starmer's leadership, causing a decrease in short-term market optimism about his tenure.
Starmer meets with Japanese leaders on cybersecurity and critical minerals
During a stop in Tokyo, Starmer secured a cooperation deal with Japan on cybersecurity and critical minerals, signalling a proactive foreign‑policy agenda that briefly lifted confidence in his tenure.
Local and regional elections deliver heavy losses for Labour
The May 5 local elections saw Labour lose more than half the seats it defended, a blow interpreted as a de‑facto referendum on Starmer’s leadership, further depressing market confidence.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
Morgan McSweeney quit as Starmer’s chief of staff after the fallout from Peter Mandelson’s appointment as U.S. ambassador, intensifying scrutiny of Starmer’s judgment and pushing market odds lower.
Starmer leads UK delegation to China to forge strategic partnership
December 31 surges to 84%18%
Starmer’s high‑profile visit to Beijing, aimed at deepening trade and diplomatic ties, was interpreted as a bold foreign‑policy gamble that lifted market expectations of his staying in office through year‑end.
Labour MP Jonathan Brash calls for Starmer’s resignation on GB News
June 30 rises to 42%1%
A minor dip in the "June 30" probability on April 30 coincided with a report that a Labour MP called for Starmer’s resignation on GB News, reinforcing market concerns about early leadership turmoil.
Wes Streeting announces leadership challenge against Keir Starmer
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting's official challenge to Starmer's leadership highlighted internal party tensions and increased market expectations for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Starmer faces accusations of misleading Parliament over Mandelson vetting
December 31 rises to 69%2%
Starmer was accused of misleading Parliament about Mandelson’s security clearance, further damaging his credibility and increasing market expectations of his potential departure by year-end.
Labour blocks Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat amid leadership tensions
December 31 rises to 66%1%
The Labour Party, including Starmer, blocked popular mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary by-election, fueling speculation about internal party rivalries and leadership challenges, impacting market sentiment for Starmer’s tenure through December 31.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 rises to 69%3%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political crisis and fueling speculation about Starmer’s vulnerability, impacting market prices.
Starmer accused of breaching ministerial code over undisclosed meeting with Mandelson client
December 31 jumps to 69%7%
On April 26, 2026, Starmer faced allegations of violating the ministerial code for failing to disclose a visit to Palantir's Washington office with Mandelson. This controversy added to the mounting pressure on his leadership and influenced market sentiment toward his potential exit by December 31, 2025.
Allegations that Starmer broke ministerial code over undisclosed Palantir visit
December 31 rises to 63%1%
Reports emerged that Starmer failed to disclose a visit to Palantir's Washington office with Mandelson, raising questions about his transparency and ethics, contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure lasting through 2026.
Starmer faces allegations of ministerial code breach over undisclosed Palantir visit
Starmer was accused of breaking the ministerial code by failing to disclose a visit to Palantir's Washington office with Mandelson, further damaging his credibility and contributing to market confidence in his eventual departure by December 31.
Keir Starmer accused of breaching ministerial code over undisclosed Palantir visit
December 31 dips to 52%4%
Starmer faced allegations of violating the ministerial code after failing to disclose a visit to Palantir's Washington office, linked to Peter Mandelson. This scandal further undermined his credibility and leadership, impacting market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer Accused of Violating Ministerial Code Over Secret Palantir Meeting
December 31 surges to 71%19%
Reports surfaced that Starmer failed to declare a February 2025 visit to technology firm Palantir alongside Peter Mandelson, breaching transparency rules.
Keir Starmer 'Broke Ministerial Code' After Palantir Meeting
December 31 rises to 74%4%
Starmer was accused of failing to disclose a February 2025 visit to Palantir's Washington offices with Mandelson, a breach generally considered grounds for resignation. This added another layer of scandal to his premiership.
Starmer announces UK‑Norway joint naval patrols to protect undersea cables
The AP story on joint UK‑Norway naval operations was viewed as a strong security move, lifting the December‑31 contract again after a brief dip in April.
Starmer accused of breaking ministerial code over undisclosed visit with Mandelson client
December 31 rises to 65%2%
Starmer faced allegations of violating the ministerial code after failing to disclose a visit to Palantir's Washington office with Peter Mandelson, further damaging his credibility and increasing political pressure.
UK and Norway launch joint naval patrols to protect undersea cables
December 31 jumps to 68%7%
The defence cooperation was interpreted as a strong security move by Starmer, nudging the December‑31 outcome upward as confidence in his leadership rose.
UK and Norway sign joint naval patrol agreement
December 31 rises to 69%1%
The defense pact was portrayed as a strong foreign‑policy win for Starmer, briefly lifting the December‑31 price from 68% to 69% as market sentiment improved.
Local elections deliver losses for Labour, raising Starmer’s leadership doubts
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, seen as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership. Despite calls for resignation, Starmer refused to quit, causing market fluctuations reflecting uncertainty about his future.
UK and Norway agree joint naval patrols amid rising Russian threats
Starmer’s government announced joint naval patrols with Norway to protect undersea cables and counter Russian submarines, demonstrating leadership on national security but with limited direct impact on Starmer’s political survival market.
UK and Norway agree joint naval patrols amid rising Russian threats
December 31 jumps to 70%14%
Starmer’s government announced joint naval patrols with Norway to protect undersea cables and counter Russian submarines, demonstrating leadership on national security and slightly bolstering market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping to deepen UK-China ties amid global turbulence
December 31 surges to 67%15%
Starmer’s visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping aimed to improve diplomatic and economic relations, signaling a strategic partnership. While positive for Starmer’s international standing, it had limited impact on his domestic leadership market.
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies on Mandelson vetting pressure
Robbins testified that Downing Street pressured him to clear Mandelson despite security concerns, undermining Starmer's defense and increasing political pressure.
Senior Labour MPs urge Starmer to set exit timetable after local election losses
December 31 jumps to 68%6%
Following the 2026 local election losses, senior Labour MPs began urging Starmer to set a timeline for his departure. This early pressure contributed to the initial rise in the "December 31" probability in late April.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping in Beijing, pledges deeper UK‑China partnership
The same visit also raised the May‑19 outcome modestly as the market viewed the foreign‑policy success as a sign of Starmer’s continued authority.
Calls for Starmer to resign intensify after local election losses
June 30 jumps to 55%13%
Following heavy losses in local elections, over 70 Labour MPs and several ministers publicly called for Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable, signaling a deepening leadership crisis within the party.
Keir Starmer faces calls to resign after Labour's local election losses
June 30 surges to 55%23%
Following substantial losses in early May 2026 local elections, over 40 Labour MPs and some cabinet members publicly called for Starmer's resignation or a clear leadership timetable, increasing market expectations for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Starmer admits mistake in appointing Mandelson after vetting warning
December 31 jumps to 75%6%
Starmer publicly admitted on 20 Apr 2026 that he should not have appointed Mandelson as ambassador after learning the security‑vetting agency had warned against it. The admission reignited calls for his resignation and pushed the “December 31” Yes probability back up to the high‑70s.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping in Beijing, pledges deeper UK‑China partnership
June 30 rises to 45%3%
The high‑profile diplomatic trip was seen as a boost to Starmer’s economic agenda, lifting the June‑30 and December‑31 outcomes as investors perceived reduced political risk.
Starmer faces mounting calls to resign after admitting Mandelson lied during vetting
December 31 jumps to 67%7%
Starmer publicly admitted Mandelson lied during vetting and expressed regret over the appointment, leading to intensified pressure and increased market odds for Starmer's exit by December 31, 2025.
Betting markets price Keir Starmer as odds-on to resign in 2026
Betting markets showed strong interest in Starmer's resignation, with odds implying an 87% chance he would leave office before the next general election, reflecting growing expectations of his departure.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch calls for Starmer’s resignation over Mandelson scandal
December 31 jumps to 71%14%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch publicly demanded Starmer’s resignation after the April 16 report that Mandelson’s vetting had been overridden. Her statement was covered widely, adding pressure and pushing the “December 31” market to a new high (71 % on 2‑4 Mar 2026).
Starmer faces Commons showdown over Mandelson vetting scandal
Starmer faced intense questioning in Parliament over misleading claims about Mandelson's vetting, with opposition and some Labour MPs demanding his resignation, further destabilizing his premiership.
Starmer faces Commons questioning amid Mandelson vetting controversy
December 31 drops to 64%6%
Keir Starmer faced parliamentary questioning over the Mandelson vetting scandal, with opposition leaders accusing him of misleading Parliament and demanding his resignation.
Starmer dismisses Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting crisis
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Starmer sacked Olly Robbins following the vetting scandal, intensifying scrutiny on his leadership and impacting market confidence.
Starmer faces critical 48 hours amid growing outrage over Mandelson vetting
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Starmer was set to be questioned in the Commons about the Mandelson vetting scandal, with sacked permanent secretary Olly Robbins to testify. A leaked WhatsApp exchange suggested Downing Street knew of vetting concerns earlier than claimed, raising questions about whether Starmer misled Parliament and increasing resignation pressure.
Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer's resignation amid Mandelson fallout
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Following the Mandelson scandal and related resignations, senior Labour figures including Anas Sarwar publicly called for Starmer to step down, increasing political pressure and contributing to market price rises for the December 31 outcome.
UK‑Norway joint naval patrols announced amid Russian submarine activity
The defence partnership was presented as a strong security move but also underscored heightened threat levels, keeping pressure on Starmer’s leadership credibility.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson scandal
June 30 jumps to 52%7%
The resignation of Starmer’s chief of staff, who had advised the Mandelson appointment, intensified leadership doubts and pushed Yes prices for the June 30 outcome higher.
Foreign Office Permanent Secretary Sir Olly Robbins dismissed amid Mandelson vetting crisis
Starmer sacked Sir Olly Robbins after it emerged Robbins' department overruled security vetting to grant Mandelson clearance, intensifying the political crisis and calls for Starmer's resignation.
Revelation that Mandelson failed security vetting but Foreign Office overruled decision
December 31 jumps to 66%9%
The Foreign Office's override of security vetting for Mandelson was revealed, intensifying calls for Starmer's resignation and causing significant market volatility, especially increasing the December 31 outcome probability.
Report reveals Foreign Office overruled security vetting for Mandelson
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
A report confirmed the Foreign Office overruled the UK Security Vetting division's denial of Mandelson's clearance, deepening the scandal and leading to the dismissal of Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins, increasing calls for Starmer's resignation.
Starmer sacks foreign office permanent secretary over Mandelson vetting scandal
December 31 jumps to 60%14%
Parliamentary inquiries into Mandelson’s vetting and the dismissal of senior civil servant Olly Robbins created a brief dip in “December 31” odds (down to 46 % on 9 Apr) before a rapid rebound as Starmer defended his position.
Starmer sacks top diplomat after Mandelson vetting scandal erupts
December 31 jumps to 59%6%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson’s security vetting had failed and that the Foreign Office over‑ruled the recommendation sparked a parliamentary showdown. Starmer sacked Permanent Secretary Sir Olly Robbins the next day and faced calls from every opposition party for his resignation. The scandal sent the market’s “Yes” probability for Starmer leaving up sharply, pushing the price of the “December 31” outcome toward its high‑end.
Revelation that Foreign Office overruled security vetting to appoint Mandelson as ambassador
December 31 jumps to 69%6%
In April 2026, reports revealed the Foreign Office had overridden security vetting to approve Mandelson's ambassadorial appointment, contradicting Starmer's earlier statements and intensifying calls for his resignation. This scandal deepened the political crisis and increased market expectations of Starmer's departure by year-end.
Revelation that Foreign Office overruled security vetting to appoint Mandelson
A report confirmed that the Foreign Office, under Sir Olly Robbins, overruled the security vetting agency to allow Mandelson's appointment despite failing vetting. This led to Robbins' dismissal and intensified calls for Starmer's resignation.
Mandelson vetting scandal forces Starmer to sack top civil servant and fuels resignation calls
December 31 jumps to 57%13%
A report revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed the UK security‑vetting process in January 2025 and that the Foreign Office had overriden the recommendation. Starmer dismissed Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins and faced calls from opposition parties for his resignation. The scandal drove the “December 31” market up sharply (+14 pts on 17‑19 Apr), raising expectations that Starmer could be forced out by year‑end.
Revelations confirm Mandelson failed security vetting but Foreign Office overruled
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
Reports confirmed that Peter Mandelson failed his security vetting in January 2025, but the Foreign Office overruled the vetting agency's advice to allow his appointment. Starmer sacked Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins and faced accusations of misleading Parliament, intensifying calls for his resignation and driving up the December 31 outcome price.
Mandelson security vetting scandal: Foreign Office overruled UKSV decision
December 31 jumps to 70%10%
The Foreign Office overruled UK Security Vetting's denial of Peter Mandelson's security clearance, a highly unusual move that intensified scrutiny over Starmer's leadership and potential misleading of Parliament.
Leaked Report Reveals Peter Mandelson Failed Security Vetting
December 31 surges to 71%19%
Revelations emerged that the Foreign Office overruled security vetting agencies to push through Mandelson's appointment, leading to accusations that Starmer misled Parliament.
Starmer announces consideration of teen social‑media ban, sparking public debate
December 31 jumps to 69%9%
Starmer’s proposal to potentially ban social‑media access for under‑16s was seen as a bold policy move that divided opinion and added to political pressure, nudging the market further toward a ‘Yes’ outcome.
Starmer dismisses Foreign Office permanent secretary amid Mandelson vetting crisis
December 31 surges to 66%20%
Starmer's firing of Sir Olly Robbins over the Foreign Office's overruling of security vetting for Mandelson escalated the scandal, leading to calls for his resignation and impacting market prices significantly.
Keir Starmer dismisses top official Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting crisis
December 31 rises to 64%2%
Starmer dismissed the Foreign Office permanent secretary following revelations of a security vetting override for Peter Mandelson, intensifying scrutiny and calls for Starmer's resignation, impacting market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer proposes teen social‑media ban, sparking public debate
Starmer announced that a ban on social‑media use for under‑16s was being considered, echoing Australia’s policy. The proposal was controversial and seen as a distraction from governance, causing a dip in the December‑31 price.
SNP to force no‑confidence vote on Starmer during King’s Speech
December 31 surges to 65%18%
The SNP announced it would table a no‑confidence amendment to the King’s Speech, directly targeting Starmer. The market’s “December 31” price rose sharply from 47 % to 65 % YES by February 12, reflecting heightened risk of a forced removal before year‑end.
UK and Norway agree joint naval patrols amid rising Russian threats
December 31 surges to 68%16%
Starmer’s government announced joint naval patrols with Norway to protect undersea cables and counter Russian submarines, demonstrating leadership on security but with limited direct impact on his political standing.
Starmer faces backlash over teen social‑media ban proposal
Starmer’s suggestion to consider an Australia‑style ban on under‑16 social‑media use sparked debate about civil liberties, adding to political fatigue and nudging the market upward.
Starmer to address Strait of Hormuz crisis live
October 31 surges to 73%22%
Starmer announced a live press conference on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, shifting market focus to foreign‑policy risks. The “October 31” probability rose from 51 % to 73 % over 10 June–11 June, as traders linked a potential diplomatic misstep to an earlier removal of Starmer.
Starmer schedules live press conference on Strait of Hormuz crisis
June 30 jumps to 43%13%
Starmer announced a live press conference on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which temporarily eased market anxiety about his foreign‑policy competence. The June 30 price rose modestly from 30 % (11 Jan) to 43 % (6 Feb) after the announcement, indicating a short‑term confidence boost.
Keir Starmer holds live press conference on Strait of Hormuz crisis
Starmer addressed the nation amid rising global tensions affecting oil prices and the UK economy. While not directly related to his leadership crisis, this event demonstrated his active governance during turbulent times, with limited market impact on resignation odds.
Spring Statement unveils radical welfare‑cut reforms
Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the Spring Statement outlining major welfare‑cut reforms. The announcement triggered a sharp drop in the Yes‑price for the June 30 outcome as market participants expected the reforms to aggravate internal party dissent.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping, announces deeper UK‑China ties
The high‑profile meeting produced trade deals but also revived criticism that Starmer is too close to China, sustaining market pressure on his tenure.
Starmer visits China, seeks to deepen UK-China strategic partnership
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Starmer's visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping aimed to improve diplomatic and economic ties amid global turbulence. While it showcased Starmer's international engagement, it had limited effect on his domestic political challenges.
Labour MPs increasingly doubt Starmer's leadership amid ongoing crises
December 31 jumps to 70%5%
Continued internal party dissatisfaction and repeated crises erode confidence in Starmer's leadership, keeping market prices elevated for his potential departure by year-end.
Keir Starmer considers resignation amid Labour Party crisis
June 30 surges to 64%36%
Reports surfaced that Keir Starmer was contemplating resignation due to a political crisis within the Labour Party following poor local election results and internal divisions. This news increased market expectations for his resignation by June 30, 2026, reflecting heightened instability in the government.
UK government agrees to release documents on Mandelson’s ambassador appointment
December 31 rises to 71%4%
The government agreed to release documents related to Mandelson’s appointment to address mounting anger and opposition demands, keeping the scandal in public focus and maintaining pressure on Starmer.
YouGov poll shows Starmer’s approval at record low
December 31 jumps to 71%5%
A YouGov poll released showing Starmer’s approval slipping to a historic low triggered a modest rise in the “December 31” price (from 66 % on 23 Feb to 71 % on 2 Mar). The market interpreted the poll as evidence that opposition to Starmer was growing.
Starmer defends UK stance on Arctic security amid US‑China tensions
AP covered Starmer’s comments on Arctic security, reinforcing his image as a steady leader and contributing to a modest rise in the December‑31 contract.
Market confidence in Starmer's survival rises amid cabinet support
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
Following the crisis, Starmer's cabinet publicly backed him, easing fears of an imminent resignation and causing market prices for his continued premiership to increase notably.
Starmer visits Palantir's Washington HQ with Lord Mandelson, breaching ministerial code
December 31 rises to 64%3%
Starmer's undisclosed visit to Palantir's offices with Mandelson, a client of Mandelson's lobbying firm, raised allegations of ministerial code breaches, undermining his credibility and increasing market doubts about his tenure.
Labour suffers losses in local elections, Starmer refuses to quit
December 31 jumps to 60%6%
Labour's poor performance in local and regional elections was seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, with significant losses and gains by Reform UK, increasing pressure on Starmer but he vowed to stay, affecting market confidence.
Peter Mandelson arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office
December 31 surges to 73%22%
Following the release of Epstein-related documents, British police arrested Mandelson, intensifying the scandal and increasing pressure on Starmer, which caused a sharp rise in the December 31 market price.
Keir Starmer visits Washington amid diplomatic tensions
Starmer's visit to Washington, including meetings with ambassador Peter Mandelson, occurred before the Mandelson vetting scandal erupted, which later undermined Starmer's credibility and increased political pressure.
Starmer vows not to quit after local elections deliver losses for Labour
May 31 jumps to 31%12%
Following poor local and regional election results in May 2026, Starmer insisted he would not resign despite significant losses for Labour and gains for Reform UK. This tempered market expectations for an immediate departure, causing some price volatility especially for the May 31 and May 19 outcomes.
Labour faces special election loss in Greater Manchester, raising leadership concerns
June 30 drops to 43%7%
The anticipated loss in a Greater Manchester special election intensified speculation about Starmer's leadership future, contributing to a decline in market confidence for his continuation through mid-2026.
Former ambassador Peter Mandelson arrested on suspicion of misconduct
December 31 jumps to 71%11%
Mandelson was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office, intensifying the scandal around Starmer’s judgment. The development helped renew market optimism that Starmer might be forced out, contributing to a modest uptick in the “December 31” contract during late February.
UK police arrest Peter Mandelson over alleged misconduct linked to Epstein
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation and arrested Mandelson on suspicion of misconduct in public office related to his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. This intensified the political crisis for Starmer, undermining his leadership and increasing calls for his resignation.
Starmer campaigns ahead of Gorton and Denton by-election amid leadership uncertainty
December 31 rises to 70%4%
On February 23, 2026, Starmer campaigned ahead of a by-election triggered by a Labour MP's resignation. The event occurred during a period of growing internal party challenges and public dissatisfaction, reflecting ongoing instability in Starmer's leadership.
Peter Mandelson arrested amid Epstein scandal, intensifying pressure on Starmer
December 31 surges to 73%21%
The arrest of Mandelson, Starmer's appointee and Epstein associate, escalated the political crisis, severely undermining Starmer's judgment and increasing calls for his resignation, causing market volatility.
Peter Mandelson arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office
December 31 rises to 63%2%
British police arrested Mandelson amid allegations he shared sensitive government information with Epstein, intensifying the scandal and increasing pressure on Starmer's leadership, reflected in market price volatility.
Starmer apologises for Mandelson appointment, vows transparency
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson and promised to release related documents, attempting to calm party unrest. The apology was enough to halt the price surge, causing a modest pull‑back.
Labour think tank linked to Starmer funds smear campaign against journalists
Labour Together, associated with Starmer allies, funded a campaign to discredit journalists investigating party funding, intensifying negative media coverage and political pressure on Starmer, affecting market sentiment on his tenure.
Labour think tank funded smear campaign against journalists investigating party funding
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Revelations that Labour Together funded a smear campaign against journalists investigating undeclared donations added to negative media coverage and internal party tensions affecting Starmer's standing.
Starmer cancels plan to delay local elections amid legal challenge
May 31 jumps to 41%13%
Starmer reversed his decision to delay local elections in 30 councils after a legal challenge from Reform UK, highlighting his policy instability and contributing to declining approval ratings.
Keir Starmer reverses plan to delay local elections in England
December 31 surges to 71%15%
Starmer's U-turn on delaying local elections damaged his credibility and worsened internal party dissatisfaction, accelerating speculation about his potential resignation and impacting market prices for his departure by year-end.
Mandelson investigation opened, Starmer apologises
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
Metropolitan Police opened a criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson’s alleged leaks to Epstein, and Starmer publicly apologized, causing a sharp rise in Yes prices for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer’s chief of staff quits, citing Mandelson scandal
A second senior aide, Morgan McSweeney, stepped down, reinforcing the narrative of a collapsing inner circle and pushing the market sharply toward a “Yes” outcome.
Peter Mandelson vetting scandal erupts, Starmer dismisses top official Olly Robbins
December 31 jumps to 70%6%
The revelation that Mandelson failed security vetting but was appointed ambassador caused a major scandal, leading to the dismissal of a senior official and intense scrutiny of Starmer's leadership and judgment.
Starmer announces joint UK‑Norway naval patrols to protect undersea cables
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
A defence agreement with Norway to hunt Russian submarines and safeguard critical infrastructure was presented as a strong security move, boosting confidence in Starmer’s leadership.
Peter Mandelson dismissed as UK ambassador to US over Epstein association
December 31 jumps to 66%14%
Starmer's dismissal of Mandelson after revelations about his Epstein ties damaged the government's image and Starmer's leadership credibility, contributing to market volatility and doubts about his tenure.
Peter Mandelson fired as UK ambassador amid Epstein scandal
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
The firing of Mandelson, a controversial figure appointed by Starmer, amid revelations of his relationship with Epstein and security vetting failures, intensified calls for Starmer's resignation and destabilized his government.
Starmer defuses leadership crisis amid Mandelson fallout
December 31 surges to 71%17%
Starmer managed to fend off calls for resignation after the Mandelson appointment controversy, stabilizing his position temporarily and causing a peak in the December 31 outcome price to 71%.
Starmer defuses leadership crisis after Mandelson scandal but doubts linger
December 31 jumps to 64%11%
Starmer managed to survive a leadership challenge in February 2026 following the Mandelson appointment fallout, stabilizing the December 31 outcome price temporarily, though skepticism about his leadership remained.
Starmer faces furious Labour MPs after McSweeney resignation as he battles to save premiership
Starmer faced intense pressure from Labour MPs following the resignation of his Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney, highlighting internal party dissent and weakening his leadership position, which influenced market odds for his resignation by December 31.
Starmer refuses to resign despite mounting calls amid Mandelson scandal
December 31 rises to 71%1%
Despite calls from Labour MPs and public pressure, Starmer declares he is 'not prepared to walk away,' surviving an immediate leadership challenge and temporarily stabilizing market expectations.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls on Keir Starmer to resign
June 30 surges to 68%28%
Anas Sarwar became the first senior Labour figure to publicly demand Starmer step down, following the resignation of communications director Tim Allan.
Communications Director Tim Allan resigns amid mounting pressure on Starmer
Tim Allan resigned shortly after McSweeney, reflecting deepening crisis in Starmer's administration and fueling speculation about Starmer's potential resignation, pushing December 31 market odds higher.
Director of Communications Tim Allan resigns amid Mandelson scandal
June 30 jumps to 51%8%
Tim Allan resigned on February 9, 2026, following McSweeney's departure, signaling deep turmoil within Starmer's team. This further undermined confidence in Starmer's premiership and contributed to market price increases for his exit by June 30, 2026.
Keir Starmer's Director of Communications Tim Allan resigns
December 31 jumps to 82%12%
Tim Allan resigned shortly after McSweeney, signaling deep turmoil within Starmer's administration and accelerating market expectations of Starmer's exit by end of 2025 or early 2026.
Starmer Fights to Reassert Control, Stating He Is 'Not Prepared to Walk Away'
June 30 surges to 56%15%
Following the double resignation of his top aides, Starmer rejected immediate calls to step down, though several MPs warned his leadership was entering its endgame.
Starmer secures UK‑US trade deal reducing tariffs on key industries
AP reported a trade agreement with the United States that was seen as a major economic win for Starmer, driving the December‑31 contract to a new high in early February.
Starmer faces parliamentary pressure after police open Mandelson investigation
Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into former ambassador Peter Mandelson over alleged leaks to Jeffrey Epstein. The development revived questions about Starmer’s judgment and raised the risk of a leadership challenge, pushing the December‑31 price sharply upward.
Revelation that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
December 31 surges to 73%21%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security vetting before taking the ambassador post in early 2025, contradicting Starmer's claim of full due process. This led to a sharp rise in market prices for Starmer's departure by December 31 and June 30, reflecting increased risk to his leadership.
Starmer releases documents on Mandelson’s vetting process
December 31 drops to 62%8%
Starmer’s promise to publish vetting files was seen as an attempt to contain the scandal, but the partial release further eroded confidence, contributing to a dip from 70% to 62% on February 13.
Calls for Keir Starmer's resignation intensify amid Mandelson-Epstein scandal
June 30 surges to 42%20%
Following revelations about Peter Mandelson's ties to Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer faced mounting pressure with resignations of key aides and public calls for his departure, causing a sharp increase in market speculation about his potential exit by mid-2026.
Starmer vows to fight on despite leadership crisis
June 30 surges to 46%17%
Starmer publicly declared he would not resign amid intense pressure, rallying cabinet support and stabilizing his position temporarily, which was reflected in a rebound in market prices for his continued tenure.
Starmer condemns Russian GRU cyber‑attack, announces sanctions
A strong stance against Russia, including sanctions on alleged GRU officers, was intended to showcase leadership but also highlighted security challenges, marginally increasing resignation risk perception.
Starmer rejects calls to resign amid Labour turmoil
Following the resignation of close adviser Morgan McSweeney and growing internal party dissent, Starmer publicly declared he was not prepared to step down, temporarily stabilizing his position.
Starmer’s director of communications quits amid staff shake‑up
June 15 plunges to 0%50%
The resignation of Starmer’s Director of Communications, Tim Allan, a day after chief‑of‑staff Morgan McSweeney quit, signalled a rapid senior‑staff turnover. Traders interpreted the double‑exit as a sign that Starmer’s grip was weakening, sending the “June 15” price down to zero.
Starmer's chief of staff and communications director resign over Mandelson appointment
December 31 jumps to 62%12%
Morgan McSweeney and Tim Allan resigned within 24 hours amid fallout from the Mandelson vetting scandal, signaling deep turmoil within Starmer's administration and accelerating market expectations of his departure.
Starmer's Director of Communications Tim Allan resigns amid Mandelson scandal fallout
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Tim Allan resigned on February 9, 2026, following McSweeney's departure, signaling deep turmoil within Starmer's administration. This further undermined confidence in Starmer's leadership and contributed to rising market odds of his exit by the end of 2025.
Keir Starmer's Director of Communications Tim Allan resigns amid Mandelson scandal
Tim Allan resigned shortly after McSweeney, signaling deep turmoil within Starmer's team and accelerating market concerns about Starmer's tenure.
Keir Starmer faces mutinous MPs after McSweeney resignation over Mandelson scandal
May 31 jumps to 32%13%
Morgan McSweeney resigned as chief of staff over his role in appointing Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as US ambassador despite vetting concerns. This triggered internal Labour dissent and intensified pressure on Starmer.
Starmer says he was misled about Mandelson’s security vetting
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
Starmer told Parliament that he had been misled about Mandelson’s vetting, claiming “full due process” had been followed. The admission intensified speculation of a cover‑up, causing the “December 31” market to jump from 55 % to 62 % between 9‑14 Feb 2026.
Communications Director Tim Allan Quits Downing Street
June 30 surges to 41%19%
Tim Allan resigned just 24 hours after Morgan McSweeney, leaving Downing Street in administrative chaos and prompting calls for Starmer to step down.
Director of Communications Tim Allan resigns following McSweeney
June 15 dips to 6%2%
Tim Allan resigned shortly after McSweeney, compounding the perception of instability in Starmer's government and further depressing market confidence in his continued premiership through mid-2026.
Calls for Starmer to step down amid Mandelson-Epstein scandal
June 30 drops to 40%10%
Following revelations about Peter Mandelson’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer faced intensified calls to resign, creating a leadership crisis that affected market confidence in his tenure lasting through mid-2026.
Communications Director Tim Allan Resigns as Scottish Labour Leader Calls on Starmer to Quit
June 30 surges to 67%26%
Within 24 hours of McSweeney's exit, communications director Tim Allan also resigned. Hours later, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar became the first senior Labour figure to publicly demand Starmer's resignation.
Ipsos poll records Starmer’s net approval at –46 in February 2026
December 31 jumps to 68%7%
An Ipsos poll released on 9 February 2026 showed Starmer’s net approval at a historic low of –46, triggering a sudden surge in the “December 31” market (price rose from 61 % to 68 % that day). The market interpreted the deepening unpopularity as a sign that a resignation could be imminent before year‑end.
Director of Communications Tim Allan resigns amid mounting pressure on Starmer
December 31 rises to 70%4%
Tim Allan resigned as Director of Communications shortly after McSweeney's departure, signaling deep turmoil within Starmer's team and increasing market doubts about Starmer's ability to remain in office.
Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney Resigns Over Peter Mandelson Vetting Scandal
December 31 jumps to 64%13%
Starmer's chief of staff resigned, taking full responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
Starmer's Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite Mandelson's ties to Jeffrey Epstein and failing security vetting. This event marked a turning point in the market, increasing doubts about Starmer's leadership.
Starmer's Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Peter Mandelson ambassadorial appointment scandal
December 31 jumps to 61%9%
Morgan McSweeney resigned on February 8, 2026, taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador despite Mandelson's links to Jeffrey Epstein and failing security vetting. This scandal severely damaged Starmer's credibility and triggered a sharp market reaction, increasing the perceived likelihood of his departure by December 31, 2025.
Starmer’s chief of staff and communications director quit amid Mandelson scandal
June 15 plunges to 8%42%
Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned on 8 Feb, followed by communications director Tim Allan on 9 Feb, both over the Mandelson vetting row. The double resignation dramatically increased market confidence that Starmer would leave, pushing the June 15 outcome down from 50 % to 8 % and the June 30 outcome from 36 % to 31 %.
Resignations of Starmer's Chief of Staff and Communications Director amid Mandelson scandal
December 31 jumps to 62%12%
Morgan McSweeney and Tim Allan resigned following the fallout from Peter Mandelson's appointment as US Ambassador despite failing security vetting. These resignations intensified pressure on Starmer and led to a sharp increase in market odds for his resignation by the end of 2025.
Starmer's Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson appointment
June 30 jumps to 43%14%
Morgan McSweeney resigned on February 8, 2026, taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador despite Mandelson's ties to Jeffrey Epstein. This resignation intensified scrutiny on Starmer's leadership and increased market odds of his departure by mid-2026.
Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns amid Mandelson scandal
June 15 plunges to 8%42%
Morgan McSweeney resigned over the Peter Mandelson appointment scandal, signaling deep turmoil in Starmer's administration and triggering a sharp market reaction reflecting increased chances of Starmer's exit by mid-2026.
Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns amid Mandelson scandal
June 30 surges to 68%28%
The resignation of Starmer's Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney significantly weakened the Prime Minister's position and accelerated calls for his departure.
Downing Street Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney Resigns Over Mandelson Appointment
December 31 surges to 82%23%
Starmer's closest adviser, Morgan McSweeney, and communications director Tim Allan resigned over the fallout from appointing Peter Mandelson, who had documented ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
Resignations of Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney and Director of Communications Tim Allan amid Mandelson scandal
December 31 surges to 72%21%
Following revelations about Peter Mandelson's failed security vetting and his controversial appointment as UK ambassador to the US, Starmer's Chief of Staff and Director of Communications resigned, signaling deep turmoil in his administration and accelerating market expectations of his departure.
Metropolitan Police confirm searches related to Mandelson scandal amid calls for Starmer resignation
Police searches in Wiltshire and Camden related to the Mandelson scandal intensified scrutiny on Starmer, with former Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman warning Starmer risks being toppled unless he takes action. This increased market perception of Starmer's vulnerability, pushing resignation odds higher for the December 31 outcome.
Peter Mandelson resigns as UK Ambassador amid Epstein scandal
Peter Mandelson resigned following revelations of his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, triggering a major political scandal that undermined Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership and led to calls for his resignation.
UK police launch criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson over Epstein leaks
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
The launch of a formal police probe heightened pressure on Starmer, coinciding with a jump in the December‑31 price from 62% to 70% as traders priced in a possible leadership crisis.
Keir Starmer faces political crisis amid Peter Mandelson scandal
December 31 surges to 66%15%
Starmer's premiership was severely damaged after revelations about Peter Mandelson's links to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, leading to public apologies and calls for Starmer's resignation. This scandal undermined confidence in his leadership and triggered ministerial resignations.
Keir Starmer faces backlash over Peter Mandelson vetting scandal
December 31 jumps to 67%14%
Starmer was criticized after revelations that Peter Mandelson, appointed as US Ambassador, failed security vetting but was approved by the Foreign Office. This led to the dismissal of the Foreign Office permanent secretary and intensified calls for Starmer's resignation, impacting market confidence in his leadership.
Starmer’s Mandelson‑Epstein scandal erupts in Commons
June 15 plunges to 0%50%
Starmer was forced to admit he knew about Peter Mandelson’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein while defending his appointment as UK ambassador to Washington. The revelation sparked a parliamentary revolt, a U‑turn on document‑access commitments and calls for Starmer to resign. The market’s Yes‑probability jumped from 51 % to 58 % on 8 Feb, pushing the most likely out‑date forward to the earliest charted option (June 15).
Starmer claims Mandelson passed security vetting despite evidence to contrary
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
At a press conference, Starmer stated that Mandelson had cleared security vetting, contradicting reports that he failed. This misstatement intensified calls for Starmer's resignation and led to a spike in resignation odds, pushing the December 31 outcome price higher.
Peter Mandelson vetting crisis leads to dismissal of Foreign Office permanent secretary
December 31 jumps to 67%14%
The dismissal of Sir Olly Robbins in February 2026 amid the Mandelson vetting scandal exposed serious government mismanagement and damaged Starmer's credibility. The crisis intensified calls for his resignation and negatively impacted market confidence in his leadership.
Starmer sacks FO permanent secretary amid Mandelson vetting controversy
Starmer was forced to dismiss the Foreign Office’s permanent secretary after a vetting scandal involving ambassador‑designate Peter Mandelson, a story that briefly pushed the Yes‑price for the June 30 outcome higher before a rapid reversal.
Keir Starmer embroiled in Peter Mandelson scandal amid calls for resignation
December 31 surges to 73%22%
Starmer faced a major political crisis after revelations about Peter Mandelson's links to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, damaging Starmer's credibility and prompting calls for his resignation. This scandal led to resignations within his team and a sharp decline in market confidence for Starmer's continued premiership.
Keir Starmer apologises over Mandelson Epstein scandal amid political fallout
June 30 drops to 28%12%
Starmer publicly apologised for appointing Peter Mandelson, who was linked to Jeffrey Epstein, damaging his leadership credibility and triggering calls for resignation. This scandal led to a sharp decline in market confidence for Starmer's tenure beyond June 30, 2026.
Keir Starmer dismisses top official Olly Robbins amid Peter Mandelson vetting crisis
December 31 jumps to 66%13%
Starmer dismissed the Foreign Office permanent secretary following a scandal over Peter Mandelson's security clearance and arrest. The crisis damaged Starmer's credibility and intensified calls for his resignation, affecting market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer faces fallout from Peter Mandelson vetting crisis, dismisses top official
December 31 jumps to 66%13%
In early February 2026, Starmer's government was rocked by the dismissal of Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins amid the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal. The crisis raised questions about Starmer's knowledge and judgment, damaging his credibility and contributing to leadership doubts.
Opposition leader calls for Starmer’s resignation over vetting row
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch publicly demanded Starmer’s resignation after the Mandelson vetting scandal, contributing to a brief rally in the Yes‑price for the June 15 outcome, which later fell to zero as the crisis deepened.
Starmer admits Mandelson lied during vetting, announces removal from Privy Council
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Starmer publicly acknowledged Peter Mandelson's dishonesty during security vetting and announced his removal from the Privy Council, intensifying scrutiny on Starmer's leadership and triggering resignations within his team.
Starmer's chief of staff and communications director resign over Mandelson scandal
December 31 jumps to 63%13%
Morgan McSweeney and Tim Allan resigned within 24 hours amid fallout from Peter Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein association, accelerating market doubts about Starmer's tenure.
Starmer apologises for appointing Epstein‑linked Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador
December 31 surges to 70%15%
Starmer apologised in Parliament for appointing Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador after new documents linked Mandelson to Jeffrey Epstein. The admission sparked a fresh wave of criticism, a police investigation and renewed calls for Starmer’s removal, pushing the market’s “December 31” contract up from the mid‑50 % range to the low‑70 % range in the weeks that followed.
Starmer admits knowledge of Mandelson‑Epstein ties, apologises in Parliament
December 31 surges to 73%22%
A scandal erupted when Starmer admitted he knew about Peter Mandelson’s relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and had appointed him as ambassador to Washington. The story dominated news cycles and caused a sharp rise in the “Starmer out by Dec 31” price – from 51 % on 2 Feb to 73 % on 9 Feb (priceBefore = 51, priceAfter = 73).
Starmer admits Mandelson lied about Epstein ties and faces calls to resign
During Prime Minister's Questions, Starmer stated that Peter Mandelson had lied repeatedly about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, leading to increased scrutiny and calls for Starmer's resignation. This event marked a significant escalation in the scandal, impacting market sentiment on Starmer's tenure.
Starmer fights for political survival amid deepening crisis
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
Starmer is described as fighting for his political life amid the deepest crisis of his premiership, with political analysts raising the probability of a leadership bid and removal this year, causing market prices to spike.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson‑Epstein revelations
May 31 jumps to 26%7%
The same resignation also caused a dramatic swing in the May‑31 outcome as traders priced in a higher risk of an imminent resignation.
Police open criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson over alleged Epstein leaks
December 31 jumps to 68%7%
The launch of a police investigation into Mandelson’s alleged misconduct heightened pressure on Starmer, who had appointed him, leading to a sharp price jump as traders priced in a higher risk of his resignation.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson‑Epstein revelations
June 30 surges to 48%26%
Morgan McSweeney quit, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment; the resignation intensified scrutiny of Starmer’s judgment and drove the June‑30 and May‑31 outcomes sharply upward.
Peter Mandelson scandal deepens, damaging Starmer's leadership
December 31 drops to 61%9%
The release of new files about Peter Mandelson's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein led to Starmer dismissing Mandelson and taking political damage. This scandal contributed to declining confidence in Starmer's leadership, reflected in market price drops for near-term outcomes.
Downing Street engulfed in crisis over Peter Mandelson vetting debacle
June 30 surges to 49%27%
Starmer faced intense backlash from backbenchers over his political judgment in appointing Peter Mandelson, who had known links to Jeffrey Epstein.
Starmer defuses leadership crisis over Mandelson appointment
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
Starmer managed to quell immediate leadership challenges after some Labour lawmakers called for his resignation over the Mandelson scandal, stabilizing market prices temporarily for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer says Mandelson repeatedly lied about Epstein ties at PMQs
June 30 surges to 49%23%
During Prime Minister’s Questions Starmer publicly accused former ambassador Peter Mandelson of lying about his Epstein connections, reigniting internal turmoil and prompting a brief rebound in “June 30” odds (up ~23 points to 49 %).
Starmer faces crisis as Mandelson-Epstein scandal triggers resignations
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
The appointment of Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador amid Epstein links causes resignations of Starmer's chief of staff and communications director, deepening the leadership crisis and raising market fears of imminent departure.
Keir Starmer visits China to promote trade and diplomatic relations
December 31 dips to 51%2%
Starmer's high-profile visit to China aimed to strengthen economic ties and showcased his active foreign policy, possibly stabilizing market sentiment temporarily.
Starmer visits China and Japan, first UK‑leader trip since 2018
August 31 jumps to 54%10%
Starmer’s first overseas trip as PM – a visit to Beijing and Tokyo – was designed to boost trade. The market’s “August 31” odds moved from 44 % to 54 % on 10 June, as analysts speculated that a foreign‑policy win could stabilise his premiership and delay any ouster.
Starmer rallies cabinet support amid leadership crisis over Mandelson scandal
December 31 rises to 52%4%
Senior Cabinet ministers publicly backed Starmer despite the ongoing Mandelson scandal and leadership challenges, stabilizing market confidence somewhat for the December 31 outcome.
Labour leadership challenge discussions intensify amid poor election results
December 31 rises to 52%4%
Following disastrous local election results, Labour MPs and former ministers publicly called for Starmer to step down, increasing pressure and market expectations of his departure by the end of 2025.
Starmer announces China visit amid US‑UK tensions
May 31 jumps to 27%8%
Starmer’s planned trip to China to seek a strategic partnership was announced, raising hopes for economic gains but also sparking criticism from US allies, nudging Yes prices for the May 31 outcome upward.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment scandal
June 30 surges to 57%29%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein triggered a political crisis for Starmer, with calls for his resignation and cabinet ministers rallying around him. This event caused a sharp increase in the market's probability for Starmer leaving by June 30 and December 31.
Wes Streeting urged Starmer to sack him for disloyalty amid leadership tensions
June 30 drops to 23%5%
Internal Labour Party tensions escalated with cabinet ministers calling for action against Wes Streeting, who was preparing a leadership challenge, increasing pressure on Starmer's position.
Starmer and Xi Jinping call for deeper UK-China ties amid global turbulence
Starmer's diplomatic engagement with China aimed to boost economic growth and stability, which helped moderate negative market sentiment but did not significantly alter leadership risk perceptions.
Starmer announces new UK‑Japan cybersecurity and critical minerals pact
The AP article on the UK‑Japan agreement highlighted Starmer’s active foreign policy, which helped push the December‑31 contract back up toward its peak.
Release of Epstein files reveals Mandelson’s continued ties and alleged misconduct
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
The U.S. Justice Department released millions of Epstein-related documents showing Mandelson’s ongoing relationship with Epstein and possible sharing of sensitive government information, leading to police investigations and further damaging Starmer’s standing, pushing December 31 outcome prices higher.
UK police open criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson over alleged leaks to Epstein
December 31 rises to 56%3%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into Mandelson for misconduct in public office related to sharing sensitive information with Epstein, escalating the scandal and increasing pressure on Starmer's leadership through December 31, 2025.
Starmer denies plans to quit despite mounting pressure
December 31 rises to 51%4%
Starmer publicly dismissed rumors about his resignation, asserting he would remain PM, which helped stabilize market prices for his continued premiership through the end of 2025 and into 2026.
Labour suffers poor local election results, Starmer admits mistakes and promises change
December 31 dips to 48%3%
Following disappointing election outcomes, Starmer publicly took responsibility and pledged a fresh direction, reflecting internal party challenges and affecting market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer heads to China for strategic partnership talks
The prime minister’s four‑day visit to Beijing was framed as an economic boost but drew criticism at home, creating uncertainty about his foreign‑policy stance and nudging the market higher.
Labour Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing lost confidence in Starmer
December 31 plunges to 30%17%
Streeting's resignation was a major blow to Starmer's leadership, signaling a significant loss of support within the cabinet and escalating the leadership crisis.
Labour suffers disastrous local election results, leadership challenge intensifies
December 31 rises to 60%1%
Following poor local election outcomes, Starmer faces mounting pressure with leadership challengers emerging, notably Catherine West, and calls for a fresh direction, increasing market odds of his departure.
Keir Starmer deemed incapable of resolving UK's cost of living crisis
December 31 jumps to 64%11%
Public and political commentators criticized Starmer's handling of the economy, highlighting worsening financial conditions for households and undermining confidence in his leadership, which pressured his position.
Former Mayor Predicts Starmer Will Be Ousted Following Local Elections
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Former Middlesbrough Mayor Andy Preston predicted Starmer's imminent departure in 2026, citing low public optimism and disastrous upcoming local elections.
Political analyst predicts Keir Starmer will be gone by mid-2026 after poor public support
December 31 jumps to 63%6%
Public pessimism and expert predictions about Starmer's leadership longevity contributed to market price increases for his departure by year-end 2025 and beyond.
Public pessimism grows over Starmer's leadership and economic outlook
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Commentators and public figures expressed bleak predictions for Starmer's tenure in 2026, citing lack of charisma and leadership, which contributed to market sentiment favoring his exit by year-end.
Starmer says rumours of his exit are ‘rife’ but he will stay
December 31 jumps to 66%9%
Starmer told MPs on the Liaison Committee that rumours of his departure were “rife”, but vowed to stay. The comment came just before the market’s biggest swing (+11 points on 2025‑12‑17) as bettors reassessed the likelihood of a year‑end ouster, pushing the “December 31” probability up to 66 % by 2025‑12‑16.
Starmer Promises 'Decline Will Be Reversed' in New Year Message
December 31 drops to 54%5%
Starmer delivered a New Year address promising positive change in 2026, attempting to stabilize his leadership after a turbulent year of sluggish growth and dismal poll ratings.
Starmer announces new year plan to cut cost of living and woo MPs
December 31 jumps to 65%6%
In an effort to regain public and party support, Starmer outlined plans to reduce the cost of living and engage MPs, aiming to stabilize his leadership and improve market sentiment about his tenure lasting through 2026.
Starmer tells Liaison Committee 2026 will be make‑or‑break year
December 31 rises to 52%2%
On New Year’s Eve Starmer addressed Parliament’s Liaison Committee, saying “2026 will be make‑or‑break”. The optimistic tone lifted confidence, lifting the “December 31” probability to its endpoint of 52 % by 28 Jan 2026.
Labour MPs debate Starmer’s future amid internal party unrest
December 31 rises to 60%1%
As the year ended, Labour MPs were actively discussing whether Starmer should remain leader, reflecting ongoing instability and uncertainty that influenced market expectations for his tenure through December 31, 2025.
Growing internal Labour debate on Starmer's future as PM
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
Reports surfaced of internal Labour Party discussions and speculation about whether Starmer should remain PM, reflecting political uncertainty and influencing market odds around his tenure ending by year-end 2025 or beyond.
Speculation mounts over potential Labour leadership challenge to Starmer
December 31 rises to 60%1%
Commentators and party members openly debated ousting Starmer or forcing his resignation as his personal approval ratings hit historic lows.
Starmer’s approval sinks below –40 in latest polls
December 31 jumps to 71%8%
PollBludger reported on 27 December 2025 that recent YouGov and Ipsos surveys placed Starmer’s net approval below –40, with a record –61 in one poll. This negative shock buoyed the “December 31” market again, pushing the implied Yes‑probability to a new high of 71 % by early 2026.
Poll Shows Over One in Three Labour Voters Want Starmer to Resign
December 31 drops to 50%9%
A JL Partners poll revealed deep dissatisfaction among Labour's own voter base, with 38% believing the party would perform better under a different leader.
Starmer announces investigation into Mandelson‑Epstein files
Starmer pledged to release government emails related to Mandelson’s vetting, signalling a possible accountability process that heightened speculation about his political survival.
Keir Starmer publicly rebukes Wes Streeting amid early leadership challenge signs
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
Starmer publicly rejects Health Secretary Wes Streeting's pro-EU customs union comments, seen as an early leadership challenge shot, increasing political tensions and market concerns about Starmer's stability.
Starmer Rejects Streeting's Call for Closer EU Customs Ties Amid Leadership Speculation
December 31 dips to 59%2%
Downing Street publicly slapped down Health Secretary Wes Streeting's suggestions of a closer trading relationship with the EU, which backbenchers viewed as an early pitch for a future leadership contest.
Starmer publicly rebukes Health Secretary Wes Streeting amid leadership speculation
December 31 dips to 49%1%
Starmer's public response to Streeting's pro-EU customs union comments was seen as an early shot in a leadership contest, reflecting growing factionalism and impacting market sentiment on Starmer's stability.
Starmer publicly rebukes Health Secretary Wes Streeting over EU customs union comments
June 30 drops to 33%5%
Starmer's public rejection of Streeting's pro-EU customs union stance exposed leadership tensions and contributed to market uncertainty about Starmer's stability, influencing June 30 outcome prices.
Wes Streeting publicly rebuffs leadership challenge rumors
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting publicly denied plotting against Starmer and criticized Downing Street's briefing as self-destructive, temporarily stabilizing Starmer's position and affecting market prices for December 31 outcome positively.
Labour Party Chair Insists Starmer Will 'Absolutely' Remain PM Through Next Christmas
December 31 dips to 59%4%
Labour Party Chair Anna Turley publicly defended Starmer's position, pushing back against widespread speculation that backbenchers would trigger a leadership challenge after the May local elections.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment advice
December 31 rises to 57%1%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the prime minister to appoint Mandelson, adding to the scandal and leadership crisis.
Keir Starmer faces skeptical MPs as 2026 seen as make-or-break year
December 31 dips to 59%3%
Starmer told his cabinet 2026 would be a turnaround year, but skeptical MPs questioned his leadership amid ongoing challenges, reinforcing market expectations of a possible exit by year-end.
UK police open criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson
December 31 jumps to 73%11%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson for potential misconduct in public office related to his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, significantly increasing pressure on Starmer.
Starmer pledges bold policy reset ahead of 2025‑2026 budget
December 31 surges to 92%36%
Starmer announced a major policy reset and promised a “new, decisive” agenda ahead of the 2025‑2026 budget. The optimistic message temporarily lifted market confidence that Starmer would survive, pushing the “December 31” contract up to its peak of 92 % on 16 May 2026 after a series of positive signals.
Keir Starmer announces three Rolls-Royce SMRs to be sited at Wylfa
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
Starmer's government committed to nuclear power expansion, signaling policy focus amid political challenges, which may have temporarily bolstered market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer defuses Mandelson‑veting controversy in Parliament
December 31 jumps to 59%6%
Starmer answered parliamentary questions about the Mandelson vetting process, claiming ignorance of Epstein ties, which temporarily steadied market sentiment after earlier turmoil.
Starmer faces parliamentary backlash over Mandelson ambassador appointment
December 31 rises to 61%4%
After the Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting, Starmer’s handling of the appointment sparked calls for his resignation, pushing the December‑31 option up from 57% to 61%.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson‑Epstein controversy
Morgan McSweeney quit, citing the Mandelson appointment as a mistake, intensifying internal pressure on Starmer and causing a noticeable uptick in the market’s “Yes” price.
Starmer’s government announces strategic partnership with China
Starmer’s visit to Beijing and the signing of a strategic partnership were framed as a boost to the UK economy. Traders viewed the diplomatic win as a sign of political stability, nudging the December‑31 probability higher.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
December 31 dips to 57%3%
Starmer admitted he had 'believed Mandelson's lies' about his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, further damaging his credibility and triggering a market reaction.
UK government agrees to release documents on Mandelson's ambassador appointment
December 31 jumps to 61%7%
The UK government promised to release emails and documents related to Mandelson's appointment, aiming to quell anger but also fueling further scrutiny of Starmer's judgment, affecting market sentiment for the December 31 outcome.
Local elections deliver heavy losses for Labour
June 30 jumps to 42%7%
The bruising local and regional elections saw Labour lose more than half the seats it defended, intensifying speculation about Starmer’s tenure and lifting Yes prices for the June 30 outcome.
Labour suffers poor local election results, intensifying leadership crisis
December 31 drops to 37%7%
The disappointing election outcomes further eroded Starmer's support within the party and among the public, leading to increased calls for his resignation and ministerial resignations.
Starmer meets with European leaders amid ongoing political pressure
December 31 rises to 60%3%
Starmer's engagement with European leaders highlighted his efforts to maintain international standing despite domestic turmoil, but did not significantly improve market confidence in his near-term tenure.
Starmer meets US President Trump to discuss NATO and Greenland
AP reported a high‑profile meeting between Starmer and Trump, which temporarily raised concerns about UK‑US relations and caused a short‑term dip in the December‑31 contract.
Starmer meets with Ukraine and European leaders amid ongoing crises
December 31 rises to 60%2%
Starmer met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and European leaders, highlighting his role in international diplomacy. However, this did not alleviate domestic political pressures from the Mandelson scandal and economic challenges.
Keir Starmer publicly rebukes Wes Streeting amid early leadership challenge signs
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
In December 2025, Starmer publicly responded to Health Secretary Wes Streeting's comments advocating closer UK-EU ties, which were seen as an early leadership challenge. This event highlighted internal party divisions and contributed to market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson as ambassador despite Epstein ties, intensifying pressure on Starmer and fueling market uncertainty about his tenure, pushing December 31 outcome prices higher.
Defra announces sweeping animal‑welfare reforms, including bans on hen cages and pig crates
June 30 jumps to 36%6%
Announcement of a new animal‑welfare package (bans on hen cages and pig crates) temporarily lifted market sentiment, nudging the “June 30” outcome upward from 30 % to the mid‑30 % range.
Starmer meets President Xi in Beijing, seeking economic boost
December 31 rises to 57%4%
Starmer’s high‑profile visit to China was framed as a bid to revive the UK economy, but domestic critics warned the trip could backfire politically, causing a modest rise in the market’s expectation of his removal.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping to seek thaw in UK-China relations
December 31 rises to 57%4%
Starmer's visit to China aimed to boost the UK economy and improve diplomatic ties, but also highlighted tensions with the US and internal party concerns, impacting perceptions of his leadership stability.
Starmer appoints Peter Mandelson as US ambassador
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
Starmer appointed Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington, widely criticised as a political crony move. The “December 31” price rose from 55 % to 61 % as the market saw Starmer trying to shore up loyalty.
Starmer faces parliamentary showdown after Mandelson appointment scandal erupts
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Senior ministers rallied behind Starmer as MPs demanded answers over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador despite failed security vetting, raising doubts about Starmer’s leadership and pushing the December‑31 outcome higher.
Office for Budget Responsibility chief resigns amid budget leak controversy
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
The resignation of the OBR chief following a budget leak added to the political turmoil surrounding Starmer's government, undermining confidence in his leadership and affecting market perceptions of his stability.
CNN poll: Starmer the most unpopular UK prime minister in history
December 31 jumps to 63%6%
A CNN poll released on 30 Nov 2025 showed Starmer as the most unpopular UK prime minister on record (approval 13 %). The poll’s release coincided with a price surge for the “December 31” outcome, pushing the Yes probability up to 63 % as market participants perceived a rising risk of removal.
‘They all think Keir is done’: internal pushback backfires
June 30 drops to 27%6%
The Guardian ran a front‑page analysis titled “‘They all think Keir is done’”. The piece highlighted internal dissent and helped drive the “June 30” odds down to 27 % in the week of 14 Dec 2025.
Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves announce autumn budget with tax increases
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The government unveiled a budget expected to break Labour’s election pledge by raising income taxes, intensifying political pressure on Starmer and fueling speculation about his leadership's longevity.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announces tax-hiking Budget amid leadership pressure
June 30 drops to 38%6%
The announcement of a tax-hiking Budget by Chancellor Rachel Reeves increased pressure on Starmer, with critics expecting a leadership challenge soon after, influencing market prices downward for the June 30 outcome.
Chancellor Reeves unveils tax‑hiking budget, breaking manifesto pledge
June 30 drops to 19%12%
Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a tax‑hiking budget that broke Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise taxes. The budget sparked fresh leadership‑challenge talk and pushed the “June 30” market to its lowest point of 19 % on 2026‑01‑05, while the “December 31” market remained elevated.
Labour faces internal strife as Wes Streeting and others accused of plotting against Starmer
June 30 drops to 36%8%
Reports of Health Secretary Wes Streeting's leadership ambitions and internal plotting intensified the leadership crisis, undermining Starmer's authority and affecting market prices negatively for short-term outcomes.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein ambassador appointment
December 31 jumps to 61%8%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson as ambassador despite Epstein ties, escalating the political storm and further undermining Starmer's leadership, impacting the December 31 market outcome.
Starmer's Mandelson appointment under fire as opposition demands resignation
June 30 plunges to 24%19%
Local and regional election results showed Labour losing over half its seats, with the hard-right Reform UK making major gains. This triggered widespread calls for Starmer to step down and increased pressure on his leadership.
Keir Starmer publicly criticizes Nigel Farage over racism allegations
December 31 drops to 54%5%
Starmer's public condemnation of Nigel Farage for alleged racist and antisemitic comments heightened political tensions and media scrutiny, contributing to perceptions of instability in Starmer's leadership. This event coincided with market fluctuations in late November 2025.
Three junior ministers resign, intensifying rebellion
December 31 dips to 53%2%
A wave of resignations (Jess Phillips, Miatta Fahnbulleh, and two others) was reported on 20 Nov. The market’s “December 31” price slipped to its low‑50s, reflecting heightened speculation of a leadership overthrow.
Starmer apologises for Mandelson‑Epstein revelations, promises investigation
Starmer’s public apology and the launch of a police investigation into Mandelson were covered by AP, causing a brief dip in the December‑31 contract before it recovered later in the window.
Critics say Starmer’s leadership lacks clear purpose amid ongoing crises
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Commentators and party insiders described Starmer’s leadership as directionless and ineffective, with growing disenchantment within Labour, which kept market sentiment fragile but did not trigger immediate price collapse for December 31.
Starmer demands end to cabinet infighting and leaks following damaging political turmoil
June 30 jumps to 43%11%
The Prime Minister pleaded with senior ministers to stop briefing against each other and leaking budget details, attempting to regain control of his embattled government.
Starmer pleads for unity after week of political turmoil
June 30 dips to 22%4%
The Guardian reported Starmer urging ministers to stop leaking budget details after a turbulent week. The internal crisis narrative kept the “June 30” odds suppressed, holding them around the low‑20s through January 2026.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
December 31 jumps to 58%7%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer's leadership stability through December 31, 2025.
Clive Lewis publicly calls for Keir Starmer's resignation amid leadership unrest
June 30 jumps to 44%13%
Clive Lewis became the first Labour MP to publicly call for Starmer's resignation following reports of plans to replace him after the November 2025 budget, signaling growing leadership challenges and impacting market confidence in Starmer's tenure through June 30.
Parliamentary allies rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, appointed ambassador to the U.S., had undisclosed ties to Jeffrey Epstein, intensifying scrutiny of Starmer’s judgment and nudging the market upward.
Safeguarding minister Jess Phillips resigns after local election losses
June 15 plunges to 5%45%
Junior minister Jess Phillips announced her resignation following disastrous local‑election results. The announcement coincided with a sharp drop in the “June 15” contract from 50 % to around 5 %, reflecting market belief that Starmer’s position was becoming untenable.
Is Keir Starmer facing a plot to depose him as UK prime minister?
June 30 drops to 36%8%
Al Jazeera reported a plot to depose Starmer, citing unnamed senior aides warning that any attempt to remove him would be reckless. The story coincided with a trough in the “June 30” market (‑8 points on 2025‑11‑22) and a modest rise in the “December 31” market later in November.
Speculation mounts on Keir Starmer's leadership amid poor polling and party dissent
December 31 rises to 54%4%
By mid-November 2025, Starmer's leadership was increasingly questioned due to poor polling and internal party dissent, marking the start of a sustained decline in confidence that influenced market prices for his departure by year-end.
Speculation mounts over Keir Starmer's leadership amid economic stagnation
June 30 jumps to 44%7%
Reports highlighted Starmer's struggles with a low-growth economy and stagnant inflation, fueling speculation about his leadership stability and potential challenges within the Labour Party. This contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure lasting beyond mid-2026.
Labour faces internal rebellion after poor election results
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Following poor local election results in November 2025, Labour MPs began openly calling for Starmer's resignation, with growing dissent within the party and media coverage highlighting his precarious position.
Is Starmer facing a plot to depose him as UK prime minister?
June 30 dips to 31%4%
Al Jazeera reported unnamed senior aides warning that a plot to depose Starmer was “reckless”. The story amplified speculation of his removal, pushing the “June 30” price down to a low of 31 % on 13 Nov 2025.
Labour Together funds smear campaign against journalists investigating party funding
December 31 jumps to 51%7%
Labour Together, a think tank linked to Starmer's rise, paid lobbyists to discredit journalists probing undeclared donations, revealing internal party conflicts and undermining Starmer's image amid growing scrutiny.
Reports emerge of plot to depose Starmer after November budget
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Media reports indicated plans to replace Starmer with Wes Streeting after the November 2025 budget, increasing market speculation about Starmer's potential exit and raising prices for the December 31 outcome.
Reports emerge of plots to remove Keir Starmer amid declining popularity
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Following poor polling and internal dissatisfaction, media reported plans to replace Starmer after the November 2025 budget. This news contributed to increased market uncertainty about his leadership, particularly affecting medium-term outcomes like December 31, 2025.
Reports emerge of Wes Streeting plotting against Starmer
June 30 jumps to 48%12%
News outlets reported that Health Secretary Wes Streeting was plotting against Starmer, escalating leadership tensions and contributing to market volatility, particularly a spike in the June 30 outcome price.
Plots to depose Keir Starmer emerge amid deep unpopularity
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
By mid-November 2025, Starmer faced internal party plots to remove him as UK Prime Minister due to his falling approval ratings and Labour's poor performance, signaling early signs of leadership instability.
Al Jazeera reports on Starmer facing a plot to depose him as UK prime minister
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Al Jazeera detailed the internal crisis within the Labour Party, highlighting the briefing crisis and the political instability surrounding Starmer's leadership, which further influenced market perceptions of his vulnerability.
Paul Holden Publishes 'The Fraud' Detailing Machinations Behind Starmer's Rise
June 30 surges to 51%28%
The publication of a highly critical book detailing the inner workings of Labour Together and Morgan McSweeney's influence fueled negative media coverage and internal party scrutiny.
Labour lawmakers call for new leadership following Mandelson scandal
June 30 rises to 38%4%
Following the poor election results and ongoing controversy over the Mandelson appointment, several Labour lawmakers publicly questioned Starmer's leadership and called for a change.
Reports emerge of plans to replace Keir Starmer amid party unrest
December 31 jumps to 61%8%
Media reported that groups of Labour MPs had begun planning to replace Starmer, reflecting internal party divisions and growing dissatisfaction with his leadership, which contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Starmer denies authorizing negative briefings amid leadership plot rumors
June 30 drops to 28%5%
Facing rumors of a plot within his party to oust him, Starmer publicly denied authorizing negative briefings against rivals, reflecting internal party strife and contributing to a decline in confidence for the June 30 outcome.
Starmer's authority shaken as defensive briefings backfire and expose deep party rifts
June 30 jumps to 40%12%
Efforts by Starmer's allies to shore up his position backfired spectacularly, with MPs from various factions openly discussing his replacement and calling him 'done'.
Labour leadership challenge rumors intensify after poor election forecasts
December 31 jumps to 55%5%
Following poor polling and anticipated electoral setbacks, rumors of a leadership challenge against Starmer intensified in November 2025. Starmer's allies prepared for a contest, and internal party divisions became public, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations for earlier exit dates.
Rumors of leadership challenge against Keir Starmer emerge amid political turmoil
December 31 drops to 40%10%
Reports surfaced of a potential plot to depose Starmer as Prime Minister, reflecting growing unrest within the Labour Party and concerns over his leadership amid economic stagnation and internal dissent. This news contributed to a drop in market confidence for Starmer's continued tenure by mid-2026.
Downing Street briefing against Wes Streeting backfires, intensifying leadership tensions
June 30 jumps to 42%8%
A leaked briefing from Starmer's allies accusing Health Secretary Wes Streeting of plotting against him backfired, strengthening Streeting's position and highlighting internal party chaos. This event contributed to market volatility around leadership exit timing.
Starmer battles party dissent amid leadership challenge rumors
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
In November 2025, Starmer faced a crisis of confidence within his party, with senior ministers criticizing his leadership and rumors of a leadership challenge emerging, increasing market doubts about his stability as PM.
Three back-to-back ministerial resignations hit Keir Starmer's government
December 31 jumps to 53%9%
On November 12, 2025, ministers Jess Phillips, Alex Davies-Jones, and Miatta Fahnbulleh resigned, publicly calling for Starmer to step down. This intensified the leadership crisis and increased market expectations of Starmer's exit by the end of 2025.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting denies plotting to oust Starmer amid government crisis
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Wes Streeting publicly denied rumors of plotting against Starmer, but the government faced a crisis with speculation about leadership challenges intensifying just weeks before the budget, impacting market perceptions of Starmer's stability.
Keir Starmer faces growing crisis of contempt among his own MPs
December 31 drops to 40%10%
Widespread mockery and discussions about replacing Keir Starmer began circulating within the Parliamentary Labour Party, signaling a severe erosion of his authority.
Starmer addresses leadership plot rumors, condemns attacks on cabinet members
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Keir Starmer publicly rejected negative briefings against his cabinet and asserted he would fight any leadership challenge, attempting to quell unrest and reassure markets ahead of the budget announcement.
Guardian reports early whispers of Wes Streeting leadership challenge
June 30 plunges to 32%19%
A Guardian article reported that Wes Streeting was quietly preparing a leadership challenge, which began a period of internal rumblings that coincided with a trough in “June 30” odds (32 % on 9 Nov 2025). The news likely contributed to the market’s decline during November 2025.
Labour Party faces internal rebellion with calls for Starmer to resign
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Following poor local election results, over 70 Labour MPs publicly called for Keir Starmer to resign, marking a significant internal party crisis and weakening his hold on power. This increased market doubts about Starmer's longevity as PM.
Mandelson fails security vetting as Starmer leadership crisis deepens
December 31 jumps to 35%7%
The Guardian revealed Peter Mandelson failed security vetting for the U.S. ambassador post, triggering a major scandal that undermined Starmer's judgment and led to the Foreign Office chief's resignation. This caused significant price swings across all outcomes.
Downing Street allies publicly warn against leadership challenge amid internal dissent
June 30 drops to 30%6%
No 10 briefed journalists that Starmer was ready to fight any leadership challenge, highlighting internal party tensions and contributing to market fluctuations in November 2025, affecting short-term outcome prices.
Downing Street allies brief journalists on Starmer's readiness to fight leadership challenge
December 31 dips to 47%3%
No 10's unusual public briefing signaling Starmer's willingness to contest any leadership challenge heightened perceptions of internal party conflict, contributing to market volatility and uncertainty about Starmer's future.
Keir Starmer allies publicly prepare for leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 50%9%
Downing Street allies signaled readiness to fight off leadership challenges, indicating internal party strife and increasing speculation about Starmer's potential ousting. This briefing and the ensuing public disputes, especially with Health Secretary Wes Streeting, heightened market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure.
Downing Street allies publicly challenge Health Secretary Wes Streeting amid leadership rumors
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
No 10 briefed journalists that Starmer was ready to face a leadership challenge, targeting Wes Streeting, which backfired and highlighted internal party divisions, undermining Starmer's authority and increasing market uncertainty.
Keir Starmer publicly prepares to fight off Labour leadership challenge
December 31 drops to 40%10%
Starmer's allies briefed the media that he is ready to contest any leadership challenge following poor election prospects and internal party dissent, signaling political instability and raising market uncertainty about his tenure.
Starmer's allies publicly warn of leadership challenge amid internal party strife
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Downing Street allies briefed journalists that Starmer was ready to face a leadership challenge, escalating public perception of instability and affecting market prices negatively for short-term exit outcomes.
Starmer allies publicly signal readiness to fight Labour leadership challenge
December 31 rises to 52%2%
In November 2025, amid declining approval ratings and internal party tensions, Starmer's allies indicated he was preparing to contest any leadership challenge, signaling deepening party divisions and uncertainty about his future. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for his continued premiership by mid-2026.
Leaked brief warns Starmer prepared for leadership challenge
June 30 drops to 36%8%
A leaked Downing Street briefing warned that Starmer was ready to “fight any leadership challenge,” spotlighting an imminent internal revolt. The report sparked a sharp fall in the “June 30” market (‑8 points on 2025‑11‑22) and a brief rise then fall in the “December 31” market.
Allies of Keir Starmer warn he will fight any leadership challenge from Labour MPs
December 31 surges to 57%22%
Allies of the Prime Minister briefed the media that Starmer would aggressively fight off any challenge to his leadership, revealing deep anxieties within Downing Street about his immediate survival.
Keir Starmer's allies warn he will fight any leadership challenge amid rising internal dissent
June 30 jumps to 42%8%
Following poor polling and internal party unrest, Starmer's allies publicly stated he would contest any leadership challenge, signaling a battle for his position. This announcement caused market fluctuations, particularly affecting the June 30 and December 31 outcomes.
Keir Starmer's allies brief journalists on readiness to face leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Downing Street's briefing that Starmer was prepared to fight a leadership challenge marked a public acknowledgment of internal party tensions, contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Labour suffers disastrous local election results, sparking calls for Starmer's resignation
December 31 jumps to 44%9%
Following poor local election results in November 2025, Labour faced significant losses, leading to increased pressure on Starmer from within his party. This event triggered a sharp rise in market prices for Starmer's exit by December 31, 2025, reflecting growing expectations of his departure.
Downing Street allies signal readiness to fight Labour leadership challenge
On November 11, 2025, No 10 briefed journalists that Keir Starmer was prepared to face any leadership challenge, targeting rivals like Health Secretary Wes Streeting. This public stance amid internal party tensions highlighted Starmer's determination to remain PM, impacting market perceptions of his short-term exit chances.
Downing Street briefings reveal Starmer ready to fight leadership challenge
December 31 dips to 48%2%
An anonymous briefing from Starmer's allies warning of his readiness to face leadership challenges backfired, highlighting internal party divisions and weakening his position. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in confidence for his short-term survival.
Downing Street Briefing Sparks Public Debate Over Potential Leadership Challenge
December 31 jumps to 51%7%
Allies of Keir Starmer briefed journalists that he would fight any attempt to replace him, effectively firing the starting pistol on a public leadership debate and targeting Health Secretary Wes Streeting.
Keir Starmer prepares to fight off Labour leadership challenge amid mounting pressure
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Starmer privately vowed to resist any leadership challenge following poor polling and anticipated electoral setbacks. His allies increased briefings against rivals, signaling a tense internal party battle that raised market expectations of his potential departure later in 2025.
Downing Street signals Starmer ready to fight leadership challenge
June 30 jumps to 48%14%
An anonymous Starmer ally briefed journalists that the Prime Minister would fight any leadership challenge, a move seen as political self-harm that intensified internal party conflict and affected market prices for June 30 and December 31 outcomes.
Keir Starmer's allies publicly acknowledge leadership challenge brewing
June 30 drops to 36%8%
Downing Street allies openly briefed journalists that Starmer was ready to face a leadership challenge, signaling internal party strife and increasing market uncertainty about his tenure.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political storm and raising doubts about Starmer's leadership, contributing to market uncertainty for the December 31 outcome.
Senior Cabinet ministers rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson security vetting scandal
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Starmer received public support from senior ministers after revelations that Mandelson failed security checks but was appointed ambassador, temporarily stabilizing his position and affecting market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer faces calls to resign after local elections deliver losses for Labour
June 30 drops to 23%10%
Labour suffered significant losses in local elections, seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership amid ongoing scandals and economic struggles. Despite pressure, Starmer refused to resign, impacting market confidence negatively for the June 30 outcome.
UK leader’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment amid Epstein scandal
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite Epstein ties, intensifying pressure on Starmer's leadership and causing market shifts for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment scandal
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein sparked a political crisis for Starmer, with calls for his resignation and internal party dissent. This caused a significant rise in the December 31 outcome price as the risk of Starmer leaving increased.
Labour Party suffers major losses in local and regional elections
December 31 drops to 44%6%
The governing Labour Party experienced significant losses in local and regional elections, which were widely viewed as a referendum on Starmer's leadership and his handling of the Mandelson scandal.
Allies rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson‑Epstein controversy
Senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after the revelation that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, had been appointed ambassador to the United States despite failing security vetting. The show of party unity temporarily halted the market’s slide.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns amid leadership crisis
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Wes Streeting resigned from the cabinet, citing lost confidence in Starmer's leadership and signaling a serious leadership challenge, which caused market prices for Starmer's departure to rise.
Starmer aides warn against leadership challenge ahead of autumn budget
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Senior aides to Keir Starmer publicly described any attempt to remove him before the November 26 budget as "reckless" and "dangerous," aiming to deter internal party plots and stabilize market confidence ahead of a critical fiscal announcement.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein appointment sparks leadership crisis
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Senior ministers publicly defended Starmer after the revelation that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, was appointed ambassador to the U.S. despite failed security vetting, intensifying pressure for a leadership challenge.
Starmer faces parliamentary revolt over Mandelson appointment
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Senior ministers publicly backed Starmer as opposition lawmakers demanded his resignation over the appointment of Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, to the U.S. ambassadorship, pushing Yes prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Revelations emerge that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
December 31 surges to 74%30%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security checks before becoming UK ambassador to the US, raising questions about Starmer's judgment and triggering political fallout. This news caused a sharp increase in market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure through December 31, 2025.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson appointment sparks leadership doubts
Cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after the revelation that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, was appointed ambassador to the U.S. despite failing security vetting, raising questions about Starmer’s judgment and prompting a price rise for a resignation outcome.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein sparked a political crisis, with calls for Starmer's resignation and internal party dissent, causing market uncertainty.
UK Prime Minister’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 jumps to 60%6%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political storm and raising doubts about Starmer's leadership, which pushed market prices higher for Starmer's exit by December 31.
Revelation of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties rocks Starmer government
December 31 rises to 54%4%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, despite Starmer's claims of full due process. This scandal led to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant and intensified calls for Starmer's resignation, causing market prices for Starmer's departure to rise significantly for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies
June 30 dips to 34%3%
Starmer publicly apologized, acknowledging he had believed Mandelson's claims about the Epstein connection. This admission further damaged his credibility.
Starmer visits China seeking economic boost amid domestic challenges
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Starmer’s trip to China aimed to improve UK-China relations and secure economic investment to counteract domestic political and economic difficulties, providing some support to his leadership but with ongoing uncertainty reflected in market prices for June 30 outcome.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves admits letting family home mistake amid scandals
June 30 rises to 36%3%
The admission of mistakes by key cabinet members like Rachel Reeves undermined Starmer's promise of a clean government, maintaining market skepticism about his survival as PM.
Starmer apologizes to Epstein victims, admits Mandelson lied
June 30 dips to 33%2%
Starmer publicly apologized to victims of Jeffrey Epstein for appointing Mandelson, acknowledging the ambassador had lied about his relationship with Epstein. This admission increased political pressure but did not immediately trigger resignation, reflected in a slight market price decline.
Downing Street briefing signals Starmer ready to fight leadership challenge
June 30 drops to 37%5%
An anonymous Starmer ally's briefing that the Prime Minister is prepared to face any leadership challenge publicly highlighted internal party tensions. This event contributed to a market decline from 42% to 37%, reflecting increased uncertainty about Starmer's hold on power.
Starmer remains unpopular but resilient amid political volatility
June 30 rises to 34%1%
Despite being the most unpopular UK Prime Minister ever, Starmer has shown resilience, recovering from setbacks and avoiding resignation, which tempered market expectations for his ousting by mid-2025.
Labour suffers electoral setback and internal party defeats
June 30 dips to 33%3%
Labour's poor performance in a by-election and internal party defeats, including the election of a critical MP to a key position, further weakened Starmer's position and reduced market confidence in his tenure by June 30, 2025.
Starmer reshuffles team amid leadership pressure
June 30 dips to 33%3%
In an effort to regain political initiative after a troubled year, Starmer conducted a reshuffle of his senior team, pushing out some progressive allies. This was seen as a move to consolidate control but also highlighted ongoing instability, contributing to a slight decline in market confidence about his tenure.
Labour MPs warn local election wipeout could end Starmer's leadership
June 30 dips to 33%2%
Following poor local election results, several Labour MPs warned that a wipeout would likely lead to Starmer's removal as leader, increasing political pressure but not immediate resignation. Market prices remained low, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about his tenure.
Poll shows only a quarter of Labour members want Starmer to resign if Senedd election lost
June 30 rises to 36%2%
A Survation poll revealed limited support within Labour membership for Starmer's resignation even if the party lost the upcoming Senedd election, reducing immediate pressure on his leadership and contributing to price stabilization.
Labour suffers crushing defeat in Caerphilly by-election, raising fears for Starmer
June 30 dips to 33%3%
Labour's vote collapsed to 11% in Caerphilly, a traditional Labour stronghold, with Plaid Cymru winning the seat. This defeat alarmed Labour MPs and intensified speculation that a similar result in the May 2026 local elections could end Starmer's premiership, causing market prices for his early exit to rise.
Starmer rejects calls to resign over Mandelson appointment despite pressure
Despite mounting pressure and calls for resignation from opposition and some within his party, Starmer publicly rejected demands to step down, asserting due process was followed. This stance stabilized the market somewhat, preventing further price declines for the June 30 outcome.
Starmer faces intensified scrutiny over Mandelson’s failed security vetting
June 30 drops to 33%5%
Revelations that Mandelson failed security vetting before his ambassadorial appointment and that Starmer may have misled Parliament intensified calls for his resignation, increasing political instability and impacting market confidence in Starmer’s survival through June 30.
Market trough at 34% after local election losses for Labour
The market fell to 34% on October 20 following the local election results showing Labour losses and Reform UK gains, further undermining Starmer's position. This was part of a broader market trend from 38% to 33% on October 29.
Labour suffers major losses in local elections, Starmer under pressure
June 30 dips to 33%1%
Labour suffered significant losses in local elections, with Reform UK making major gains, further damaging Starmer's popularity and triggering calls for him to step down.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham from Parliament bid
June 30 rises to 34%3%
Labour denied Andy Burnham permission to run in a special election, sparking internal party conflict. This decision was seen as an attempt to prevent a potential leadership challenge.
Starmer begins China visit to boost trade and ease political pressure
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Starmer travelled to Beijing for talks with President Xi Jinping, aiming to secure economic benefits and demonstrate diplomatic strength. The move was interpreted as a positive signal for the government’s stability, prompting a modest rebound in the June‑30 price.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
June 30 drops to 31%6%
Local and regional elections delivered significant losses for Labour and major gains for Reform UK, with Starmer's popularity plummeting. This triggered widespread calls for him to resign.
Labour suffers humiliating loss in Caerphilly by-election
June 30 drops to 31%6%
Labour's poor performance in the Caerphilly by-election intensified doubts about Starmer's leadership, causing a sharp market price drop reflecting decreased confidence in his tenure.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson-Epstein scandal
June 30 dips to 33%4%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the controversial appointment of Mandelson. This resignation intensified the political crisis around Starmer, contributing to a market price drop reflecting increased risk of Starmer leaving office by June 30.
Labour Party faces leadership crisis after Mandelson scandal
June 30 dips to 39%4%
The Mandelson scandal has triggered a leadership crisis within Labour, with opposition parties calling for Starmer to resign and potential rivals like Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham emerging.
Starmer refuses to quit after heavy local‑election losses
June 30 drops to 33%5%
Following the local and regional elections that saw Labour lose more than half the seats it defended, Starmer publicly announced he would not resign. The news signaled continued internal party tension and kept the June‑30 outcome depressed as traders assessed the risk of a leadership challenge.
Starmer faces parliamentary challenge over Mandelson Epstein scandal
June 30 dips to 40%4%
Following revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer faced intense scrutiny in Parliament. This event heightened concerns about Starmer's leadership and caused a notable market reaction, particularly impacting the June 30 outcome.
Downing Street briefing signals Starmer ready to fight leadership challenge
June 30 jumps to 40%5%
An unusual briefing from Starmer's allies warned potential leadership challengers that he was prepared to contest any attempt to remove him. This move was seen as a sign of internal party conflict but also Starmer's determination to remain in office, which stabilized market expectations temporarily.
UK sanctions Russian GRU officers over cyber‑espionage attack
The AP detailed a new sanctions package targeting Russian intelligence officers, which was interpreted as a strong security stance by Starmer and nudged the December‑31 contract upward.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment decision
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, a move that further damaged Starmer's standing within the party.
Starmer pushes out progressive allies in major Downing Street staff shake-up
June 30 dips to 40%4%
Following a turbulent summer and high-profile departures, Starmer restructured his internal team to regain control of the government's narrative.
Starmer Shakes Up Downing Street Team to Regain Political Initiative
June 30 rises to 44%2%
In an effort to combat falling poll numbers and establish a stronger narrative, Starmer pushed out several progressive allies in a major No 10 internal staff reshuffle.
Starmer accused of pushing out progressive allies in Downing Street shake-up
June 30 dips to 40%4%
Starmer launched a major internal reorganization of his No 10 team, empowering Darren Jones but drawing criticism for pushing out key progressive policy and communications figures.
Starmer's Approval Ratings Hit Record Low of 13% in Ipsos Polling
A damning Ipsos survey revealed that only 13% of Britons were satisfied with Starmer's performance, marking the lowest rating for any sitting Prime Minister since tracking began in 1977.
French Prime Minister Resigns After Less Than a Month in Office, Spurring Gilt Market Jitters
The sudden resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu after just 27 days in office triggered European market volatility, putting upward pressure on UK government bond yields.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, with Reform UK making major gains, threatening Starmer's position. This occurred during the market's price recovery phase to 43%.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein scandal erupts
June 30 drops to 38%5%
AP reported that senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, had been appointed ambassador to the United States despite failing security vetting. The scandal intensified pressure on Starmer’s leadership, driving the June‑30 contract price down from its early‑October high.
Revelation of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties sparks UK political crisis
December 31 jumps to 60%10%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, despite Starmer's claims of due process. This led to intense scrutiny of Starmer's judgment and integrity, causing market prices for Starmer's departure to rise significantly for the December 31 outcome.
Revelations emerge that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
December 31 rises to 54%4%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson, appointed ambassador to the US by Starmer, failed security vetting, contradicting Starmer's claims of full due process. This sparked a political crisis and led to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant, Olly Robbins, raising questions about Starmer's knowledge and judgment.
Peter Mandelson sacked over Jeffrey Epstein links
June 30 rises to 43%4%
The sacking of Peter Mandelson amid scandal further damaged Starmer's image of integrity, contributing to market price increases reflecting higher perceived risk of Starmer leaving office.
Market shows slight rebound amid ongoing uncertainty over Starmer's future
June 30 jumps to 43%6%
Despite ongoing political pressure and unresolved questions about the Mandelson scandal, the market price for Starmer's resignation by June 30 rose modestly, reflecting some stabilization but continued uncertainty.
Revelation that Peter Mandelson appointed ambassador despite failing security vetting
December 31 rises to 54%4%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security vetting before his ambassadorial appointment, contradicting Starmer's claims of full due process. This revelation led to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant and raised serious questions about Starmer's knowledge and judgment, impacting the December 31 outcome price.
Starmer defends his record after local election losses
June 30 rises to 46%4%
Following a poor showing in local elections, Starmer publicly refused to resign, stabilising the market and nudging the price back up to 46 % as investors reassessed the likelihood of a leadership challenge.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat amid leadership tensions
June 30 rises to 43%4%
Labour's decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary by-election fueled internal party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges to Starmer, sustaining market doubts about his position.
Chancellor admits breaking housing rules by renting out family home
June 30 drops to 42%5%
Labour's chancellor admitted to 'inadvertently' breaking housing regulations by renting out her south London home without the required £945 licence, undermining Starmer's image of a squeaky clean administration and triggering market concern about government credibility.
Starmer’s policy push yields temporary bump in polls
June 30 drops to 33%9%
The Economist’s interactive tracker posted on 5 October 2025 showed a modest uptick in Starmer’s approval after a brief policy announcement. The slight optimism coincided with a small dip in the “June 30” market (price fell from 42 % to 33 % over the following weeks).
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
June 30 dips to 44%3%
Starmer publicly apologized for having believed Mandelson's claims about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, further undermining his credibility and intensifying calls for him to resign.
Starmer apologizes for 'believing Mandelson's lies' amid Epstein scandal
Starmer publicly apologized for having believed Mandelson's claims about the vetting process, acknowledging he was misled. This admission intensified the scandal and contributed to the market's peak at 47% on October 10.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for U.S. ambassador post
The Guardian published documents showing Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before taking up the ambassadorial role, damaging Starmer's reputation and triggering fallout including the Foreign Office chief's resignation. This caused a significant price swing from 43% to 47% on October 5.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
June 30 jumps to 44%6%
Starmer publicly apologized for 'having believed Mandelson's lies' about Epstein ties, acknowledging his judgment was flawed and further undermining his credibility with the public and party.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment
June 30 rises to 43%3%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned, taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Peter Mandelson to the U.S. ambassadorship despite Epstein ties. This further intensified the political fallout.
Starmer faces scrutiny over collapsed China spy trial
June 30 rises to 38%1%
Starmer's government came under pressure over the collapse of a high-profile China spy trial, with accusations of a cover-up and weak handling of national security, damaging his credibility and increasing political risk.
US Justice Department releases Epstein-related documents showing Mandelson shared sensitive info
The US Justice Department released documents showing Mandelson shared market-sensitive information with Epstein during the 2008 financial crisis, reigniting the scandal and political pressure on Starmer. This caused a price spike to 47% before a drop to 39%.
Labour's future under threat as party faces leadership challenge
June 30 dips to 40%2%
With Labour's poll ratings at a low point and the party facing a leadership challenge, Starmer's position remains precarious. The market price briefly rose to 47% before settling at 40%.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for US ambassador post
June 30 rises to 47%4%
The Guardian published documents showing Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before taking up the ambassadorial role, creating a major scandal that damaged Starmer's reputation and triggered political fallout.
Starmer refuses to quit after local elections deliver losses for Labour
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Following poor local election results that saw Labour suffer significant losses and gains by Reform UK, Starmer insisted he would not resign, despite growing calls within his party, causing a partial recovery in market confidence for his continued leadership past June 30.
Frontbench resignation deepens Labour revolt over £5bn benefits cut
June 30 rises to 47%3%
BBC covered the resignation of Labour frontbencher Vicky Foxcroft over Starmer’s £5 billion benefits cut. The internal revolt heightened perceptions of political instability, nudging the market upward to a 47 % “Yes” level on 10 Oct.
Starmer vows not to quit after Labour suffers losses in local elections
June 30 rises to 43%3%
Following significant losses for Labour and gains for Reform UK in local elections, Starmer took responsibility but refused to resign, signaling ongoing leadership uncertainty and contributing to market fluctuations around the June 30 outcome.
Poor local election results deepen Labour Party crisis under Starmer
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, weakening Starmer’s position and fueling speculation about a leadership challenge. Starmer vowed to stay, but internal party dissent increased, keeping market uncertainty high.
Starmer begins diplomatic tour of China to boost trade
June 30 rises to 42%3%
Starmer travelled to Beijing for a strategic partnership meeting with President Xi, a move aimed at revitalising the economy. The visit was welcomed by markets, contributing to a modest price rise from 39 % to 42 % over the next few days.
Local elections deliver heavy losses for Labour, boosting speculation of a leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 57%6%
Labour suffered significant seat losses in the October 2025 local and regional elections, prompting commentators to view the results as a de‑facto referendum on Starmer’s leadership and increasing the market’s belief that he could be forced out before year‑end.
Keir Starmer issues statement on Manchester Synagogue attack
Starmer's response to a terrorist attack demonstrated his role as national leader during crises, but it did not significantly affect market expectations of his tenure.
Starmer chairs emergency meeting after Manchester synagogue attack
Starmer's leadership was tested by a terrorist attack in Manchester, requiring crisis management and public reassurance, but this event had limited direct impact on market exit odds.
UK government agrees to release documents on Mandelson’s ambassador appointment
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Amid mounting anger over the Mandelson-Epstein scandal, the UK government agreed to release documents related to Mandelson’s appointment, aiming to quell criticism but keeping Starmer under pressure for his judgment and leadership.
Labour Party Conference reveals government in chaos with multiple resignations
The Labour Party Conference in Liverpool revealed a government in turmoil with five consecutive resignations or firings of top officials, including No 10 strategist Tom Kibasi, deputy Angela Rayner, US ambassador Peter Mandelson, Paul Ovenden, and Steph Driver, fueling speculation about Starmer's leadership.
Labour faces strategic dilemma amid Reform UK challenge and internal chaos
June 30 rises to 43%3%
Analysis highlighted Labour's ongoing struggles with internal resignations and being behind Reform UK in polls, increasing doubts about Starmer's leadership and survival chances. This contributed to market volatility and a peak in the June 30 outcome price.
Manchester Synagogue Terrorist Attack Prompts Cobra Meeting and Starmer Statement
June 30 dips to 37%3%
A deadly terrorist attack on a Manchester synagogue on Yom Kippur left two dead, prompting Prime Minister Keir Starmer to chair an emergency Cobra meeting and issue a national security statement.
Communications director Tim Allan resigns amid mounting pressure on Starmer
June 30 jumps to 43%6%
Tim Allan, Starmer's communications director, resigned, marking the fourth communications lead to leave under Starmer's premiership. This departure highlighted ongoing instability within Starmer's team and contributed to persistent doubts about his leadership, influencing market sentiment.
Starmer announces restrictions on migrants' use of ECHR in deportation cases
June 30 jumps to 46%8%
Starmer's policy to restrict migrants' use of the European Convention on Human Rights to fight deportation aimed to address the Channel migrant crisis but stirred controversy. This announcement coincided with a market rise from 38% to 46%, reflecting perceived government action amid crisis.
Keir Starmer delivers aggressive Labour conference speech to rally support
June 30 rises to 35%2%
At the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, Starmer gave a passionate speech framing the political battle as a choice between Labour and Reform UK, attempting to regain support amid poor polling and internal party dissent. This temporarily stabilized market sentiment but did not reverse the overall downward trend.
Public Support for Digital ID Collapses Following Starmer's Policy Announcement
June 30 rises to 40%2%
Polling by More in Common revealed that net support for a national digital ID card system plummeted from plus 35% in June to minus 14% following Starmer's formal policy announcement, highlighting his growing unpopularity.
Keir Starmer faces backlash over welfare bill cuts amid Labour rebellion
June 30 drops to 42%9%
The government faced significant opposition over proposed £5 billion welfare cuts, with 42 Labour MPs publicly refusing to support the legislation and 170 MPs expressing concern, damaging Starmer's credibility with party members.
Labour Party Conference exposes government turmoil and leadership doubts
June 30 rises to 40%3%
At the Labour Party Conference, multiple resignations and scandals were highlighted, including the departure of key aides and criticism of Starmer's leadership style. This fueled market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure, causing a price increase for the June 30 outcome from 37% to 40%.
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister over tax affairs
June 30 rises to 39%1%
Angela Rayner's resignation triggered a major cabinet reshuffle and raised questions about Starmer's leadership stability, causing market uncertainty about his continuation as PM.
Analysis questions imminence of Starmer's ousting amid ongoing turmoil
June 30 rises to 39%1%
Despite a turbulent first year marked by resignations and scandals, analysis suggests Starmer's premiership is under severe strain but not imminently ending, contributing to market stabilization around a lower probability of early departure.
Analysis questions Keir Starmer's future amid ongoing political turmoil
June 30 jumps to 42%5%
Media analysis highlighted Starmer's struggles with party unity, public communication, and policy direction, fueling speculation about his potential ousting. Despite this, no immediate resignation occurred, and market prices stabilized around 37-42%.
Keir Starmer delivers keynote Labour conference speech amid low approval ratings
June 30 jumps to 43%10%
Starmer's conference speech aimed to rally his party and counter criticism but was met with mixed reactions, with some viewing it as a 'longest resignation speech' and others noting his failure to connect with voters, reflecting ongoing leadership challenges.
Keir Starmer delivers speech at Labour Party conference in Liverpool seeking to reverse polls
Starmer delivered a crucial keynote speech at the annual Labour Party conference, framing his premiership as a 'fight for the soul of the country' and directly taking on Nigel Farage to stabilize his leadership.
Keir Starmer delivers combative Labour conference speech to fight populist rise
Starmer delivered a high-stakes keynote speech at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, directly attacking Nigel Farage and attempting to shore up party morale amid dismal poll ratings.
Keir Starmer delivers combative conference speech to rally Labour Party against Reform UK
June 30 rises to 38%1%
Starmer sought to reclaim the political initiative and counter leadership challenge rumors with a major speech framing the political landscape as a 'fight for the soul' of Britain.
Starmer delivers Labour conference speech amid leadership doubts and poor polling
Starmer's speech aimed to rally support but was met with skepticism due to ongoing unpopularity and party divisions, maintaining downward pressure on his market odds for staying beyond June 30.
Starmer delivers keynote speech amid leadership criticism
June 30 rises to 34%1%
At the Labour Party conference, Starmer gave a keynote speech defending his leadership and attacking opposition, but faced criticism from former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and others, highlighting internal party divisions and leadership challenges.
Jeremy Corbyn criticizes Starmer's conference speech as 'longest resignation speech'
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn publicly criticized Starmer's keynote speech at the party conference, signaling ongoing internal party tensions. Despite this, the market showed a modest recovery in Starmer's prospects, reflecting mixed sentiments.
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister over tax scandal
June 30 rises to 40%3%
Angela Rayner resigned on September 5, 2025, after an ethics adviser found she breached the ministerial code by underpaying stamp duty on a property purchase. Her departure weakened Starmer's government and increased speculation about his leadership stability during the analysis window.
Starmer delivers combative conference speech declaring 'fight for the soul' of Britain
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Starmer sought to reclaim political momentum and unite his party by directly attacking Nigel Farage and Reform UK during his keynote speech at the annual Labour Party conference.
Starmer delivers combative Labour conference speech against Reform UK
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Starmer's keynote speech framed a 'fight for the soul' of the nation against Nigel Farage's Reform UK, but failed to improve his standing amid ongoing political challenges. The market showed some recovery after this event, rising from 33% to 38%, indicating cautious optimism.
Keir Starmer delivers high-stakes Labour conference speech to fight for political survival
Starmer used his keynote speech at the annual Labour Party conference to directly attack Nigel Farage and Reform UK, attempting to rally his party and reverse his historically low approval ratings.
Starmer calls for Labour unity against rising Reform UK at party conference
June 30 jumps to 38%6%
At the Labour Party conference, Starmer urged unity against the populist Reform UK party amid growing dissatisfaction with his government. This event reflected ongoing challenges but also Starmer's efforts to consolidate support, coinciding with a slight market recovery to 38% Yes for June 30.
Keir Starmer delivers longest resignation speech at Labour conference amid leadership doubts
December 31 drops to 44%6%
Starmer's lengthy conference speech was widely interpreted as a resignation speech, signaling his precarious position and fueling speculation about his imminent departure. This event contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure, impacting prices for later exit dates.
Starmer delivers longest resignation speech at Labour conference
June 30 rises to 37%4%
At the Labour Party conference, Starmer gave a lengthy speech that critics described as a 'resignation speech,' highlighting his precarious position amid party turmoil and poor public support. This event reinforced market doubts about his political future, keeping the probability of his departure elevated.
Starmer delivers keynote speech at Labour conference amid unpopularity
June 30 rises to 40%3%
Facing plummeting approval ratings and internal party dissent, Starmer sought to rally support at the Labour Party conference, attacking the populist Reform UK party and calling for unity. Despite this, polls showed him as the UK's most unpopular leader on record, maintaining pressure on his leadership and limiting market optimism.
Starmer Delivers High-Stakes 'Fork in the Road' Speech at Labour Conference
Starmer delivered a politically aggressive keynote speech in Liverpool, framing the future as a choice between Labour's renewal and Reform UK's division, which helped rally his party and temporarily ease leadership coup speculation.
Starmer delivers high-stakes Labour conference speech to fight for political survival
June 30 rises to 38%1%
Starmer delivered a combative keynote speech at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, framing his leadership as a 'fight for the soul of the country' to counter threats from both the left and Reform UK.
Starmer delivers keynote speech amid party criticism
December 31 rises to 51%1%
At the Labour Conference, Starmer gave a keynote speech attempting to rally support, but faced criticism from former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and others, highlighting ongoing leadership challenges and limited market impact on his longer-term survival odds.
Keir Starmer delivers keynote speech at Labour Party conference amid unpopularity
June 30 jumps to 42%5%
Starmer addressed his party conference in Liverpool, framing the political contest as a battle for the soul of the country against Reform UK. Despite his efforts, polls showed him as the UK's most unpopular prime minister, reflecting ongoing political vulnerability.
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister triggering major reshuffle
December 31 drops to 43%7%
Angela Rayner's resignation in late September 2025 led to a significant cabinet reshuffle with over half of ministers changing roles or leaving government, signaling instability and contributing to market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure through December 31.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns amid tax scandal
Angela Rayner resigned as Deputy Prime Minister in late September 2025 after admitting to underpaying stamp duty on a second home, triggering a cabinet reshuffle and signaling instability within Starmer's government. This event contributed to declining confidence in Starmer's leadership and Labour's internal cohesion.
Labour Party conference highlights leadership crisis amid poor local election results
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The Labour Party conference underscored internal dissent and calls for Starmer's resignation following poor election performances, contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Starmer addresses Labour Party conference amid mounting pressure
Starmer’s appearance at the Labour Party conference intensified media focus on his leadership, briefly lifting the Yes‑price for the August 31 outcome as commentators debated his staying power.
70+ Labour MPs demand Starmer’s resignation at conference
June 30 plunges to 14%51%
At the Labour Party conference, more than 70 MPs publicly called for Starmer’s resignation. The “June 30” contract fell sharply from 65 % to 14 % in the following week, reflecting near‑certain belief that Starmer would be ousted before year‑end.
Labour Party conference sees growing calls for Starmer to resign
December 31 rises to 54%4%
At the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, a growing number of Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to resign, with 77 MPs demanding his departure, signaling a critical loss of party support and increasing market expectations of his exit by year-end.
At Labour Party conference, PM Starmer’s rival steals the limelight
June 30 rises to 38%3%
The Labour Party conference opened with Andy Burnham publicly challenging Starmer’s leadership. Coverage by Reuters highlighted the internal rivalry and the possibility of a leadership contest, pushing market optimism for a June 30 resignation upward to 38 % on Sep 30.
Labour Party conference highlights growing calls for Starmer to resign
December 31 dips to 49%2%
The conference underscored the internal party rebellion with many MPs publicly calling for Starmer's resignation following poor election results, intensifying pressure on his leadership.
Local elections deliver heavy losses for Labour, boost Reform UK
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
AP covered the September local and regional elections, showing Labour’s significant seat losses and gains for Reform UK, reinforcing perceptions of Starmer’s weakening mandate and further depressing the June 30 outcome.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein ambassador appointment
June 30 rises to 44%1%
Starmer’s chief of staff resigned taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer’s judgment. This event heightened pressure on Starmer’s leadership, affecting market confidence in his tenure lasting through June 30.
Labour Party faces internal rebellion after local election losses
Labour suffered substantial losses in local elections, prompting calls for leadership change and contributing to market volatility.
Starmer faces tough Labour conference amid leadership doubts
June 30 rises to 35%2%
As the Labour conference began, Starmer faced significant internal party challenges and public criticism, but allies expressed hope he could prove doubters wrong. This helped stabilize and slightly increase market confidence in his staying power past June 30, 2025.
Starmer rejects calls to resign amid mounting pressure over Mandelson scandal
June 30 rises to 38%3%
Despite growing calls from opposition and some within his party to resign over the Mandelson appointment and vetting failures, Starmer publicly rejected resignation demands, attempting to stabilize his position. This led to a partial recovery in market confidence.
Keir Starmer arrives at Labour conference facing leadership challenges
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Starmer's attendance at the Labour conference was seen as a critical moment to restore confidence amid ongoing criticism and resignations. Market prices began to recover slightly as allies expressed hope he could prove doubters wrong, pushing the price from 33% to 35%.
Ipsos Poll Finds Keir Starmer is the Least Popular UK Prime Minister on Record
June 30 rises to 39%4%
A devastating Ipsos poll revealed Starmer's approval ratings had collapsed to historic lows, fueling intense speculation about his political survival ahead of the Labour conference.
Ipsos Poll Finds Starmer is the Least Popular UK Prime Minister on Record
June 30 rises to 38%3%
A devastating Ipsos poll showed Starmer's satisfaction rating dropping to just 13%, the lowest recorded for any British Prime Minister since polling began in 1977.
Starmer named least‑popular UK prime minister in historic poll
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
A Telegraph poll released on 27 September 2025, citing Ipsos data, named Starmer the least‑popular UK prime minister on record. The stark headline spooked traders, triggering a sharp rise in the “December 31” probability, which jumped from the low‑40s to above 60 % in the following weeks.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
May 31 jumps to 44%6%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, with Starmer's popularity plummeting and the hard-right Reform UK making major gains, triggering calls for Starmer to step down.
Starmer's deputy David Lammy defends integrity on Mandelson appointment
June 30 rises to 38%3%
David Lammy stated that if Starmer had known about the vetting issues, he would never have appointed Mandelson, attempting to defend Starmer's judgment during the ongoing scandal.
Starmer vows not to resign after local elections deliver losses for Labour
June 30 rises to 38%3%
Following poor local election results with significant losses for Labour and gains for Reform UK, Starmer took responsibility but refused to quit, stabilizing market sentiment temporarily despite ongoing leadership doubts.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
Starmer publicly apologized for having believed Mandelson's claims about his Epstein ties, acknowledging he misled Parliament. This occurred during the market's price recovery phase to 38%.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Labour lost more than half the seats it was defending in local elections, with Reform UK making major gains, directly threatening Starmer's position and triggering calls for him to resign.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
May 31 rises to 35%1%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, with its poll ratings plummeting and the party facing a leadership challenge. This electoral setback increased pressure on Starmer to step down.
Labour suffers big losses in local elections; Starmer refuses to quit
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Labour's poor performance in local elections, with significant losses and gains by Reform UK, intensified pressure on Starmer's leadership. Starmer's refusal to resign despite the setbacks contributed to ongoing market uncertainty about his tenure.
UK police open criminal investigation into Mandelson over alleged leaks to Epstein
June 30 rises to 38%3%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson for misconduct in public office related to his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, escalating the scandal and increasing political pressure on Starmer, reflected in market volatility around June 30 outcome.
Starmer faces leadership challenge amid cabinet reshuffle and resignations
Starmer conducted a cabinet reshuffle following the resignation of deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and other aides, attempting to stabilize his government. However, the reshuffle was seen as rushed and failed to restore confidence, keeping resignation odds elevated.
Keir Starmer dismisses leadership threat amid rival Andy Burnham's challenge talk
Starmer publicly dismissed leadership challenge rumors following criticism from Labour mayor Andy Burnham, who is seen as a potential successor. This internal party tension reflected growing doubts about Starmer's leadership, influencing market sentiment.
Andy Burnham signals potential Labour leadership challenge to Starmer
June 30 rises to 32%1%
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham revealed that Labour MPs were urging him to challenge Starmer's leadership, increasing political pressure and uncertainty around Starmer's tenure. This news contributed to market volatility and sustained lower odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30.
Starmer to introduce digital ID cards to tackle illegal migration
June 30 jumps to 43%5%
The Islington Gazette reported that Starmer would unveil a new digital ID scheme to curb illegal migration. The policy announcement lifted market confidence, contributing to the gradual rise from the mid‑30 % range toward a 43 % level by early October.
Andy Burnham stokes leadership speculation as MPs reportedly urge him to challenge Starmer
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham publicly revealed that Labour MPs have been privately encouraging him to return to Westminster and challenge Starmer, highlighting deep internal party divisions.
Starmer Dismisses Leadership Threat as Andy Burnham Stokes Challenge Rumors
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham stoked speculation of a leadership challenge by revealing MPs had urged him to find a route back to Westminster, prompting Starmer to publicly dismiss the threat.
Keir Starmer announces plans for digital ID cards amid migration concerns
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Starmer announced a new digital ID card system to tackle illegal migration, aiming to show government action on key issues. This policy announcement helped stabilize some market confidence temporarily.
Starmer’s head of communications Steph Driver quits
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Steph Driver, a key communications figure for Starmer, announced her departure from Downing Street, marking another significant exit from the Prime Minister's inner circle. This added to the narrative of a crisis-hit government and further eroded market confidence in Starmer's stability.
Keir Starmer's director of communications Steph Driver resigns amid government turmoil
Steph Driver, a key communications aide to Starmer, resigned, marking another blow to the Prime Minister's team amid ongoing scandals and resignations, signaling internal instability and weakening Starmer's position.
Andy Burnham fuels leadership challenge talk ahead of Labour conference
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham did not deny interest in the Labour leadership and revealed that Labour MPs had privately urged him to return to Westminster to replace Starmer.
Starmer's communications director Steph Driver resigns
Steph Driver, a long-serving communications director for Starmer, resigned despite the Prime Minister's pleas, further weakening his communications team and signaling ongoing instability within his administration.
UK's Starmer dismisses leadership threat as rival stokes talk of challenge
Starmer publicly dismissed a potential leadership challenge from Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who had been privately encouraged by MPs to run, emphasizing his focus on economic stability.
Andy Burnham signals potential leadership challenge to Keir Starmer
June 30 dips to 32%1%
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham publicly acknowledged that Labour MPs were urging him to challenge Starmer, increasing leadership uncertainty and pressuring Starmer's position. This contributed to market volatility and sustained lower odds for Starmer remaining PM by June 30, 2025.
Keir Starmer announces plan for digital ID cards amid migration concerns
Starmer announced plans to introduce digital ID cards to tackle illegal migration, signaling a policy shift and an attempt to regain public support. This announcement temporarily stabilized market sentiment but did not directly affect resignation odds.
Starmer Dismisses Leadership Threat After Andy Burnham Stokes Challenge Talk
Starmer dismissed speculation about his leadership after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham revealed he had been privately urged by MPs to challenge the Prime Minister.
Electoral Calculus poll shows majority of British public want Keir Starmer to resign
June 30 rises to 35%2%
A new poll revealed that 54% of the public wanted Starmer to step down, highlighting a severe crisis of confidence in his leadership.
Starmer dismisses Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins over Mandelson vetting crisis
June 30 rises to 34%1%
Starmer sacked Olly Robbins following revelations that the Foreign Office overruled security vetting to appoint Mandelson, escalating the crisis and increasing pressure on Starmer's government.
Starmer's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney faces scrutiny over hidden donations
Reports emerged that Starmer's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, was advised to describe hundreds of thousands of pounds in hidden donations to the Labour Together think tank as an administrative error, raising questions about Starmer's judgment.
Keir Starmer vows to fight on, refuses to resign after aide resignations
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Following the resignations, Starmer publicly declared he would not resign and expressed confidence in his leadership, which helped the market partially recover from its lows.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson despite his Epstein ties. This intensified the political crisis around Starmer, raising questions about his leadership and judgment, contributing to market volatility.
Labour suffers local election losses, Reform UK makes gains
June 30 rises to 34%2%
Local and regional elections delivered losses for Labour and wins for Reform UK, with Starmer stating he would not resign despite poor results, causing market price to rise to 34% on Sep 20.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment advice
June 30 jumps to 33%7%
Morgan McSweeney resigned, taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, further damaging Starmer's reputation and increasing pressure for leadership change.
More than half of Britons want Keir Starmer to resign, GB News poll finds
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
A GB News poll showed 54 % of Britons now want Starmer to resign, up sharply from earlier surveys. The dramatic rise in public demand for his departure pushed the market’s “Yes” probability down from 51 % on Sep 14 to 31 % on Sep 17, reflecting increased belief that a resignation could happen by the June 30 deadline.
Starmer's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson appointment advice
McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the scandal and political pressure on Starmer's leadership. This event occurred during the market's price recovery phase.
Government agrees to release Mandelson appointment files
June 30 rises to 38%4%
Starmer announced the UK would publish documents related to Mandelson’s ambassadorship, aiming to quell criticism but also highlighting the depth of the controversy, which kept pressure on Starmer and maintained the depressed price for the June 30 outcome.
Local and regional elections show heavy losses for Labour
Results released showing Labour losing more than half the seats it defended signaled deep voter dissatisfaction, increasing speculation of a leadership challenge and pushing the market higher for a resignation before the end of 2025.
UK and Norway launch joint naval patrols to protect undersea cables
June 30 dips to 33%1%
AP reported that Starmer and Norway’s prime minister announced a joint naval operation to hunt Russian submarines and safeguard critical infrastructure. The diplomatic move was seen as a positive foreign‑policy achievement, helping the market recover modestly to the mid‑30 % range.
Starmer attempts to stabilize leadership amid growing calls for resignation
June 30 jumps to 32%6%
Starmer made public efforts to address the crisis and reassure the public and party members, leading to a partial recovery in market prices as some confidence was restored.
Labour faces multiple resignations and internal dissent amid leadership doubts
June 30 drops to 28%8%
Following the adviser resignation, further resignations and public criticism from Labour MPs increased pressure on Starmer, causing a further dip in market confidence to 28%. The party's internal struggles and public scandals raised fears about Starmer's ability to maintain leadership through upcoming elections.
Chancellor Reeves distances herself from Starmer in televised interview
July 31 drops to 38%12%
President Donald Trump met Starmer at Chequers, but the visit was followed by a hostile interview by Chancellor Reeves, hinting at a split. The market’s “July 31” price slipped from 50 % to the high‑30s.
US President Donald Trump meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Chequers
December 31 dips to 51%1%
The meeting with Trump was a high-profile diplomatic event amid Starmer's domestic challenges, but it did not significantly improve his political standing or quell internal party unrest.
Poll shows majority of Britons want Starmer to resign
June 30 rises to 33%2%
A poll revealed that 54% of Britons want Starmer to resign, reflecting widespread public dissatisfaction and increasing pressure on his leadership, which influenced market sentiment downward.
Market reacts to mounting pressure on Starmer amid Mandelson fallout
June 30 drops to 26%9%
Following the Mandelson vetting revelations and Robbins' dismissal, the market price for Starmer's resignation dropped to its lowest point, reflecting increased skepticism about his ability to remain in office.
Starmer's chief of staff and communications director resign amid Mandelson fallout
June 30 drops to 26%9%
Morgan McSweeney and Tim Allan resigned within 24 hours due to the Mandelson vetting scandal, intensifying pressure on Starmer and causing further market decline to a low point.
Mandelson appointment scandal leads to Foreign Office top civil servant resignation
Olly Robbins, the Foreign Office's top civil servant, resigned after being forced to clear Mandelson despite vetting concerns, adding to the political fallout. This contributed to the market's low point of 27% and subsequent recovery.
Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer's resignation over Mandelson affair
June 30 drops to 26%9%
Following the Mandelson scandal, several Labour MPs expressed frustration and openly called for Keir Starmer to resign, reflecting growing internal party dissent and weakening his leadership position, which further pushed down the market odds for his resignation by June 30.
Polls show Starmer as least popular UK Prime Minister ever
June 30 drops to 26%11%
Polling data revealed Starmer's personal net satisfaction rating at historic lows, with widespread public dissatisfaction and Labour trailing in polls. This eroded confidence in his leadership and increased market expectations of his potential resignation by mid-2025.
Poll reveals majority of British public want Keir Starmer to resign
June 30 plunges to 27%24%
A new poll conducted by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now revealed that 54% of the public wanted Keir Starmer to step down, reflecting a severe crisis of confidence in his leadership.
Peter Mandelson security vetting scandal breaks, sparking political crisis
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting but was appointed ambassador with Foreign Office override triggered a major political scandal. This led to resignations of Starmer's chief of staff and communications director, and calls for Starmer's resignation, causing a sharp market drop.
Labour MPs warn Starmer will be ousted if local elections go badly
June 30 dips to 34%2%
Labour backbencher Richard Burgon publicly warned that if the May local elections go as predicted with poor results for Labour, Keir Starmer would be ousted as leader. This increased market fears of Starmer's imminent removal, pushing prices down further.
Resignations of Starmer's chief of staff and director of communications amid Mandelson scandal
June 30 drops to 28%8%
Morgan McSweeney and Tim Allan resigned within 24 hours due to fallout from the Peter Mandelson security vetting scandal, undermining confidence in Starmer's leadership and causing a sharp market drop.
Starmer refuses to quit after heavy local election losses
June 30 drops to 27%8%
Following local and regional elections where Labour lost more than half the seats it defended and Reform UK made gains, Starmer announced he would stay on. The poor results heightened speculation of a leadership challenge, causing the June 30 price to fall further from 35% to 27%.
Senior Starmer aide Paul Ovenden resigns over explicit text messages
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
Paul Ovenden, Starmer's director of political strategy, resigned after offensive and sexually explicit text messages about veteran MP Diane Abbott were leaked, intensifying the sense of crisis in Downing Street.
Labour MPs warn Keir Starmer faces ouster next year if local elections end in disaster
June 30 plunges to 27%24%
Left-wing Labour MPs and political commentators warned that Starmer could be forced out of office by May 2025 if the party suffers heavy losses in the upcoming local elections, amid fallout from high-profile resignations.
Chief of staff resigns over Mandelson‑Epstein controversy
June 30 drops to 27%8%
The AP disclosed that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, quit, taking responsibility for advising the Mandelson appointment. The resignation underscored internal turmoil and further lowered confidence in Starmer’s tenure, contributing to the market’s plunge to a low of 27 % on September 17.
MPs warn Keir Starmer faces ousting if local elections fail
On September 15, 2025, Labour MPs warned that Starmer could be ousted as party leader if the upcoming local elections resulted in poor performance, signaling early internal pressure on his leadership. This warning contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure through mid-2026.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for US ambassador post
The Guardian published that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before taking up the ambassadorial role in early 2025, damaging Starmer's credibility and triggering a political crisis. This caused a sharp price peak to 57% before a subsequent drop to 27% on September 17.
Starmer Strategy Chief Quits in Fresh Blow to Crisis-Hit Premier
June 30 plunges to 30%21%
A senior strategy adviser resigned from Downing Street following media allegations about past conduct, marking a series of forced departures that weakened Starmer's early administration.
Senior Cabinet ministers back Starmer amid Mandelson security vetting scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%22%
Despite the scandal over Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties, senior Cabinet ministers publicly supported Starmer, attempting to stabilize his leadership. However, the market reacted with a sharp drop reflecting uncertainty about Starmer's future.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for U.S. ambassador post
June 30 plunges to 27%30%
The Guardian exposed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming U.S. ambassador, creating a major scandal that damaged Starmer's reputation and triggered a sharp price drop to 27% on Sep 17.
Starmer's senior strategy chief resigns amid scandal
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
A senior adviser to Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned following media allegations about his past conduct, marking the third forced departure from his government in less than two weeks. This event intensified perceptions of instability within Starmer's administration, causing a sharp drop in market confidence for the June 30 outcome.
Starmer leads UK delegation to China for strategic partnership talks
AP reported Starmer’s four‑day visit to Beijing, aimed at deepening UK‑China ties, which helped lift longer‑dated contracts as the market saw diplomatic engagement as a sign of political stability.
Top Starmer aide Paul Ovenden resigns over inappropriate messages, deepening Downing Street crisis
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
The resignation of Starmer's director of political strategy, Paul Ovenden, over historical inappropriate messages about Diane Abbott, added to the instability following the recent departures of Angela Rayner and Peter Mandelson.
Starmer's senior aide Paul Ovenden resigns amid scandal
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
Paul Ovenden, Starmer's director of political strategy, resigned following revelations of offensive private messages, compounding recent high-profile resignations and undermining confidence in Starmer's leadership. This event contributed to a sharp market price drop from 51% to 31% Yes for Starmer being out by June 30.
Labour MPs warn Starmer faces ousting if local elections fail
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
Labour MPs publicly warned that unless Starmer improves Labour's performance in upcoming local elections, he risks being ousted as leader, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his tenure, contributing to market volatility.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein scandal erupts
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
AP reported that senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, had been appointed ambassador despite failing security vetting. The scandal intensified pressure on Starmer’s leadership, prompting a sharp drop in the market’s Yes probability.
Starmer's strategy chief resigns amid scandal
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
Keir Starmer suffered a major blow when his director of political strategy resigned following media allegations about inappropriate past conduct. This resignation was part of a series of high-profile departures that undermined confidence in his leadership and contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Starmer's strategy chief quits in fresh blow to crisis-hit premier
June 30 plunges to 30%21%
Prime Minister Keir Starmer suffered another blow to his administration as his director of political strategy, Paul Ovenden, resigned amid media allegations about past conduct.
Labour aide Paul Ovenden resigns over offensive texts amid leadership tensions
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
Paul Ovenden, Starmer's director of political strategy, resigned after offensive texts surfaced, highlighting internal party strife and contributing to perceptions of instability within Starmer's team. This event coincided with a market price drop from 51% to 31% Yes, reflecting increased doubts about Starmer's position by June 30.
Labour MPs Warn Starmer Could Be Ousted Following High-Profile Resignations
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
Following the resignations of Deputy PM Angela Rayner and senior advisers, Labour MPs warned that Starmer could face a leadership challenge if local elections in May go poorly.
Starmer Strategy Chief Paul Ovenden Resigns Amid Conduct Allegations
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
The resignation of strategy chief Paul Ovenden, following the departures of Angela Rayner and Peter Mandelson, deepened the crisis surrounding Starmer's leadership and triggered a sharp drop in market confidence.
Labour MP Richard Burgon warns Starmer will be ousted if local elections end in disaster
June 30 jumps to 57%6%
Left-wing Labour MP Richard Burgon publicly warned that Prime Minister Keir Starmer would likely be forced out of office if the party suffered predicted heavy losses in the upcoming May local elections.
Mandelson vetting scandal revealed: Foreign Office cleared Epstein-linked politician despite security failures
June 30 plunges to 26%31%
The Guardian revealed Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming U.S. ambassador, causing a political crisis and triggering the resignation of Foreign Office's top civil servant, Olly Robbins. This scandal damaged Starmer's reputation and led to calls for his resignation.
Starmer faces mounting pressure after Mandelson sacked as ambassador
June 30 jumps to 44%10%
BBC reporting on 15 September detailed the pressure on Starmer after the sacking of Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador, noting that the scandal was intensifying calls for the prime minister’s resignation. The story coincided with a market trough (26 % on 17 Sep) and a subsequent rebound, marking the June 30 outcome’s movement upward.
Senior Starmer aide resigns over inappropriate messages about Diane Abbott
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
Paul Ovenden, a senior adviser to Keir Starmer, resigned after revelations of inappropriate messages sent about Labour MP Diane Abbott resurfaced. This scandal contributed to market uncertainty and a sharp drop in the probability of Starmer remaining PM by June 30, 2025.
Starmer resignation odds surge after Mandelson vetting scandal
June 30 jumps to 59%8%
Kalshi’s market data show a sharp rise from 51 % to 59 % “Yes” after Reuters‑sourced reporting revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed security vetting for the U.S. ambassador post and that the Foreign Office had over‑ruled the vetting recommendation. The revelation sparked calls for Starmer’s resignation and lifted the probability of him being out before June 2026, driving the market’s June 30 outcome higher.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns triggering major cabinet reshuffle
June 30 plunges to 33%18%
Angela Rayner's resignation over a tax scandal led to a significant government reshuffle, with over half of ministers leaving or changing roles, exacerbating perceptions of crisis within Starmer's administration and contributing to market uncertainty.
Senior adviser to Keir Starmer resigns over inappropriate messages about Diane Abbott
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
Paul Ovenden, a senior adviser to Starmer, resigned after messages he sent about Labour MP Diane Abbott resurfaced, adding to the turmoil within Starmer's team and undermining confidence in his leadership. This event coincided with a sharp drop in the market price for the June 30 outcome from 51% to 36%.
BBC reveals Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
June 30 jumps to 57%6%
BBC reported that Peter Mandelson had failed security vetting before being appointed U.S. ambassador and that Starmer had claimed ignorance. The story triggered a surge in resignation odds, pushing the market to a 57 % “Yes” peak on the same day.
Starmer's Director of Strategy Paul Ovenden resigns amid scandal
June 30 plunges to 28%23%
Paul Ovenden resigned following revelations of inappropriate messages, marking the third senior departure in two weeks and signaling turmoil within Starmer's government. This event contributed to a sharp market drop from 51% to 28% on September 15-17, reflecting increased risk of Starmer's early exit.
Senior Starmer adviser Paul Ovenden resigns over offensive Diane Abbott messages
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
Paul Ovenden, Starmer's director of political strategy, resigned after sexually explicit messages he sent in 2017 about MP Diane Abbott resurfaced, deepening Downing Street's operational crisis.
Labour MPs warn Starmer will be ousted unless he changes course
June 30 plunges to 28%23%
Amid mounting resignations and scandals, Labour MPs publicly warned that Starmer risks losing leadership if the party fails to improve in upcoming local elections, increasing political pressure on the Prime Minister.
Reports emerge of plans to replace Starmer amid internal Labour unrest
June 30 jumps to 57%6%
In September 2025, reports surfaced that groups of Labour MPs were planning to replace Keir Starmer, signaling internal party dissent and undermining his leadership stability. This contributed to initial market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure by mid-September.
Political crisis escalates as Keir Starmer defends Peter Mandelson amid Epstein links
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
On September 14, 2025, British media reported a political crisis as Prime Minister Keir Starmer defended Peter Mandelson, the UK ambassador to the US, who was embroiled in a scandal over his links to Jeffrey Epstein. This intensified scrutiny on Starmer's leadership and contributed to market price drops reflecting increased risk of his early departure.
Revelation of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties rocks Starmer's leadership
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, despite his friendship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. This scandal severely damaged Starmer's credibility and led to calls for his resignation, causing a significant rise in the market probability for Starmer leaving by December 31, 2025.
Keir Starmer faces growing leadership challenges amid Labour's poor election results
June 30 drops to 38%13%
Following Labour's disastrous local election results and internal party divisions, Starmer's leadership began to be questioned, leading to increased speculation about his potential departure. This contributed to a decline in market prices for earlier exit dates.
Starmer's strategy chief resigns amid crisis
June 30 plunges to 34%17%
Prime Minister Keir Starmer suffered a major blow when his strategy chief resigned amid media allegations, signaling instability within his government and contributing to a sharp drop in market confidence for his continuation through June 30, 2025.
Starmer faces backlash after Labour suffers losses in local elections
December 31 dips to 50%1%
Labour's poor performance in local elections led to calls within the party for Starmer to resign, reflecting declining confidence in his leadership amid economic and policy challenges. This event increased market speculation about Starmer's potential departure by year-end.
Revelation that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, contradicting Starmer's claim that full due process was followed. This intensified scrutiny on Starmer's judgment and triggered political fallout including the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant.
Labour MPs begin public calls for Keir Starmer to resign amid poor polling
Following Labour's poor performance in local elections and declining public approval, over 80 Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable, signaling the start of a leadership crisis that pressured the market.
Labour suffers poor local election results, sparking leadership doubts
June 30 drops to 38%13%
Following dire polling and poor local election outcomes, Labour MPs began openly questioning Keir Starmer's leadership, initiating early calls for his resignation and reducing confidence in his premiership.
Labour suffers heavy losses in UK local and regional elections
The local elections delivered a decisive defeat for Starmer’s Labour Party, with the party losing more than half the seats it defended. The result was interpreted as a de‑facto referendum on Starmer’s leadership, prompting a sharp rise in the probability he would step down before year‑end.
Keir Starmer faces growing leadership challenges amid Labour's poor election results
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Following Labour's disappointing local election results and declining public support, Starmer's leadership began to face serious internal challenges, with MPs and party members questioning his direction and ability to lead. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for his continued premiership by mid-2025.
Labour suffers crushing losses in 2025 local elections, sparking leadership doubts
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Labour's poor performance in the 2025 local elections led to widespread criticism of Starmer's leadership, with opposition parties like Reform UK and the Greens making significant gains. This electoral setback intensified calls within Labour for Starmer to reconsider his position, causing a drop in market confidence for his continued premiership by mid-2026.
Police seek man who called for Keir Starmer to be 'assassinated' at far-right rally
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
Following a massive 'Unite the Kingdom' anti-immigration rally in London, police launched an investigation into a man who publicly called for the Prime Minister's assassination, highlighting the extreme security and political pressures facing Starmer.
Four Labour ministers resign amid calls for Starmer to quit after local election losses
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Following devastating local election results, four junior ministers including Jess Phillips resigned from Keir Starmer's government, signaling deepening internal party dissent and increasing pressure on Starmer's leadership. This event caused a notable drop in confidence for Starmer's short-term tenure, impacting the June 30 outcome price.
Reports emerge of plans to replace Starmer among Labour MPs
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Media reports indicated internal Labour plans to replace Starmer, reflecting early leadership instability and influencing market prices downward for near-term resignation outcomes.
Revelations emerge that Peter Mandelson was appointed US ambassador without full security vetting
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
News broke that Peter Mandelson was appointed as UK ambassador to the US before completing in-depth security vetting, raising serious questions about the appointment process and Starmer's judgment. This triggered a sharp drop in the market's price for Starmer's resignation by June 30, reflecting increased perceived risk to his premiership.
Keir Starmer faces leadership challenge amid Labour Party unrest
June 30 jumps to 32%6%
Following Labour's poor local election results, Labour MPs openly called for Starmer's resignation, with threats of a leadership challenge. This internal party unrest increased market expectations of Starmer's removal by June 30, 2026, reflected in rising YES probabilities.
Labour suffers poor local election results, sparking leadership doubts
December 31 plunges to 35%15%
Labour's disappointing performance in the 2025 local elections led to growing doubts about Starmer's leadership and increased speculation about his potential resignation. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for Starmer staying beyond mid-2026.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein sparked a political crisis for Starmer, leading to calls for his resignation and a sharp drop in market confidence for his continued leadership by June 30.
Revelations of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties rock Starmer's leadership
December 31 plunges to 35%15%
The disclosure that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein triggered a major political crisis for Starmer, leading to calls for his resignation and a drop in market confidence for near-term departure.
Allies rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, was appointed ambassador despite failed security vetting. The show of support reduced market fears of an imminent leadership crisis, pulling the June 30 price down from 51% to 35%.
Keir Starmer considers resignation amid Labour Party crisis
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
Reports emerged that Keir Starmer was contemplating resignation due to a political crisis within the Labour Party, exacerbated by poor local election results and internal divisions. This news initially increased market expectations for his departure by June 30, 2026, causing a surge in the relevant market segment.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein scandal erupts
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
AP reported that senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer amid revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, received a diplomatic posting despite failing security vetting, intensifying calls for Starmer’s resignation.
Peter Mandelson dismissed as UK Ambassador amid Epstein ties scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Peter Mandelson was dismissed from his ambassadorial post in September 2025 after revelations of his association with Jeffrey Epstein surfaced, triggering political controversy and scrutiny of Prime Minister Starmer's judgment. This event increased market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure, impacting the June 30 outcome price which dropped from 51% to 35%.
Keir Starmer faces mounting unpopularity amid Mandelson Epstein scandal
December 31 jumps to 55%5%
Revelations about Peter Mandelson's failed security vetting and ties to Jeffrey Epstein surfaced, leading to Starmer dismissing Mandelson and facing intense scrutiny. This scandal marked the beginning of a decline in Starmer's approval and increased political instability.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson Epstein scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer's judgment, which pressured the market downward for the June 30 outcome.
Keir Starmer condemns violence after large anti-immigration march in London
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
Starmer acknowledged the right to peaceful protest following a massive anti-immigration rally but condemned violence against police, highlighting tensions around immigration policy that contributed to political instability and market uncertainty about his leadership.
Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure amid low approval ratings and party dissent
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
Starmer's personal satisfaction ratings hit historic lows, with Labour polling poorly and internal party dissent growing, signaling increased risk to his leadership and contributing to a drop in market confidence for his continuation past June 30.
Peter Mandelson sacked as UK ambassador amid Epstein scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Revelations about Peter Mandelson's close ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and his failed security vetting led to his dismissal as UK ambassador to the US. This event triggered a sharp decline in confidence in Prime Minister Keir Starmer's judgment, causing the market odds for his resignation by June 30 to drop significantly.
Keir Starmer faces mounting internal Labour Party crisis amid poor local election results
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Reports emerged of a political crisis within the Labour Party, with poor local election results leading to calls for Starmer's resignation and cabinet instability. This increased market expectations for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Poll shows majority want Keir Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
A poll released mid-September indicated that 54% of the public wanted Starmer to step down, reflecting a crisis of confidence and contributing to the market's initial drop from 51% to 31%. This public discontent increased doubts about Starmer's survival as PM by June 30, 2025.
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