Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" warning by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's strict criteria for this highest alert—reserved for extreme risks of life-threatening disease transmission, such as uncontrolled Ebola or high-fatality pathogens with sustained spread among unvaccinated travelers. Currently, no Level 4 notices exist, with recent upgrades limited to Level 2 enhanced precautions for global polio (March 9, affecting 30+ countries), clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26), meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), and chikungunya outbreaks. Sporadic H5N1 bird flu human cases remain contained without human-to-human transmission signals per CDC surveillance, while vaccination coverage mitigates polio and measles risks. Ongoing epidemiological monitoring by CDC and WHO shows no trajectories toward Level 4 thresholds, though unexpected escalations could shift odds ahead of year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$69,982 거래량
$69,982 거래량
예
$69,982 거래량
$69,982 거래량
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" warning by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's strict criteria for this highest alert—reserved for extreme risks of life-threatening disease transmission, such as uncontrolled Ebola or high-fatality pathogens with sustained spread among unvaccinated travelers. Currently, no Level 4 notices exist, with recent upgrades limited to Level 2 enhanced precautions for global polio (March 9, affecting 30+ countries), clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26), meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), and chikungunya outbreaks. Sporadic H5N1 bird flu human cases remain contained without human-to-human transmission signals per CDC surveillance, while vaccination coverage mitigates polio and measles risks. Ongoing epidemiological monitoring by CDC and WHO shows no trajectories toward Level 4 thresholds, though unexpected escalations could shift odds ahead of year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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