Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability for any EU nation's sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 3% of GDP on average across developed European sovereigns and euro area public debt near 88% of GDP, as projected by S&P Global Ratings in early March 2026. France exemplifies vulnerabilities, with Moody's maintaining its Aa3 rating but negative outlook on April 11 amid rising interest payments projected above 5% of revenue by 2027 and political gridlock hindering budgetary consolidation under the EU fiscal framework. Negative outlooks dominate in central and eastern Europe, including Poland and Romania per Fitch, while U.S. tariff threats and geopolitical tensions curb growth forecasts, heightening downgrade risks ahead of scheduled agency reviews like S&P's on France in May.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?
Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?
신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability for any EU nation's sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 3% of GDP on average across developed European sovereigns and euro area public debt near 88% of GDP, as projected by S&P Global Ratings in early March 2026. France exemplifies vulnerabilities, with Moody's maintaining its Aa3 rating but negative outlook on April 11 amid rising interest payments projected above 5% of revenue by 2027 and political gridlock hindering budgetary consolidation under the EU fiscal framework. Negative outlooks dominate in central and eastern Europe, including Poland and Romania per Fitch, while U.S. tariff threats and geopolitical tensions curb growth forecasts, heightening downgrade risks ahead of scheduled agency reviews like S&P's on France in May.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 1:52 PM ET
거래량
$634종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability for any EU nation's sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 3% of GDP on average across developed European sovereigns and euro area public debt near 88% of GDP, as projected by S&P Global Ratings in early March 2026. France exemplifies vulnerabilities, with Moody's maintaining its Aa3 rating but negative outlook on April 11 amid rising interest payments projected above 5% of revenue by 2027 and political gridlock hindering budgetary consolidation under the EU fiscal framework. Negative outlooks dominate in central and eastern Europe, including Poland and Romania per Fitch, while U.S. tariff threats and geopolitical tensions curb growth forecasts, heightening downgrade risks ahead of scheduled agency reviews like S&P's on France in May.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$634종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability for any EU nation's sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 3% of GDP on average across developed European sovereigns and euro area public debt near 88% of GDP, as projected by S&P Global Ratings in early March 2026. France exemplifies vulnerabilities, with Moody's maintaining its Aa3 rating but negative outlook on April 11 amid rising interest payments projected above 5% of revenue by 2027 and political gridlock hindering budgetary consolidation under the EU fiscal framework. Negative outlooks dominate in central and eastern Europe, including Poland and Romania per Fitch, while U.S. tariff threats and geopolitical tensions curb growth forecasts, heightening downgrade risks ahead of scheduled agency reviews like S&P's on France in May.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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