Recent polls depicting razor-thin margins for Virginia's redistricting referendum underpin trader consensus favoring a narrow Pass by 6-9% at 50.5%, with other victory bins and No Pass clustered tightly below 45%. A Neighborhood Research poll April 1-3 showed 45% Yes to 46% No among likely voters (9% undecided), succeeding a March 26-31 Washington Post-Schar survey at 52% Yes/48% No, as high early voting turnout—over 619,000 ballots—in conservative strongholds signals robust GOP opposition to Democrats' amendment empowering the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms. Partisan splits, multimillion-dollar ad wars featuring confusing messaging, and legal hurdles resolved in March keep the contest deadlocked. Surging Democratic turnout through early voting's April 18 close or shifts in undecideds could tip the balance on Election Day April 21.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Pass 15%+ 44%
Pass 12-15% 37%
Pass 6-9% 36%
Pass 3-6% 35%
新規
新規
2026/04/21
Pass 15%+
44%
Pass 12-15%
37%
Pass 9-12%
34%
Pass 6-9%
36%
Pass 3-6%
35%
Pass <3%
34%
No Pass
30%
Pass 15%+ 44%
Pass 12-15% 37%
Pass 6-9% 36%
Pass 3-6% 35%
新規
新規
2026/04/21
Pass 15%+
$10 Vol.
44%
Pass 12-15%
$10 Vol.
37%
Pass 9-12%
$0 Vol.
34%
Pass 6-9%
$5 Vol.
36%
Pass 3-6%
$0 Vol.
35%
Pass <3%
$0 Vol.
34%
No Pass
$0 Vol.
30%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls depicting razor-thin margins for Virginia's redistricting referendum underpin trader consensus favoring a narrow Pass by 6-9% at 50.5%, with other victory bins and No Pass clustered tightly below 45%. A Neighborhood Research poll April 1-3 showed 45% Yes to 46% No among likely voters (9% undecided), succeeding a March 26-31 Washington Post-Schar survey at 52% Yes/48% No, as high early voting turnout—over 619,000 ballots—in conservative strongholds signals robust GOP opposition to Democrats' amendment empowering the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms. Partisan splits, multimillion-dollar ad wars featuring confusing messaging, and legal hurdles resolved in March keep the contest deadlocked. Surging Democratic turnout through early voting's April 18 close or shifts in undecideds could tip the balance on Election Day April 21.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
音量
$25終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls depicting razor-thin margins for Virginia's redistricting referendum underpin trader consensus favoring a narrow Pass by 6-9% at 50.5%, with other victory bins and No Pass clustered tightly below 45%. A Neighborhood Research poll April 1-3 showed 45% Yes to 46% No among likely voters (9% undecided), succeeding a March 26-31 Washington Post-Schar survey at 52% Yes/48% No, as high early voting turnout—over 619,000 ballots—in conservative strongholds signals robust GOP opposition to Democrats' amendment empowering the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms. Partisan splits, multimillion-dollar ad wars featuring confusing messaging, and legal hurdles resolved in March keep the contest deadlocked. Surging Democratic turnout through early voting's April 18 close or shifts in undecideds could tip the balance on Election Day April 21.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
音量
$25終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls depicting razor-thin margins for Virginia's redistricting referendum underpin trader consensus favoring a narrow Pass by 6-9% at 50.5%, with other victory bins and No Pass clustered tightly below 45%. A Neighborhood Research poll April 1-3 showed 45% Yes to 46% No among likely voters (9% undecided), succeeding a March 26-31 Washington Post-Schar survey at 52% Yes/48% No, as high early voting turnout—over 619,000 ballots—in conservative strongholds signals robust GOP opposition to Democrats' amendment empowering the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms. Partisan splits, multimillion-dollar ad wars featuring confusing messaging, and legal hurdles resolved in March keep the contest deadlocked. Surging Democratic turnout through early voting's April 18 close or shifts in undecideds could tip the balance on Election Day April 21.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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