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icon for カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案

カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案

icon for カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案

カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案

はい

66% 確率
Polymarket
新規

はい

66% 確率
Polymarket
新規
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide in November 2026 whether to make permanent the high-earner income tax surcharge originally approved under Proposition 30 in 2012 and extended through 2030 by Proposition 55. The measure, known as Proposition 3, locks in rates up to 12.3% on income above roughly $360,000 for individuals and $721,000 for couples, directing the resulting $5–15 billion annually primarily to K-12 schools and community colleges. It qualified for the ballot in June 2026 with strong backing from the California Teachers Association and allied education groups. Traders assign the “yes” side a 66% implied probability amid consistent past voter support for extensions, ongoing dependence on these revenues for education funding, and competing tax-related measures on the same ballot, offset by opposition focused on long-term economic effects and high-income migration.

Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
音量
$2,224
終了日
2026/11/03
マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide in November 2026 whether to make permanent the high-earner income tax surcharge originally approved under Proposition 30 in 2012 and extended through 2030 by Proposition 55. The measure, known as Proposition 3, locks in rates up to 12.3% on income above roughly $360,000 for individuals and $721,000 for couples, directing the resulting $5–15 billion annually primarily to K-12 schools and community colleges. It qualified for the ballot in June 2026 with strong backing from the California Teachers Association and allied education groups. Traders assign the “yes” side a 66% implied probability amid consistent past voter support for extensions, ongoing dependence on these revenues for education funding, and competing tax-related measures on the same ballot, offset by opposition focused on long-term economic effects and high-income migration.

Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
音量
$2,224
終了日
2026/11/03
マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

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よくある質問

「カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「カリフォルニア高所得者恒久税提案」で67%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、67¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に67%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Jul 1, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

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「カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案」の現在のフロントランナーは「カリフォルニア高所得者恒久税提案」で67%であり、市場がこの結果に67%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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