Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70% implied probability against any US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust amid a single troubled loan, with no further FDIC-reported failures through early April. Banking return on assets holds steady at 1.24%, reflecting solid capital buffers post-2023 reforms despite commercial real estate (CRE) delinquencies nearing 12% on office CMBS loans and $875 billion in maturities looming this year. Regional banks face CRE exposure scrutiny, but large institutions maintain ample reserves. Key upcoming catalyst: Federal Reserve 2026 stress test results due by June 30, testing resilience under severe recession scenarios with unemployment peaking at 10%. Absent contagion signals, traders anticipate stability through quarter-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/06/30
新規
新規
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70% implied probability against any US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust amid a single troubled loan, with no further FDIC-reported failures through early April. Banking return on assets holds steady at 1.24%, reflecting solid capital buffers post-2023 reforms despite commercial real estate (CRE) delinquencies nearing 12% on office CMBS loans and $875 billion in maturities looming this year. Regional banks face CRE exposure scrutiny, but large institutions maintain ample reserves. Key upcoming catalyst: Federal Reserve 2026 stress test results due by June 30, testing resilience under severe recession scenarios with unemployment peaking at 10%. Absent contagion signals, traders anticipate stability through quarter-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
音量
$1終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70% implied probability against any US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust amid a single troubled loan, with no further FDIC-reported failures through early April. Banking return on assets holds steady at 1.24%, reflecting solid capital buffers post-2023 reforms despite commercial real estate (CRE) delinquencies nearing 12% on office CMBS loans and $875 billion in maturities looming this year. Regional banks face CRE exposure scrutiny, but large institutions maintain ample reserves. Key upcoming catalyst: Federal Reserve 2026 stress test results due by June 30, testing resilience under severe recession scenarios with unemployment peaking at 10%. Absent contagion signals, traders anticipate stability through quarter-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
音量
$1終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70% implied probability against any US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust amid a single troubled loan, with no further FDIC-reported failures through early April. Banking return on assets holds steady at 1.24%, reflecting solid capital buffers post-2023 reforms despite commercial real estate (CRE) delinquencies nearing 12% on office CMBS loans and $875 billion in maturities looming this year. Regional banks face CRE exposure scrutiny, but large institutions maintain ample reserves. Key upcoming catalyst: Federal Reserve 2026 stress test results due by June 30, testing resilience under severe recession scenarios with unemployment peaking at 10%. Absent contagion signals, traders anticipate stability through quarter-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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